Medicare Is Turning Point Battle for 2012

In recent American political history, changes in political momentum typically revolve around a seminal political battle.

After the Republican sweep in 1994, that battle was over the GOP plan to cut Medicare to provide tax cuts for the rich. It featured Newt Gingrich's government shutdown and his subsequent retreat in 1995. From that point forward, Clinton built momentum and ultimately defeated the Republican nominee Bob Dole by 8.5 percentage points.

A similar decisive battle turned the tide ten years later, after the Republican victory in 2004. In the months following their defeat, Democratic prospects looked bleak. Republicans controlled the Senate, House and the Presidency and were poised to seize control of the Supreme Court for a generation.

But then Bush and his Wall Street allies launched a massive effort to privatize Social Security -- a move designed both to eviscerate the social insurance program that lay at the foundation of the New Deal and to allow Wall Street to get its hands on the Social Security Trust fund. President Bush toured the country to stump for his plan, the Republican leadership signed on in support.

Democrats stood solidly against the proposal and together -- with the labor movement and other progressive organizations -- ran a campaign that ultimately forced the Republicans to drop the proposal without even so much as a vote in Congress. It turned out that privatizing Social Security -- which would have simultaneously lowered guaranteed benefits, and increased the deficit -- had zero traction with ordinary voters who believed that the money they had paid into Social Security entitled them to the promised guaranteed benefits.

Full Article