Toronto as we know it is about to undergo drastic surgery. What emerges by year’s end could be a fiscal transformation that ushers in a period of municipal budget wonder or a civic catastrophe.Mayor Rob Ford, the catalyst behind the unprecedented makeover, is such a polarizing leader — and proud of it — that the transition is bound to be tumultuous.
This week’s dizzying blitz of proposed service cuts sets up another round of daily offerings, starting Monday — an orchestrated raid with one main goal: the sacking of Toronto the Good, Toronto the Beautiful, Toronto the Caring, Toronto the Livable.
The stated intent is to wrestle with a $774 million budget shortfall, an annual but manageable challenge. But that’s only a convenient ruse to deliver what Ford has intended since he arrived at city hall: to cut the government down to size.
In 2006, the shortfall was $646 million. It spiked at $821 million last year. Each year the city managed to survive without gutting treasured service. In essence, it is an opening pressure that council erodes using multiple tools as the year progresses. Already, staff and council have identified $330 million in “revenues” to whittle the 2012 amount to $443 million — before budget deliberations even begin.
But the strategy is to use the $774 million figure as a whipping post to keep councillors in line and to justify this broad hunt for savings. And, on this quest, Ford knows he has public support. It’s why he was elected: to stop the gravy train.
Even as critics giggle at Ford’s inability to generate huge savings from more than a few services that could be considered “gravy,” the list of potential cuts grows, creating unease for some and glee for others.
The showdown, landing at city council in late September, promises to be epic.
How far is Ford prepared to go? His maiden speech at council more than a decade ago is instructive. Ford said then he’d be willing to sell off any and everything to keep from raising taxes.
Toronto has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, he said. He rode that rhetoric into a resounding victory last October. Now he has the mandate to reduce the size and scope of government, he says. And only a cowering council stands in his way.
As more departments prepare to announce their KPMG findings next week — the “inventory of opportunities” to cut service — the public gets a chance to weigh in.
Should city hall cut 2,000 subsidized child-care spaces when there are 20,000 on the waiting list? Should it sell or privatize nine of its 10 senior homes? Do we cut the grass less often, plow only after huge snowfalls, plant fewer flowers and depend on volunteers to tend public gardens?
The daily barrage of potential savings — the KPMG consultants insist they are not recommending any, only outlining areas where the city is not required to provide service — has created a buzz across the region.
And that’s exactly what the mayor wants.
Any hard-nosed negotiator knows that in striking a deal, it’s best to throw in indispensable items as bargaining chips. We’ll see how many of the “opportunities” are worth gold. One man’s fluff or waste or gravy is another man’s lifeline. Tipping the balance will be painful.
Adding to the chaos is that the service review is only one of several initiatives designed to cut spending, tame the budget and remake the city.
City manager Joe Pennachetti says the city will also need to extract “efficiencies” from services that are left, and increase user fees.
This week, he offered 17,000 city staff a chance to leave with a buyout package. If it doesn’t attract at least one-fifth of them, look for layoffs.
The Ford strategy, blitzing from all sides, is politically brilliant. With so many areas identified for cuts, he’s bound to secure a bounty.
By raising the spectre of layoffs for police and firefighters, the message sent is that nothing is sacred. The mayoral candidate who promised to add 100 cops to the workforce isn’t about to lay off police officers. But the threat allows him to jettison those he wants out.
Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong is on Team Ford. But even he realizes the conundrum councillors face when they begin considering cuts on Monday, committee by committee.
They don’t have a specific fiscal target because the other initiatives are still underway. So they won’t know how much needs to be cut to satisfy budget demands.
“This is a more organic process and less predictable,” Minnan-Wong says. “The flaw in the process is we’re being asked to make decisions in isolation. It’s hard to say (what cuts to make) in the context of everything else.”
You can expect that, mostly, the committees will reject KPMG’s suggestions, leaving the tough cuts to come from budget committee.
This, then, sets up the mother of all budget debates in the fall. Success or failure rests with how well Ford manages the non-aligned council members, plus the centre-right team members who are with him only because they want to share power.
A city vote this week illustrates. Queen’s Park offered to pay for two public health nurses. Ford balked, claiming the province has a habit of giving the city new staff and stopping payment in future years. Using slick political manoeuvring, Ford sidelined the issue, whipped followers in line and, today, the offer stands rejected.
Councillor John Filion sees this as a nasty, controlling side of the mayor. Others say it was Ford seizing the agenda.
“By the time they leave here, you won’t recognize the place,” Filion says.
“There’s a new paradigm now,” says Councillor Peter Milczyn, who’s bought into Ford’s austerity approach. “We have to consider completely the fiscal implication of every decision. A culture change needed to occur at city hall, and now it can be seen among the staff and among council.”
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Source: The Star
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