The economy will be the word on everyone's lips when the National Conservative Caucus meets this week in Ottawa for its annual pre-session pulse-taking, but trade, crime and at least one touchstone conservative issue will also be on the table, say insiders. "Conservative MPs and Senators will meet to discuss ways to create jobs and economic growth, make our streets and communities safer and support Canadian families," said caucus chair Guy Lauzon (Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Ont.) in a statement to media.
Caucus meetings are taking place Sept. 7 and 8 on Parliament Hill.
Canada's economy added only 7,100 jobs in July, after doing well from April to June, and in May real GDP dropped by 0.3 per cent, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
"During the campaign, the Prime Minister's basic message was that the government has been successful in ensuring that Canada' economy remains strong through one of the world's worst global turndowns," said Fleishman-Hillard senior vice-president John Capobianco, a former Conservative candidate in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont., and president of the Public Affairs Association of Canada. "I think that's absolutely going to be his key focus."
Returning to the House this fall with a majority government, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) will be able to set the Parliamentary agenda to a degree he hasn't been able to in the past.
"Right now the government has the luxury of really focusing on possibly the most important issues instead of focusing on a number of issues," explained Jim Armour, vice-president of public affairs for Summa Strategies.
Mr. Armour said he expects the government will focus on the economy, as well as its strategic operating review of government spending, eliminating the long-gun registry and re-introducing its justice legislation.
The government has committed to passing an omnibus package of its justice bills within the first 100 sitting days of Parliament. At caucus, members may discuss the process of expediting that legislation and other bills through the committee stage, noted Mr. Armour.
Many policy initiatives introduced in Budget 2011 will also be "renewed or refreshed" in this week's caucus, said Mr. Capobianco.
This includes the strategic operating review, which aims to cut government operational spending, currently about $80-billion a year, by five to 10 per cent, as well as investments in science and technology and job creation.
It's unlikely that the party would debate its broad strategy on the economy in a full caucus meeting, said Mr. Armour, but members will likely have the chance to discuss the ways Treasury Board and Cabinet are working on the spending review.
Such a singular focus on the economy makes sense for the Conservatives both politically and practically, said Liberal commentator Warren Kinsella.
"I think that all of us have seen that that is considered to be their major strength. Where they get in trouble is when they divert off of that into social issues or what have you. None of those issues are their strength...what they need to do is hold on to the coalition of voters that they've got and they've achieved that with the economy," he said.
At the same time, the Tories need to demonstrate that the party has other competencies beyond economics, said Mr. Kinsella.
"They need to demonstrate that they can do foreign affairs, they can handle relationships with the provinces, that they can communicate well," he said.
At the caucus meeting there will be detailed discussions about forthcoming legislation, as well as strategies for working in the House of Commons, said Mr. Armour. It's a House that will be a little quieter with the death of NDP leader Jack Layton, meaning it will be "pretty smooth sailing" for the Tories for the time being, said Mr. Kinsella.
"There's always some disaster lurking on the horizon, who knows what it might be," added Mr. Kinsella, whether it's a domestic scandal or the worsening international debt crisis.
Mr. Layton's death, and the forthcoming race to replace him as leader has a side benefit for the Tories, as some of the NDP's higher-profile members travel across the country to raise money and support for leadership bids, said Mr. Armour. The same goes for the Liberals who will be keeping an eye on their own 2013 leadership convention.
"When it comes to the NDP and the Liberals some of their stronger performers may not be in the House as often as they would have been if there was a permanent leader," he said.
While this will be a distraction for opposition parties, the Conservatives will be focusing on executing their agenda, said Mr. Capobianco.
"I'm not expecting any huge surprises. I think overall the government's probably leaving the excitement to the opposition caucuses and not their own," said Mr. Armour.
Whether any distractions come from inside caucus remains to be seen. A majority government means that Mr. Harper has lost a stalling tactic when it comes to placating the more socially conservative members of his base, noted Mr. Kinsella.
"It will be interesting to see what they do with social issues like abortion. He's said it's not a priority for him but it's a priority for about 80 per cent of his caucus," he said.
"Now he's got a majority, and he's going to have people saying, 'We've waited long enough, we've listened to you, we have a majority and we want to use it.'"
Though Mr. Harper has lost the excuse of a volatile minority Parliament for not re-opening issues such as abortion, "he's made it pretty clear" what the government's priorities are, Mr. Armour said.
Mr. Capobianco said he didn't think that socially conservative interest groups would have much sway on the government agenda.
"Will there be people in caucus who won't want to hear that? For sure, and their voices will always be heard, but the Prime Minister has been pretty clear on his priorities," he said.
Mr. Kinsella noted that while the government might not introduce controversial social policies directly, a backbench MP might do it, much like Tory MP Candice Hoeppner (Portage-Lisgar, Man.) did with her unsuccessful bill to scrap the long-gun registry.
In Quebec, the Conservatives lost half their seats in the last election, leaving them just five MPs there. Washed out by the Orange Wave were Cabinet ministers including former foreign affairs minister Lawrence Cannon, former intergovernmental affairs minister Josée Verner and former veterans affairs minister Jean-Pierre Blackburn.
But that doesn't mean that the province will have a smaller voice at this week's caucus meeting, said Mr. Capobianco.
"That will always be a key focus for this Prime Minister. He's always had a special interest in Quebec. Even though we've lost some seats in Quebec, four of the five MPs that were elected are in Cabinet," he said.
Cabinet ministers Christian Paradis (Mégantic-L'Érable), Denis Lebel (Roberval-Lac Saint Jean), Maxime Bernier (Beauce) and Stephen Blaney (Lévis-Bellechasse) are all from the province.
The Prime Minister caught a lucky break in Quebec with the recent implosion of the provincial Parti Québécois, said Mr. Kinsella.
"He's got some time now to figure out a Quebec strategy. If he was looking, as he was, at a Parti Québécois provincial government and a possible referendum, his lack of strength in Quebec could have been disastrous for the country," he said.
In caucus this week, the leadership will get feedback from MPs who have spent the summer in their constituencies, interacting with the grassroots, noted Mr. Armour.
Mr. Lauzon told The Hill Times recently: "We're big on coming from the grassroots, listening to the constituents, so if somebody in some remote part of Canada has a concern, it has to get heard."
In the weeks leading up to the meeting Conservative MPs have been "conspicuously silent" said Mr. Kinsella.
"But Harper's got too many kooks in his caucus, so something will bust out," he added.
Stemming from the Conservatives' focus on the economy, Mr. Capobianco said that trade will likely be a priority for the government in this next legislative session.
Mr. Harper toured four South American countries this summer, making progress on or ushering in trade deals with each one.
"All of the stuff that comes out of that, all of the issues that come out of those trade discussions, are going to be something that consume this government as well, in a very positive way," said Mr. Capobianco.
The new trade agreements will likely cause sparks to fly between the Conservatives and the NDP, as they did when they debated the Canada-Columbia trade agreement in the House in the last Parliament. This and other issues will test the pledge from MPs of all parties to make the tone in Parliament more civil.
Mr. Armour said that beyond discussions about civility and House strategy in caucus this week, a majority government situation alone will change Parliament's tenor.
"For the first time since this government's been in power it now knows it's not going to be facing an election for the next four years. That alone will probably have an effect on the overall tone of the House and probably the overall tone of the caucus meeting," he said.
Mr. Capobianco said he's already noticed a shift in Conservative rhetoric.
"It goes back to the day of the election when Stephen Harper won the majority government. His election night speech was very magnanimous, it was very much inclusive, it was all about the fact that he's taking this mandate from Canadians seriously," he said.
Mr. Kinsella said that while members may pay lip service to civility, "a bit of passion and emotion in Question Period is a good thing."
Origin
Source: Hill Times
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