There could be a day when both the Keystone XL and the Northern Gateway pipelines are built, but not before some political careers are badly bruised, if not killed.
In the U.S., the Keystone debate will revolve around jobs, but an emboldened environmental movement is ready for the next twist over the proposed TransCanada pipeline route in Nebraska.
In Canada, the Enbridge debate will pit a very determined Conservative majority government against an equally energized environmental movement.
But the Canadian debate holds another key player, First Nations communities, which ultimately may seal the pipeline’s fate.
On both sides of the border, there is peril for Stephen Harper.
First, the U.S. debate.
It was four years ago that the Harper government clumsily injected itself in the U.S. presidential campaign with the leak of a Canadian memo suggesting Barack Obama’s threat to renegotiate NAFTA was all about domestic politics, not serious policy.
That provided manna from heaven, for his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, and Harper must be careful not provide ammunition for Obama opponents again, this time Republicans.
Republicans pushed a deadline for a Keystone decision by Obama — through language in unrelated legislation — into the middle of the primary season for maximum effect.
GOP leaders lined up at the microphones Wednesday to denounce Obama for sending jobs to China, citing Harper’s stated policy of looking to Asian markets for Canadian oil following the Keystone delay.
Obama is trying to kick the issue to the curb as quickly as possible.
The White House released an analysis Wednesday night saying Keystone would have a negligible effect on the U.S. economy, providing 5,000 to 6,000 temporary jobs which would have a life of no more than two years — not the 100,000 jobs proponents had been claiming.
And it said the final determination of the Keystone permit will have no impact on Canada-U.S. relations, pointing to Harper’s own characterization of the relationship as a “shining example to the world.”
Harper, his ministers and caucus, have to keep their heads down and focus on the Prime Minister’s trip to China next month.
Any grumbling that Obama’s decision was political in nature will be gleefully scooped up by the Republicans (not to mention the Harper hypocrisy, ignoring as he does, his own political motivation in denying a foreign potash takeover in Saskatchewan.)
And they must resist any suggestion that the China push is retaliatory, lest they again play into the hands of eager Republicans.
“He (Obama) is going to get beat up the whole year on this,” said Illinois Republican John Shimkus, chair of a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
The Conservatives have to let the U.S. theatre play out, so as to not again get dragged somewhere they will regret.
Then there is the challenge on the home front.
It is one thing to pillory “radical” environmental groups and large-pocketed U.S. celebrities in using the bully pulpit to frame the Gateway project as a matter of national economic interest.
But it was worth noting that on the same day Obama reaffirmed his Keystone decision, British Columbia’s Gitxsan First Nation disavowed its deal with Enbridge that would have paid the band a reported $7 million under an equity-sharing agreement.
The Gitxsan now join at least 60 other aboriginal groups across British Columbia that have vowed to fight the proposed $5.5 billion project, arguing the pipeline blights their traditional territories and the threat of an oil spill poses a threat to their lifestyle.
Hopeful native leaders arrive in the capital Monday in advance of a summit with Harper.
The talks have already taken a different shape with the shame of Attawapiskat dominating coverage in December.
Harper must also now deal with fears that he is trying to ram a pipeline through native territory on the West Coast.
Original Article
Source: Star
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