Wash it all down with a $16 glass of orange juice — courtesy of the international cooperation minister — and you’ve got the makings of a Conservative cabinet that seems ripe for a shuffle.
More than a year after it was created, the cabinet that steered Stephen Harper’s government through the first year of its majority term looks due for a shakeup as it faces a renewed and popular NDP opposition.
“I think there’s a time for some freshening up. I think there’s some irritations in there, I think there is some cleaning up to do,” one Conservative strategist said in an interview.
That sets the stage for a cabinet shuffle this summer, likely soon after the Commons rises near the end of the month. Harper has in the past preferred to fine-tune his cabinet rather than bring in widespread changes, but the coming shakeup could break with tradition.
“There’s a lot of moving parts . . . I think this will be a bigger shuffle,” the strategist told the Star.
The ministers expected to move include:
• International Cooperation Minister Bev Oda tops the list after serving up a string of embarrassments. Her most recent was opting to stay at London’s swanky Savoy hotel at $665 a night, rather than the $287-a-night room that had been booked. During that same trip, she dinged taxpayers for a $16 glass of orange juice. After initially defending the expenses, she later called them “unacceptable” and repaid some of the costs. Now there are suggestions of even more skeletons rattling around her spending closet. Since that controversy broke, several of her other travel claims have been amended but the government isn’t saying why.
• Defence Minister Peter MacKay has held the post since 2007 so, by that measure alone, he could be seen as due for a change. But the government will also hope that a fresh face atop defence will dampen the enduring controversy over Canada’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets, a program plagued by delays and cost overruns. The auditor general slapped the Conservatives for keeping Parliament in the dark about the problems. While the blame stretches across government, MacKay is one of the point men on the file and could take the fall.
• Public Safety Minister Vic Toews single-handedly sank his government’s electronic surveillance bill with his ill-advised charge that opponents of the legislation “stand with child pornographers.” The over-the-top accusation put the proposed law on ice and, despite the backing of police forces, it won’t be back until the fall session.
Harper’s push to streamline environmental approvals for energy projects could prompt a shakeup on two fronts — environment and aboriginal affairs. The prime minister will need strong ministers able to pitch Ottawa’s environmental agenda while also defusing aboriginal opposition to the proposal to run a pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast.
• John Duncan, the minister of aboriginal affairs and northern development, has had health problems and his performance on the file has been questioned, leading to speculation he will be shuffled out.
• The environment minister has been a revolving door. Peter Kent, who took over in January 2011, is the fifth since 2006, including two stints by John Baird. According to the Tory insider, the government may change ministers to put a “gentler” face on environment.
• Industry Minister Christian Paradis has been in the crosshairs of three separate ethics investigations. This is certain to blunt his rise in cabinet but Harper may be reluctant to actually demote his senior Quebec minister.
• Niagara-area MP Rob Nicholson has been justice minister since 2007, a length of service that could put him in the mix for a new posting.
The shuffle also gives Harper a chance to promote parliamentary secretaries. Kellie Leitch (Simcoe-Grey), an orthopedic surgeon, and Chris Alexander (Ajax-Pickering), who served as Canada’s ambassador to Afghanistan, are two names mentioned. Greg Rickford (Kenora), a bilingual lawyer who also holds an MBA, could also be in line for a promotion after backstopping Duncan as parliamentary secretary for aboriginal affairs.
Pollster Frank Graves sees nothing in the polls that would warrant a shakeup. If it happens, he said the motivation will be a desire to stifle the controversies — and with it the distraction of bad news headlines.
“If they’re going to change their cabinet, it’s really an investment in trying to change the tone with the media,” said Graves, of EKOS Research Associates.
“I don’t think there are any exigencies for them from a voter perspective, from their constituents’ perspective, to make any changes right now,” he said in an interview.
He notes that few cabinet ministers in the Harper government have the profile or public ambitions that marked ministers in previous governments.
“Does the prime minister really see any need to improve the horsepower in his cabinet? I doubt it,” Graves said, calling Harper the “Swiss army knife” of government.
“He does everything. The role of the cabinet is largely to not screw things up and be spokespersons,” Graves said.
The changes, if they come, will happen with an eye to what is happening across the aisle in the House of Commons. After winning a record 103 seats in the May 2011 election, the New Democrats have stayed strong in the polls.
“You always have to pay attention to your opponents. But when you are doing these things you have to retool from your own strengths and your own direction,” the strategist said.
In addition to remaking the public face of the government, potential changes also loom behind the scenes, starting with Harper’s own chief of staff. Nigel Wright’s term is up in September and the question is whether he sticks around or returns to Bay Street. While he works entirely in the shadows, few other people are so important to the management of the government and the implementation of its agenda.
“He’s done a very good job but you can only do that job for so long because it is so all-consuming,” the strategist said.
As well, it’s expected the Canadian Forces will get a new top general this summer when Gen. Walt. Natynczyk leaves the post after a four-year term.
Source: the star
Author: Bruce Campion-Smith
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