“The existing ridings are going to be changed dramatically,” said Innovative Research Group pollster Greg Lyle. “To fully understand it, you really need to have a poll by poll overlay which I don’t have but there’s an obvious pattern. The Tories win, right? Not perfectly, but mostly. … The new ridings are going in areas of their strength.”
Under Bill C-20, the Democratic Representation Act, the House of Commons will have 30 new seats in the next Parliament, increasing the House from 308 to 338.
British Columbia, whose boundary commission released its proposed new boundaries on July 3, will get six new seats to the province’s current 36 seats. Alberta, which currently has 28 seats, will also receive six new seats. Ontario, with 106 seats, will receive an extra 15 seats, and Quebec, with 75 seats, will get an additional three seats.
If the readjustments are accepted, the six new seats for British Columbia will be created in Vancouver and its suburbs, where population growth has been the highest. The proposed new ridings are: Fort Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui, Richmond West, Surrey Centre, Vancouver Granville, and West Surrey-Whalley.
“Unless there’s a very odd set of circumstances, all those seats will likely end up being Tory,” Mr. Lyle told The Hill Times last week, noting the Conservatives also have an advantage in the new Vancouver Granville seat, as they have the “absolute best polls” in that area.
Wai Young won Vancouver South for the Conservatives in the last election campaign, ousting former Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh.
Mr. Lyle said the readjustment to create the Vancouver Granville riding could hurt the Conservatives in other surrounding ridings.
“They have Vancouver South now but I’m not sure how much of Vancouver South goes into the new seat. That’s where it would really be helpful to look poll by poll. It’s shaking things up all over the place,” Mr. Lyle said.
Because of the additional seats, almost all of British Columbia’s remaining ridings have been readjusted. For example, International Trade Minister Ed Fast’s riding of Abbotsford will now take in the Sumas area and will be renamed Abbotsford-Sumas and Conservative MP Mark Warawa’s riding of Langley, will also take in a new area and be called Langley-Cloverdale. In other ridings, portions of it will be taken away. For example, in Conservative MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s riding of Delta-Richmond East, Delta will become a new riding on its own, as will Richmond East. For others, boundaries have changed but names will stay the same, for example NDP MP Nathan Cullen’s riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley and Green Party leader Elizabeth May’s Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Before the new riding boundaries were proposed, Ms. May said she was worried that there could be gerrymandering involved in her specific riding. Ms. May was referring to a newsletter by the Saanich-Gulf Islands Conservative riding association which spoke about how the seat redistribution could help them take back the seat.
“Southern Vancouver Island will receive at least one additional seat as a result of redistribution. We presently have four seats, with a population of about 500,000 people. In order to create the extra seat, Saanich-Gulf Islands can expect to shrink by losing the area South of MacKenzie Avenue, by losing the Gulf Islands, by losing Gordon Head, or by some combination of these three areas,” the newsletter said. “If you removed all three of these areas, and only had the area from Sidney to Broadmead, we would have won the last election. If you eliminate one of two of these areas, we would have had a neck and neck result. Any likely redistribution scenario will either make the results of the last election closer or make us the winners.”
Ms. May raised the issue last fall during Question Period, to which Government House Leader Peter Van Loan (York-Simcoe, Ont.) replied: “The statute is quite clear. It sets out a process for redistribution that is run on a non-partisan basis by independent commissions. Those will be underway in the appropriate time. Under our legislation we will ensure that there is a formula in place that ensures people of Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C., in fact, all of Canada, will have fair representation that has long been denied to them.”
Ms. May told The Hill Times last week that she was “relieved” when the B.C. boundary commission released its proposal and she saw that it was a fair redistribution. She said the boundary changes reduces the population in her riding from more than 100,000 people to about 80,000 people and the changes made sense.
“It did not have any indication of political manipulation of the riding boundaries. It’s a fair proposal. It still has to go through hearings but I’ll certainly be supporting what the electoral commission has put forward,” she said. “The areas that they’re taking away were areas that were pretty strong for me, but it wasn’t as though there were a gerrymandering hand at work. It reduces the population of Saanich Gulf Islands to make it more typical of what you see across the country for population, and that’s reasonable.”
Mr. Lyle said the changes to the ridings on Vancouver Island “is a bit of a mess” as both the NDP and the Conservatives will be in a tough battle to hold the seats they hold there.
“The north end’s been fairly Conservative and the south end’s been pretty NDP so, it becomes a real interesting battleground seat,” Mr. Lyle said. “So, my money would be that overall, the changes on the island probably solidify the NDP’s position, but the big gains are coming for the Tories, because the brand new seats are being dropped into their turf.”
The Conservatives currently hold 21 of 36 seats in British Columbia. The NDP hold 12, and the Liberals hold two, while Ms. May holds the last one.
Mr. Lyle said barring a major change in Liberal fortunes in the next election, British Columbia will remain competitive between the Conservatives and NDP.
“Liberals are not in a race to gain anything today,” Mr. Lyle said, who lives in Roberts Creek, B.C. “That said, the NDP have picked a leader from Quebec and that’s always a vulnerability in B.C. and the Tories have been making some announcements that have been alienating people here, particularly the Coast Guard announcement, so depending on how the Liberal leadership plays out, I wouldn’t write off B.C. for the Liberals. Hope springs eternal, but there would be no reason today for the Liberals to be particularly hopeful.”
There will be public hearings from Sept. 10 to Oct. 18 across British Columbia for all those interested in giving their input on the new boundaries.
Alberta’s boundary commission released its proposal on July 5. There will be six new seats for the province, two each in the Calgary and Edmonton areas, and one in Southern Alberta and one in Northern Alberta. The proposed new ridings are: Bow River, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Spy Hill, Edmonton Griesbach, Grande Prairie and Sturgeon River. Public hearings will take place in the province from Sept. 10 to 25.
Meanwhile, the New Brunswick and Newfoundland boundary commissions have released their proposed riding adjustments. New Brunswick has 10 seats and Newfoundland and Labrador have seven seats.
While the two provinces do not have additional seats, population changes could warrant boundary redistribution. In New Brunswick, there will be four name changes: Beauséjour to Beauséjour-Dieppe; Fundy Royal to Fundy-Quispamsis; Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe to Moncton Riverview; and Tobique-Mactaquac to Tobique-Saint John River Valley. Public hearings will be held in New Brunswick from Sept. 10 to 27.
In Newfoundland, there are also four proposed name changes: from Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor to Bay d’Espoir-Central-Notre Dame; Random-Burin-St. George’s to Bonavista-Burin-Trinity; Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte to Long Range Mountains; and St. John’s East to St. John’s North.
Summa Strategies vice-president Tim Powers, a Conservative pundit and native Newfoundlander, told The Hill Times last week that he didn’t think the name changes and boundary adjustments would make a significant difference to any political party on the Rock.
“Other than Labrador where Peter Penashue won by under 300 votes, the rest of the races weren’t really that tight so minor boundary tinkering shouldn’t impact incumbents,” Mr. Powers said.
“Historical voting patterns are less prevalent in Newfoundland now in certain districts. The St. John’s seats are an example of this. Once a Tory fiefdom, they are becoming an NDP base camp. St. John’s hasn’t necessarily gone all champagne socialist but the NDP has attracted some capable candidates with good organizations who have coloured the town orange for now,” said Mr. Powers.
Public hearings for Newfoundland’s name changes started on July 3 and will continue to July 25.
The other provincial boundary commissions have until September 2012 to submit their proposals. The public has the right to give input until November, and a final report must be filed with the House Speaker no later than Dec. 21, 2012, according to Bill C-20. A provincial boundary commission can have an extension of up to two months, if requested.
Once the reports are tabled in the House, Members of Parliament will be able to give their input and must file “objections” no later than March 2013.
The Procedure and House Affairs Committee will then study the reports and any objections. The House’s report will then be delivered to the respective commissions by early May 2013. The commissions will then have 30 days to make any changes. A final representation order is expected by September 2013 for the boundaries to be in effect for the October 2015 election.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: Bea Vongdouangchanh
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