If the U.S. government gives the pipeline the green light, he’s off to the races. If it doesn’t, his plans will stall — and his party will suffer the consequences.
That’s why Ottawa is likely not very happy with developments in Washington in the past two weeks. First, Secretary of State John Kerry gave Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird a noncomittal assurance that the pipeline will receive a “fair, transparent, and accountable” federal review, and that a decision will be made “in the near term”. That term has now apparently been pushed back from March to June of this year.
Then this week President Obama, in his State of the Union address, came out swinging on climate change: “For the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change … Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend … We can choose to believe that superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science — and act before it’s too late.”
Not once did Obama mention Keystone by name. He furthermore stated that if Congress did not pass his proposed reforms (which could include new emissions controls and an Energy Security Trust), he would take action on his own:
“But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will. I will direct my cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.”
Why Obama’s emphasis on climate change? In a word, legacy. Apart from two election victories that breached America’s racial divide and the assassination of Osama bin Laden, Obama leaves thin gruel for the history books. Economically, he is still staring into the abyss of the fiscal cliff; militarily, he is winding down wars, not winning them; on health care, immigration and gun control his plans face an uncertain future.
So going where Al Gore never had the chance to tread may be the president’s only option. And though he’s facing pressure from both sides in the debate, the environmentalists seem to be winning the publicity war. For every union leader that privately begs the president to approve the pipeline, another activist publicly chains him or herself to the White House fence. Can 20,000 construction jobs trump celebrity greenie Darryl Hannah’s latest arrest? The Democratic Party relies on both constituencies – but if Obama thinks the American economy can recover without Keystone’s help, then the environmental lobby may prevail.
That should worry the federal Conservatives. If Obama refuses to approve Keystone XL, he will not only blow an immediate hole in the government’s economic strategy, he will embolden opponents of the Northern Gateway. That pipeline is arguably more important than Keystone, because it would introduce competition from Asia for Canadian crude and drive up the price of our oil exports to the United States.
What is Harper’s back-up plan if the pipelines fail? It’s not clear that he has one. The fact the prime minister was willing to risk opposition wrath and political capital on last year’s omnibus budget bill, which will accelerate project approvals, shows how important resource development is not only to the economy, but to the party.
Resource extraction, specifically oil and gas, is concentrated in the West. The more the western economy grows, the more the region’s demographic and political clout does as well. When you factor in the Conservatives’ spending record, changes to seat distribution, and EI and immigration reforms, it’s clear their long-term agenda isn’t smaller government: it’s western government.
For that to happen, Harper, Transcanada and their American allies must convince Obama that he’ll leave a greater legacy by creating jobs than combating climate change. Otherwise, the Conservatives’ plans will turn from pipelines into pipe dreams.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics.ca
Author: Tasha Kheiriddin
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