Angela Merkel may be the only German politician with true global recognition, but Sunday's vote appears set to project into the limelight a less familiar political duo, whose views and temperaments would shake up Europe and wrongfoot David Cameron.Once the votes from the election are counted on Sunday night, Merkel may well find herself relying on the centre-left SPD for a governing majority. And the unwritten rules of German coalitions mean that junior coalition partner bigwigs get heavyweight roles – either foreign minister or finance minister.
Step forward Sigmar Gabriel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, two SPD stalwarts with pro-European credentials who could jeopardise Cameron's strategy of renegotiating Britain's relationship with the EU ahead of a referendum. One party insider insists that the Social Democrats would "actively try to block attempts to return EU powers to national governments", as Cameron has proposed. A source at the foreign ministry said: "Any attempt to cherry-pick EU policies to keep or discard would cause friction with the traditional SPD line."
While Merkel has surprised many with her tolerance towards Cameron's "review of competences" between EU and UK, a German government with Social Democrat involvement is likely to take a dim view of "Europe a la carte", especially in regard to social regulations such as the working time directive.
Steinmeier in particular is said to be a committed European with close links to the French Socialists. The Social Democrats' failed candidate in the 2009 election, and foreign minister during the last grand coalition, he will remember German frustration with British intransigence on Europe during the government of Gerhard Schröder, for whom he was chief of staff.
Pressed on the subject, one of his advisers insists that he "has great interest in keeping Britain in the EU", but it is worth remembering comments he made as recently as December 2011: "I fear the decisive step for Great Britain's exit has already been made. If the regular meetings take the form of a Europe of 26 without Britain, then a process of alienation will become inevitable and irreversible."
Also in 2011, Steinmeier spoke out in favour of the creation of a European finance minister: "We have to think bravely to the future. We don't just need better coordination, we also need institutions that can get a grip on this crisis." Recent reports suggest Merkel has lost her appetite for more fiscal integration in Europe – with Steinmeier as finance minister, she may be minded to find it again.
Temperamentally, Steinmeier could hardly be further apart from Gabriel, his main opponent in a post-election race for the ministerial rank. Steinmeier, who donated a kidney to his ill wife in 2010, has a reputation as a bureaucrat who rarely loses his temper but also struggles to raise the spirit of the party faithful. During his first stint as foreign minister, he clashed with Merkel over the arrangements for Barack Obama's first Berlin visit and openly criticised her for an unscheduled meeting with the Dalai Lama, but broadly he is seen as sharing her "consensual" approach to politics.
Gabriel, on the other had, is what Germans call a Bauchmensch, someone who acts on gut instinct. Aged 56 and a former teacher who was once nicknamed "Siggi Pop" in his party, he is a impassioned orator and seasoned campaigner, who worked his way through the SPD's party ranks and was responsible for the leftward lurch in his party's current manifesto. He has openly called for the party to distance itself from its "neoliberal phase" under Schröder. "Instead of changing the political centre, the centre changed us," he said at the recent party conference. The current issue of political monthly Cicero claims he has a long-term plan of breaking the taboo of a majority coalition with the SPD, the Greens and the leftist Die Linke.
It is no surprise that the two men are said to share a mutual loathing of one another. "I haven't joined his fan club yet," Steinmeier said after Gabriel suggested the reintroduction of a wealth tax in 2009, and they are said to have clashed after Gabriel tried to convince colleagues to vote against Merkel's fiscal pact via text message.
Yet it is Gabriel who currently has edged ahead of his rival in most commentators' assessments. Christoph Schwennicke, editor of political monthly Cicero and an SPD expert, believes Gabriel can lay claim to the vice chancellory unless his party gets below 24%. Since the two parties would take turns in picking their ministerial posts, Steinmeier would only be left with a minor role and may decide to stay out of politics altogether.
Gabriel has little experience in the field of finance or foreign policy, but he has spent the last few years expanding his network of global contacts, and is one of the architects of the "Progressive Alliance" of European centre-left parties, a rival organisation to the Socialist International.
According to Matthias Koch of the Hannoversche Allgemeine newspaper, Gabriel believes that "none of the central questions for the citizen of today can be answered within the frame of the nation state".
Either way, observers in No 10 are advised to keep their eye on the SPD side of a grand coalition. The last time the Social Democrats entered a grand coalition, they emerged at the other end with their worst electoral result since the foundation of the federal republic, mainly because the party was seen as getting on with Merkel all too well. In order to avoid a rerun, many want a less cosy kind of coalition arrangement, and will welcome the first good scrap with Merkel's CDU. A showdown with Britain may just be what they are looking for.
Original Article
Source: theguardian.com
Author: Philip Oltermann
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