A former senior adviser to the Conservative government familiar with the trade agenda said the deal is down to “endgame issues,” the most challenging and politically sensitive ones.
“The price to join TPP will require concessions on Canada’s part in these areas,” said the former official on the condition of anonymity.
“I think if you read between the lines of what the Prime Minister has said recently on this, that some of these things will be out of Canada’s control but Canada absolutely needs to be part of this trade pact … I believe the government is now signaling that it is willing to make those concessions, because they’re saying very clearly that Canada needs to be in TPP.”
Negotiations to reach a Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement have been in the works for years. It’s a massive free trade deal with 11 other countries—Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, the U.S. and Vietnam—whose combined market is just under 800 million people and has a $28.5-trillion GDP.
TPP talks have shifted into high gear this summer as Canada’s federal parties shift into campaign mode for the Oct. 19 election. At the end of June, the U.S. Congress passed a bill to give President Barack Obama authority to fast-track approval of the final TPP agreement. A meeting of chief negotiators is set for July 24 to 27 in Maui, Hawaii, followed by a ministerial meeting July 28 to 31, which International Trade Minister Ed Fast (Abbotsford, B.C.) has confirmed he’ll attend.
As negotiations reach the final stages, pressure has been mounting on Canada on the supply management front, with the U.S., Australia and New Zealand, in particular, pushing for concessions to Canada’s dairy and poultry supply management protections.
Canada has five supply-managed sectors: dairy, eggs, chicken, turkey and hatching eggs.
Supply management controls the price of certain products in the Canadian market, regulating and restricting the domestic supply.
Yves Leduc, director of international trade at Dairy Farmers of Canada, said supply management creates stability in the Canadian dairy market and allows for the supply of milk to be balanced by demand.
“The system allows for the producers to get a price that is reflective of what it costs to produce milk in this country,” he said. “We contribute $19-billion plus to the GDP of Canada, we sustain over 218,000 jobs in this country.”
There were a total of 11,962 dairy producing farms in 2014; of those, roughly 5,800 were in Quebec and 3,900 were in Ontario, according to the Canadian Dairy Information Centre.
Mr. Leduc said with pressure from countries like the U.S. to make concessions, there’s “obviously” a concern but “the Canadian government remains committed to defending and promoting and maintaining supply management in Canada.”
The concession made to cheese quotas under the Canada-Europe trade deal negotiated in 2013 “will have a very, very strong negative impact,” said Mr. Leduc. The DFC opposes any additional access, he said.
In an editorial board interview with Bloomberg News July 9, Mr. Fast called the TPP a “once-in-a-generation” agreement and said officials are trying to reach a “balance” in negotiations, but he’s “confident that at the end of the day Canada will be part of the TPP.”
“We have some market access issues left to resolve,” Mr. Fast told the business news service. “We have said to the supply-managed industry we will continue to promote and defend their interests whenever we negotiate trade agreements, but I think they also understand we have to find a balance that allows the rest of the economy to participate within the global marketplace.”
The former government official told The Hill Times “there’s a good chance” a final TPP agreement could be reached at the ministerial meeting later this month. Negotiations are more sensitive because of the timing before an election but the “sales job has already begun” to communicate the deal to Canadians and show that the good outweighs the bad.
The government will likely make concessions on all supply management sectors, the source said, but doing so won’t come without “certain risks.” It will provoke reaction from other political parties and raise the ire of affected farmers, the majority of whom are located in the major battleground provinces of Quebec and Ontario, said the source, but it’s unlikely there would be “major election swinging” fallout.
Canada already has free trade agreements with a number of TPP countries and is negotiating separate deals with others, including Japan. But it’s nonetheless important for Canada to be at the TPP negotiating table, said the source, calling it a “a coup to be at the table writing the rules.”
In April, Angus Reid polled 1,475 respondents on Canada’s trade ties and found 48 per cent felt they didn’t know enough about the TPP to form an opinion, while 11 per cent were opposed and 41 per cent approved.
Shachi Kurl, senior vice president of Angus Reid, said the “overwhelming takeaway” is that most Canadians don’t know about the TPP deal. Lack of transparency has contributed to low awareness levels among Canadians, she said, but that could change in the three months leading up to the election.
Former Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay, now with the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said during her time as an MP she became frustrated by the fact that while there’s widespread agreement among experts that supply management needs to go, politicians are too afraid to tackle the “tiny but very powerful” lobbies defending it.
But taking on supply management isn’t as politically risky as it used to be, and as most imagine it still is, she said.
“Our conclusion was after 2011, if the government had done something before the 2011 election they still would have had a majority,” she said.
“Even in heavily dairy ridings there are at least two, three, four, sometimes five times as many non-supply managed farmers in those ridings—we’re talking beef, pork … soybeans and lentils. All of those farmers in those ridings want the TPP, [and] they don’t like supply management.”
NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau (Berthier-Maskinongé, Que.), deputy agriculture critic, said the government has been sending “mixed signals” as to whether it would make concessions.
Ms. Brosseau said she isn’t convinced by the government’s reassurances that it supports supply-managed sectors.
A number of dairy and poultry farmers live in her riding and she said farmers in Quebec have begun actively campaigning against the TPP, with signs up along the highway in support of supply management and local events being held. Supply management is something Canadian farmers need, she said, in part for stability, and she’s heard from constituents “worried” over TPP talks.
“Supply management is something that has worked and something that we should be proud of,” she said. “I think this is going to be a big election issue. …People are really afraid that because things are moving so fast that something might come up and be signed ahead of time.”
The NDP is waiting to see the full, final text of the TPP before taking a final position, said Ms. Brosseau, but supply management should be protected.
The Liberal Party has said it’s strongly in favour of the TPP agreement, but has argued supply management must be protected.
“It would be really devastating for Canada to be left on the outside, and it’s the job of the government to negotiate a deal that benefits all sectors of the economy, absolutely including the supply-managed industries,” Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland told The Globe and Mail late last month.
Conservative MP Larry Miller (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Ont.), a former dairy farmer who represents a number of farmers, said people in his riding are “worried about supply management, but at the same time, all of them have said our record on getting free trade deals with other countries and protecting supply management is very solid.”
Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com/
Author: Laura Ryckewaert
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