The marines have secured a beachhead that could allow Ukraine to reclaim more of the Kherson region that lies between Ukrainian territory and Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, a fillip for a counter-offensive showing few gains elsewhere, but only if they can find a way to bring armoured vehicles and heavy weapons across the wide river separating the two militaries.
When the Ukrainian marines landed on the east bank in mid-October, Russian infantry counterattacked, backed by artillery and drones.
“The coastline and floodplains are littered with the bodies of Ukrainian fighters,” said Volodymyr Saldo, the Putin-appointed governor of occupied Kherson. The Russian president called the attack “a mistake”, declaring at a press conference that the Ukrainians “have started the long-announced and expected next counteroffensive now in the Kherson direction – there is no result yet”.
This week, however, Rybar, one of the Russian military bloggers whose information is regarded as more credible than official propaganda, said fresh teams of marines had crossed the river by night to replenish the Ukrainian contingent. A security source described the Ukrainian position as “stable”.
“Along this thousand-kilometre frontline, they are trying to prevent the Russians concentrating their force,” said Ben Barry, a former British army officer and expert in land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “So they are attacking at different places at different times.” If they sense weakness in the Russian defences, he added, the Ukrainian forces on the east bank might seek to push forward, seizing territory as they did in Kharkiv last year.
The southern Kherson region, which straddles the Dnipro River, was the scene of early gains by Russia in the first days of the February 2022 invasion before a retreat that autumn to the east bank of the river during a Ukrainian fightback that liberated Kherson city on the west bank. The bridge over the river was left in ruins.
Since then, Kherson city has endured unceasing Russian missiles, shells and bombing raids that kill and wound civilians almost every day.
The Ukrainian marines who have reached the east bank – between a few dozen and a few hundred – took up a position near the remains of the bridge and captured at least part of Krynky. The rustic village dotted with fruit trees was made famous by the Ukrainian humourist Ostap Vishnia, whose museum stands among the squat dwellings from which the Ukrainian troops are seeking to secure the village after driving out Russian forces.
Krynky, like the rest of the region, flooded when the Kakhova dam on the Dnipro was destroyed in June. The Russians, who controlled the dam at the time, are believed to have sabotaged it, though the Kremlin denies this.
The area’s marshy riverside terrain would be difficult for heavy weapons to traverse – if they even got that far. One western military analyst said: “The problem has always been: it’s a big river. You can get infantry over but you need to get armour over there. Ukraine does not have air superiority. If they try to get armour over they will get hit.” Another Russian military blogger has predicted the Ukrainians would shortly attempt this using pontoons. Amphibious vehicles might also try to cross.
Beyond Krynky lie the Russian defences. Trenches and minefields 500 metres deep protect the territory Putin has seized since he ordered a full-scale invasion in February 2022. The defences are thought to be less formidable in Kherson region than in Zaporizhzhia, where Ukraine is attacking from the north, but remain daunting.
There are signs that the Ukrainian incursion on the east bank has alarmed Moscow. Russian military bloggers wrote that the regional commander, Col Gen Oleg Makarevich, had been replaced. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US research body that monitors the Ukraine conflict, said: “Makarevich’s reported dismissal indicates that the Kremlin or the Russian military command may be sufficiently worried and sceptical of his ability to repel recent larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations.”
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