Stephen Harper’s cabinet freeze not set in stone

Conservative cabinet ministers and senior staffers were caught as off-guard as everyone else when Stephen Harper announced the mini-shuffle that saw Julian Fantino replace Bev Oda as minister for Canada’s foreign aid agency.

One staffer refused to believe the news until he read the official press release. It’s not the first time the Prime Minister has bushwhacked his own team – think the Quebec nation motion and the Davos announcement on old age security reform.

It seems Mr. Harper decided he couldn’t allow two more months of speculation so fevered speculation it has reduced the capital to a state of lassitude.

The Prime Minister’s director of communications, Andrew MacDougall, said there will be no more changes to the ministry this summer. Mr. Harper himself appeared on Calgary’s Dave Rutherford radio show and said there will not be a major cabinet shuffle until the “mid-term” of his mandate.

So that would appear to be that. All the acres of newsprint devoted to the movement of the government chess pieces around the board proved as accurate as CNN’s reporting of the Supreme Court health care decision.

Three dozen ministers can now go back to snoozing at their desks without fear they may wake up at National Revenue; three dozen wannabees can continue to court reporters in the hope that newspapers will tip them for promotion.

Except: Neither Mr. Harper nor Mr. MacDougall were speaking under oath and there are always events, dear boy, events.

For example, what if one senior minister decides he doesn’t fancy the prospect of a demotion but quite likes the idea of filling his boots on Bay Street? Or another long-serving minister applies to move back to his home province for a senior judicial appointment? In either eventuality, Mr. Harper could say his hand was forced.

Both of those hypothetical scenarios are plausible. Speculation that Peter MacKay, the embattled Defence Minister, may decide to leave government to make some real money in the private sector have re-surfaced. Vic Toews, the Public Safety Minister, has long harboured ambitions to join Manitoba’s Court of Appeal, according to people who know him well.

There is also a sense that a number of the class of 2000 and 2004 may start to retire – Government Whip Gordon O’Connor, for example, recently turned 73.

By standing pat, Mr. Harper has given the impression that he’s satisfied with the performances of all his ministers. If that is the case, he is, perhaps, in a minority of one.

Moving Mr. Fantino to the Canadian International Development Agency may reduce the friction between the former police chief and Mr. MacKay. But it does nothing to solve the Prime Minister’s biggest headache – that the Conservative voting (and fund-raising) base is outraged over the F-35 acquisition and appears to blame the Defence Minister for bungling the file. Visibility in Quebec must also be a concern of Mr. Harper and his lieutenant in that province. Christian Paradis, is not an answer, whatever the question.

The Prime Minister has one lever at his disposal to free up some space in cabinet – seven Senate positions that have to be filled this summer. He could justify appointing sitting cabinet ministers by noting that they at least were re-elected last year – unlike defeated candidates, Larry Smith, Josée Verner and Fabian Manning, all of whom now sit in the Red Chamber.

Mr. Harper seems to enjoy confounding the critics – and even expectations in his own caucus. But there is a sense within that caucus that if the Prime Minister was telling the truth when he said he doesn’t foresee major changes to his government, he may not have been telling the whole truth.

Original Article
Source: national post
Author: John Ivison