Then came word from Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Thursday that there will be no major ministerial shuffle before Parliament resumes in September — meaning MacKay will be staying put at National Defence for the foreseeable future.
Whether Harper decided to leave MacKay untouched because of his importance to the party, his ties to the Atlantic region, because he'd done a good job or to prove a point is a matter of sharp debate.
What is not is MacKay's record for emerging unscathed when the consensus among pundits and experts seems to be his time has come.
"None of this has been an easy ride for Peter MacKay," said author Bob Plamondon, who has written several books about the Conservative Party. "But it's a testament to his resilience that he's been able to take these hits."
There is general agreement MacKay remains politically valuable to the prime minister because of his role in the merger that created the current Conservative party and, perhaps more importantly, because of his standing in Atlantic Canada.
MacKay was leader of the federal Progressive Conservatives when he and Harper, who at the time headed the Canadian Alliance, decided to unite their two rightist parties in 2003 after more than a decade of Liberal rule.
It was a fateful decision that was initially blasted by many Progressive Conservatives and could have been the end of his political career.
Instead it resulted in the new Conservative party taking power three years later — and MacKay being guaranteed a senior ministerial post.
Nine years later, some of that lustre has warn off, but those interviewed say it still has bearing.
"People forget that if you're a Conservative, Peter MacKay is still a huge asset to the party," said former Conservative adviser Tim Powers, who is now a vice-president with consulting firm Summa Strategies.
"He's one of the most popular members of the Conservative party, he's one of the founding fathers and he has all sorts of political value that gives him staying power in different portfolios when others are after him."
At the same time, MacKay is one of the longest serving, highest profile and most well-respected Tories in the Atlantic region, enjoying what one person described as "icon" status.
Not only is this area home to many Canadian Forces' members, it is also the main beneficiary of the Conservative government's $35-billion shipbuilding strategy — and one of the federal Liberals' last bastions.
"He's a strong minister from Atlantic Canada, and there aren't very many of those," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos Reid.
Meanwhile, there are those who feel MacKay's record as defence minister isn't nearly as terrible as the opposition and media would have one believe.
The defence portfolio has generally been a graveyard for politicians; MacKay took over from Gordon O'Connor in August 2007 after the latter found himself in hot water over funeral benefits for fallen soldiers, the treatment of Afghan detainees and other issues.
In contrast, some say, MacKay is generally well-liked by the troops, managed to hold down the fort at National Defence through the deadliest years of the Afghanistan mission, and he's avoided making a glaring mistake that has hurt the Conservative brand.
"There has been a piling on of Peter MacKay for a number of months that I think is really at variance with the facts," said Plamondon. "I think he's been an exceptional minister."
But others say MacKay's gaffes, such as the Defence Department mishandling the F-35 project and his use of a search-and-rescue helicopter during a fishing trip, have simply been more difficult for average Canadians to grasp than the $16 orange juice that led to international development Bev Oda's fall.
"The F-35 thing tends to be rather esoteric," said Norman Spector, who served as prime minister Brian Mulroney's chief of staff. "A $16 orange juice is pretty graphic."
There is also a belief the prime minister, already smarting from having to replace Oda for her lavish spending, was keenly aware that a major shuffle would send a message that his government is in trouble — or even that he was to blame for appointing poor candidates.
Spector believes MacKay has been bloodied by the fall-out over the F-35 fiasco and his use of a search-and-rescue helicopter during a fishing trip in 2010, but that he was saved by a conscious decision on Harper's part not to shuffle his cabinet now.
"(Harper) does not want to contribute to the narrative that he has problems," Spector said. "The reason he didn't move on MacKay, assuming he will at some point, is that he made the strategic decision not to have a real cabinet shuffle at this point."
If the prime minister stays true to his word and doesn't shuffle his cabinet anytime soon — and if MacKay doesn't leave politics — he will become the longest serving defence minister since Sir Frederick William Borden held the post between 1896 and 1911.
Those interviewed agreed that as with any minister, whether MacKay stays or goes ultimately comes down to the prime minister — and the endless political calculation of pros and cons.
"And this prime minister keeps the political calculus and strategic implications of his decisions very close to his chest," said Queen's University political scientist Jonathan Rose.
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Lee Berthiaume
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