Tom Mulcair's 'Dutch disease' diagnosis was poor politics, but sound economics

The latest national job numbers came as a great surprise.

Great because they were up — a surprise because analysts were predicting the numbers would be down.

The top-line numbers, however, mask the hollowing out of a portion of the Canadian economy.

According to the Labour Force Survey, 1,688,300 Canadians were employed in the manufacturing sector in March, a drop of 1.8 per cent from the previous month.

Canada Has Dutch Disease, Bank Of America Declares

Is Canada’s oil sector harming the rest of the economy? According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the evidence points to yes.

In a new report, the bank has come out squarely in favour of the "Dutch Disease" theory — the notion that Canada's oil and gas boom has driven up the loonie to the point it's hurting other export-dependent parts of the economy.

Oil Sands fever

A clear diagnosis of the Oil Sands fever variant of Dutch Disease may be just what the doctor ordered to rally Canadian workers in the fight against global warming.

A rapid increase in natural resource investment and revenue usually drives up a nation’s currency. This generally makes other industries less competitive and can greatly weaken a country’s manufacturing base.

Widely known as "Dutch Disease" (named after a period of rapid expansion of the natural gas industry in the Netherlands), this well established economic paradox has become a taboo subject in this country. Canada’s highly class-conscious elite is worried that manufacturing workers might make common cause with environmental groups and even some business sectors to challenge the carbon/profit bomb known as the tar sands.

Dutch Disease plus unbalanced equalization: A shot across Alberta's oily bow

Let's call it Dutch Disease Redux with complications of Confederation.

Since Alberta's petroleum economy has almost unquestionably hurt Ontario's manufacturing base, it is axiomatic that Ontarians will soon demand a revised deal from Confederation.

This is a reality Albertans need to think about. Some may scoff and mutter that Central Canada deserves whatever it gets -- "Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark," and all that. But the electoral reality is that Ontario probably has the votes to make a good start on fixing this problem if voters there start to perceive it has gotten out of hand.

Canadian Manufacturing Down 3.1% In December

OTTAWA - A seasonal pause by Ontario's auto industry, combined with weakness in a broad range of other sectors, pushed Canada's manufacturing sales in December to the biggest month-to-month decline in nearly four years.

Statistics Canada said Friday that sales fell in 16 of 21 industries, representing 82 per cent of the manufacturing sector.

Sorry about what we said, Tom, but spare a sigh for Alberta, latest victim of Dutch Disease

Who would have thought Alberta, of all places, would end up suffering from Dutch Disease?

Surely it was just weeks ago we Albertans, always ornery and lightning quick to take offence, were excoriating the likes of federal Opposition Leader Tom Mulcair and then-Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty for daring to suggest such a thing might even be possible.

Mulcair defends stance on resources

Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair spent much of his time at a convention of provincial New Democrats in Saskatoon defending his position on resource development, which has come under fire from western leaders, including Premier Brad Wall.

"The Saskatchewan NDP's meeting this weekend is about the future and that's been one of our key themes - sustainable development, our responsibility to future generations - so it dovetails nicely with the debates that have been going on recently," Mulcair told reporters after a 30-minute speech to delegates.

Thomas Mulcair’s Dutch Disease warning supported by OECD report

A new OECD report seems to support controversial claims by NDP leader Thomas Mulcair that Canada is suffering from an economic condition known as Dutch Disease.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warns in a report released Wednesday that the run-up in commodity prices is leading to an uneven economy in Canada.

As well, it says the country needs to do more to develop non-resource aspects of the economy so as to maintain high levels of employment and an equitable distribution of wealth across regions.

Paul Martin critical of Mulcair's 'Dutch disease' comments

Former prime minister Paul Martin added his name Monday to the list of leaders unhappy with recent remarks by federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair about Alberta's oilsands.

Martin says it's overly simplistic for Mulcair to blame Canada's prosperous oilsands for artificially elevating the dollar and hurting manufacturing exports.

"To simplify what is a really important issue like that really does nobody a service," Martin told reporters Monday.

Thomas Mulcair and the politics of déjà vu

Having been out of the country for several weeks, it takes Ha few days to catch up on the very busy Thomas Mulcair. And when one does, the overwhelming sense is déjà vu.

It conjures up memories of David Lewis, back when the federal NDP rhetoric was full of "blue-eyed sheiks" and "corporate welfare bums." Heady stuff, but a trifle problematic.

Take all this talk about "Dutch disease," and how a soaring, resource-driven Canadian dollar is crippling manufacturing.

To be sure, the dollar is currently strong — for instance, trading a little above par for eight of the last 12 months. But there's nothing historically unusual about a strong dollar.

Illogical leaps of logic on the oil sands and economic growth

Federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is clearly a man who chooses to enrage rather than engage. In advance of his visit to Alberta’s oil sands last week, he declared that “their model for development is Nigeria.” That he had never been to either Nigeria or to the oils ands was clearly no impediment to that astonishing pronouncement.

Nevertheless, his Alberta hosts did their best to show him the great strides industry has made in reducing the environmental impact of oil-extraction operations, as well as the restored mine sites where wood bison and other wildlife now roam.

Mr. Mulcair would have learned that the entire disturbed area of the oil sands is 100 square kilometres smaller than the footprint of the City of Toronto and comprises just one-10th of 1 per cent of the Alberta northern boreal forest. He would also have learned that the oil sands produce only 5 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Sask. premier has 'concerns' with Mulcair's Dutch Disease

NDP leader Tom Mulcair's tone may have changed following his first trip to Alberta's oilsands but his diagnosis for what is ailing Canada's economy remains the same, says Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

In an interview airing on CBC Radio's The House on Saturday, Wall tells host Evan Solomon the NDP leader is still "pretty blunt about not having changed his position that we have 'Dutch Disease'."

That's because after touring Alberta's oil sands on Thursday, Mulcair repeated comments he first made during the May 5 episode of The House, when he told Solomon the Canadian dollar was being held "artifically high" by the oilsands causing the economy harm in other parts of the country such as the manufacturing sector in the East.

Mulcair Oilsands Trip Unlikely To Put An End To His Dutch Disease Strategy

Western premiers hope Thomas Mulcair’s visit to Alberta's oilsands will change his mind on whether Canada is suffering from Dutch disease. But the NDP Leader, who welcomes the attention and the debate, is unlikely to bail on a strategy that is working for him.

A report from the Pembina Institute released this week backs up Mulcair’s views on the effects the oilsands are having on the Canadian economy. Of course, Pembina is a think tank with an environmentalist mission and, not to be outdone, the more right-wing Macdonald-Laurier Institute came out with a report of their own dispelling Mulcair’s argument.

Alberta's own budget backs 'Dutch disease' theory: NDP

OTTAWA — The federal New Democratic Party is citing information in Alberta's 2012 budget to support leader Tom Mulcair's argument that a high dollar caused by booming natural resource exports is hurting Canadian manufacturers.

A section of the provincial government's spring budget, titled Risks to Alberta's Economic Outlook, refers positively to the importance of the oilsands to Alberta's economy.

But the report notes that the province's manufacturing sector is challenged by the high Canadian dollar, which in turn is linked to natural resource exports.

"The Canadian dollar remains elevated, buoyed by high commodity prices. An appreciation of the Canadian dollar could hurt exporters," it states.

Vanishing act: Where did Canada's mid-sized companies go?

Canada is in the midst of a chilling mid-sized business mystery.

In just a few short years, hundreds of companies that employ between 100 and 499 people vanished – and no one knows exactly why.

This phenomenon is alarming because mid-sized firms are more productive, hire more Canadians and have more clout on a global scale. Against a backdrop of warring governments, massive sovereign debt loads and a shifting trade picture, their importance to the country’s economy has never been higher, their rapid disappearance never more in need of an explanation.

Mulcair Oilsands Trip: NDP Leader In Alberta After Controversial Dutch Disease Comments

FORT MCMURRAY, Alta. - Federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair toured Alberta's sprawling oilsands Thursday, saying he was left agog at the size of the operations, but also with a renewed determination to make sure it all gets cleaned up.

"These are extraordinary undertakings on a human scale. I mean they're massive," Mulcair said at the Alberta legislature in Edmonton after his trip.

"We were able during the helicopter part to really take in a vast vista of what was being accomplished.

"It's extraordinarily impressive. But it also brings with it real challenges that if we don't assume in this generation we're going to bear in future generations."

Awed by oil sands, Mulcair calls for more environmental oversight

Precisely one thing surprised Thomas Mulcair on his visit to Alberta: the scale of the oil sands.

During his first visit, including a helicopter flight over several oil sands mines, to a region he has criticized, Mr. Mulcair was overwhelmed by the “awe-inspiring” display.

He stopped short, however, of calling the mines dirty.

“These are extraordinary undertakings on a human scale. I mean, they’re massive,” Mr. Mulcair said. “It’s extraordinarily impressive, but it also brings with it real challenges. Real challenges that if we don’t assume in this generation, we’re going to bear in future generations.”

Brad Wall, defender of the West

When Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall took on Thomas Mulcair – on Twitter, no less – over the federal NDP Leader’s controversial “Dutch disease” comments, he couldn’t have imagined the national debate his move would touch off.

Three weeks after the fact, the matter is still fuelling political discussion in Canada. While the resultant furor wasn’t specifically on the agenda at the Western Premiers’ Conference in Edmonton this week, it certainly provided a compelling backdrop for the gathering.

Perhaps more than anything, the affair seemed to confer on Mr. Wall a role with which he seems entirely comfortable: protector of the West. Given that he is the senior statesman among a group of Western premiers who have very little experience in their positions, he was the likeliest candidate for the part in any event.

Mulcair’s politically deft oilsands critique is right (sort of)

There are three noteworthy elements to New Democratic Party leader Tom Mulcair’s critique of the oilsands. The first is that he’s right — more or less. The second is that the Western premiers know he’s right.

The third is that, for the NDP, criticizing the Alberta tar sands is good politics.

Mulcair has been savaged by Stephen Harper’s ruling Conservatives — and the premiers of Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia — for suggesting there is a downside to the oilsands.

In fact, Mulcair’s argument is neither new nor odd. He says the high loonie, by making Canadian exports pricier in foreign markets, has hurt Ontario manufacturers. And he says the dollar is high, in large part, because Canada’s booming oil economy has boosted worldwide demand for this country’s currency.

Mulcair needs to seize chance

Whether it was intended or not, the meeting of western Canadian leaders in Edmonton provided federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair a huge opportunity to turn around his Dutch disease.

Until now Mr. Mulcair has stuck to his twisted argument that the oilsands are hurting Canada, either by inflating the currency or destroying the environment. But outside the party's Wednesday caucus meeting he seemed to soften his tone.

Insisting that he never took issue with provincial policies on developing the resource, the NDP leader also refused to take the bait and repeat his accusation that the heated development of oilsands has imposed on Canada a case of Dutch disease that's killing the nation's manufacturing sector.