After HST rebuke, Christy Clark has had enough of elections

It was Feb. 26, and B.C. Liberal Party members were choosing a leader to replace Gordon Campbell, chased from office early in his third term. His successor would instantly become B.C. Premier.

The front-runner cast her ballot and spoke with reporters. There was no misconstruing her remarks. If chosen leader, said Christy Clark, she would go to the polls as soon as possible. B.C. legislation requires a general election every four years, on the second Tuesday in May, but there is some flexibility; an election can be held earlier than scheduled. And that’s what she promised. “I think the premier needs a mandate,” said candidate Clark. “So if I’m elected premier tonight, we will not be waiting until the fixed election date, which never anticipated an unelected premier for over two years.”

She won the leadership and became Premier. Two months later, she captured Mr. Campbell’s open Vancouver seat in a byelection, and she mused again about an early general election.

On Wednesday, Premier Clark dramatically changed course. There will be no election — and by her own reckoning, no clear government mandate — until May 14, 2013. Her announcement was disappointing; she should seek approval from all British Columbians. Her credibility takes a hit. But the broken promise comes as no surprise, as it follows recent key events.

Last week’s historic referendum result, the repudiation of her government’s harmonized sales tax, demonstrates the weakness of Premier Clark’s position. Her Liberal government was barely ahead of the NDP in polls conducted before the referendum; it’s hard to imagine how the HST result could help. There’s an emerging third party to think about, the B.C. Conservatives, led by former federal MP John Cummins. It threatens to siphon Liberal support all across the province, including ridings where the NDP is a close second.

The Liberals do maintain a healthy majority in the legislative assembly, with 49 seats to the NDP’s 34 (there are two independent MLAs), but it’s not invincible. Calling an election now, as some expected the Premier might, would have honoured her leadership campaign pledge, but it might have spelled political death.

There are other factors, including the threat of job action by 41,000 B.C. public schoolteachers. Their union leaders are bargaining with the Clark government over a new collective agreement. The teachers say they won’t perform certain administrative functions, such as filling out report cards, unless a deal is reached with provincial negotiators before Sept. 6, when students return from summer vacation. A full-fledged strike is also possible. For a centre-right government fighting a union-supported opposition, that’s a grim election campaign scenario.

Newly installed BC NDP leader Adrian Dix is not a warm or charismatic figure, and his aggressive style is bound to alienate some potential voters. British Columbians have 21 months more to measure and compare personalities, and this could work in favour of Premier Clark.

To maintain power beyond 2013, she must demonstrate her government is different from the Campbell regime, to which it remains firmly tied. She has taken some bold steps, such as boosting the province’s minimum wage and cancelling a provincial hydro energy rate increase, but her keynote “families first” agenda still seems like fluff. What about new jobs she promised her government would help create?

Premier Clark has to convince an uneasy Liberal caucus that she has sound political judgment and can deliver votes. During her leadership campaign, she had the support of just one sitting Liberal MLA. Has she won over any others since taking her seat? There are some indications she has not. In mid-August, she lost her Attorney General, Barry Penner. A Cabinet minister of longstanding, first elected to the B.C legislature in 1996, Mr. Penner announced he was stepping down from his important post and would not seek re-election.

Mr. Penner offered a stock explanation, saying he wanted to spend more time with his young family. But his timing was strange, coming just ahead of the HST referendum result, when the Liberal caucus needed a show of unity, and two weeks before Premier Clark declared that she would not call an early election, after all.

Perhaps something other than family had influenced Mr. Penner’s decision to cut bait. Former Attorney General Wally Oppal revealed in a statement this week that he had left a provocative voice message for Mr. Penner back in July, in which he suggested the government consider the plight of “the poor aboriginal women” who have been denied government funding to appear at a provincial missing women inquiry.

Mr. Oppal is the inquiry commissioner, appointed by the province. His voice message to the then-attorney general was ill advised and could impugn his impartiality. Mr. Penner didn’t erase the compromising voice message; he told government lawyers about it. There is speculation that he asked his leader to remove Mr. Oppal from the inquiry, and that Premier Clark refused.

Mr. Oppal refuses to discuss the matter further. Mr. Penner was camping with his young family Friday and could not be reached for comment. Premier Clark, meanwhile, was announcing another “families first” initiative, an $8-million commitment to build new playgrounds across B.C.

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Source: National Post