PM could be ensconced in power until 2020, say experts

Insiders say the PM's political strengths and divided opposition could make this Stephen Harper's decade to shape Canada.

After uniting the right, winning three consecutive Conservative governments, and now facing an opposition in disarray, Prime Minister Stephen Harper could be in power until 2020.

"I think he's safely ensconced for at least another eight years," predicts veteran Parliament Hill journalist and Globe and Mail national affairs columnist Lawrence Martin, who documented Prime Minister Harper's (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) consolidation of power over five years of minority government in Harperland: The Politics of Control. The bestselling book was re-released last week with a new chapter.

With both the NDP and Liberals in search of leaders who can challenge the Prime Minister in 2015, it appears that the next election is already his to lose.
"Even when it was a minority situation, we saw the controls he was able to put over the system, and if he can do that in a minority, imagine what he can do with a majority," Mr. Martin said of a Prime Minister known for exerting tight control over his Cabinet, Parliament and the federal civil service.

Tom Flanagan, a former key adviser to Mr. Harper, said that this Prime Minister's interests are purely political. While his predecessors have retired to corporate boardrooms after two or three terms in office, Mr. Flanagan doubts that the same endgame appeals to Mr. Harper.

"He doesn't really care much about money," Mr. Flanagan told The Hill Times. "He likes to watch hockey and so on, but he doesn't have a lot of active interests that he wants to pursue. He doesn't play golf. He doesn't play tennis. He doesn't care much for travel. He doesn't paint. He doesn't garden. He doesn't fish. You know, he loves politics."

Mr. Harper's legacy to date has been largely political. He's credited with reuniting the populist Reform and Canadian Alliance and the establishment Progressive Conservatives into a single Conservative Party of Canada, and gradually earning the trust of a large enough portion of the electorate to gain his first majority government earlier this year. After five years of minority government, he now has four years to focus less on political manoeuvering and more on implementing his policies.

"His key achievement is bringing the Tories back together," Canadian historian Jack Granatstein said of the early Harper legacy. "His second great achievement is winning the majority, and his third is to have done this despite the fact that he frightens people."

Prof. Granatstein said there has yet to be "a great Harper monument" that can constitute a legacy, but it's clear that the Prime Minister wants to supplant the Liberals, who in eight years have gone from majority government to third-party status in the House of Commons, as Canada's natural governing party.

But while observers point to political victories as the hallmarks of Mr. Harper's first five years in office, the gradual reorientation of significant policies during that time indicates a long-term vision that is distinctly conservative, emphasizing militarism, law and order, the monarchy, and a prioritization of the economy over the environment.

Under Mr. Harper's leadership, Canada played a leading role in NATO's International Security Assistance Force operations in southern Afghanistan throughout the latter half of the past decade. Canada has also played a leading role in NATO operations in Libya on Mr. Harper's watch, with Canadian Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard commanding an ongoing air campaign that supported Libyan rebels in the recent ouster of the Gadhafi regime.

"He's been reasserting Canada as an international player—but as a participant as opposed to simply a blue bereted based advocate," noted Conservative strategist Tim Powers, vice president of Summa Communications.

Mr. Powers added the staunch defence of Israel to the list of foreign policies that define and distinguish the current Prime Minister. Last week at the United Nations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Canada's support for Israel in negotiating peace with the Palestinian government, who has taken a statehood bid to the UN Security Council—a bid Mr. Harper dismissed as "counter-productive."

A more militaristic tone at home has also been a defining characteristic of Mr. Harper's legacy-to-date. The defence of Canada's sovereignty in the Arctic has been a key justification for boosting military personnel numbers, updating air and naval fleets with top of the line replacements, and guaranteeing long-term defence spending.

When it comes to energy and the environment, Mr. Harper's government has gladly respected constitutional jurisdictions and left it to the provinces to develop their resources and set their own environmental standards. At the federal level, the focus has been on promoting Canada internationally as an energy superpower, and harmonizing environmental policies with the U.S.

The economy continues to be the defining issue of the Conservative government, and with the risk of another global recession, it remains to be seen whether or not it will be an achievement or an albatross for the Prime Minister. If there's one thing that could lead to his demise, it may well be the effects of a potential four years of economic stagnation on the Canadian electorate.

"The big threat to him and the country is the global condition of the economy and how that might reverberate back here," said Mr. Martin, who describes Mr. Harper as having "old-fashioned, 1950s styled" conservative Canadian values based on pre-welfare state law and order and a respect for the monarchy.

Both values have been present early on in Mr. Harper's majority rule. Over the summer the Department of Foreign Affairs directed all Canadian embassies to display a portrait of Queen Elizabeth. The 'Royal' title has also been returned to Canada's Air Force and Navy, a point noted with approval by British Prime Minister David Cameron in his address to Canadian Parliament last week.

The Conservatives' omnibus crime legislation has competed with the state of the economy in the early debates of the 41^st Parliament. Despite downward trends in national crime rates, the Conservative government has packaged together five years of crime legislation that was blocked throughout minority government, and has introduced stronger minimum sentences on drug offences, new restrictions on house arrests and pardons, and harsh penalties for young offenders.

Early on in his career as Prime Minister, Stephen Harper drew occasional comparisons to former Ontario Progressive Conservative premier Bill Davis, who summed up his own style of political leadership as "Bland works." Mr. Davis, who won four elections over 14 years as premier of Ontario, was known as an astute politician with limited charisma, but the comparison ends there.

Although Mr. Davis did win four elections, his premiership capped off four decades of Progressive Conservative rule in Ontario. In contrast, Mr. Harper has reversed the historical dominance of the Liberal Party, and is due to become Canada's longest serving Conservative Prime Minister since Sir John A. Macdonald by the end of his first majority government in October 2015.

It may be the achievement of a majority government that has put an end to the Bill Davis comparison and led observers to begin comparing Mr. Harper to the prime ministers of the latter half of the 20th century.

With so few long-standing Conservative Prime Ministers, it's not surprising that the tendency is to compare him to some of the most successful Liberal examples.

The reunification of his party, his survival in minority governments and his ultimate achievement of a majority lead Prof. Granatstein to compare Mr. Harper to Mackenzie King, who reunited populist and establishment elements of the Liberal Party and went on to serve more than two decades as Prime Minister.

"He built quite a distinguished record internationally and at home, changed the country dramatically over a long period in office, and it may well be that that's the same way that Harper's operating," observed Prof. Granatstein.

Prof. Flanagan agreed that a greater comparison exists between Mr. Harper and Mr. King, noting that King was also charismatically challenged with an intellectual curiosity for economics, and "used ruthless methods when he had to in order to survive."

Mr. Powers went as far as to liken the Prime Minister to former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien, whom Mr. Harper reviled in the final years of Mr. Chrétien's reign. "He watched Chrétien perform as a young MP, and I think he's inherited similar circumstances," said Mr. Powers, comparing the divided right that opposed Mr. Chrétien to the divided left that now opposes Mr. Harper.

While the tendency is to compare political leaders to the predecessors, beyond the commonalities, Mr. Harper is already viewed as exercising a distinct style of leadership that future Prime Ministers will be measured against.

"Ultimately, he's going to want to be, and should be described as his own leader," Mr. Powers noted. "He borrows best practices from his extensive understanding of Canadian political history."

Origin
Source: Hill Times