“After the Arab Spring, there will be a Quebec Autumn!” What Pierre Curzi, a sovereigntist MNA, was trying to say was that, just as several Arab countries have risen up against despotism, so this autumn would see a surge of fervour for sovereignty in Quebec.
Unfortunately, Mr. Curzi chose a very bad metaphor – since autumn, far from being the season of renewal, is the season of death, the time when leaves fall off the trees and nature prepares for the long slumbering silence of winter.
Unwittingly, however, he had it right. Indeed, it seems the sovereigntist movement is slowly and painfully reaching the end of its 50-year life. The first major sign was the rout of the Bloc Québécois in the last federal election.
But the situation has now worsened for the sovereigntists, since the Parti Québécois – the only force that could actually achieve sovereignty – is imploding under vicious internal dissent and violent attacks from a dozen radical splinter groups accusing the PQ leadership of being too moderate.
Throughout the summer, PQ Leader Pauline Marois has faced a mutiny among her troops. Half a dozen MNAs angrily resigned from the party, several MNAs are openly vying for her job, and others are at pains to find ideas to “rejuvenate” the party. Ms. Marois has never been a popular figure, but now her credibility is demolished. Are the sovereigntists engaged in a process of self-destruction?
Most voters, meanwhile, are indifferent to the noisy battle going on within the dwindling ranks of the die-hard sovereigntists and seem once again prepared to choose anything but a sovereigntist party.
According to a CROP survey published by La Presse, support for the PQ is down to 18 per cent. Amazingly, Jean Charest’s Liberals are now ahead of the PQ. Even more amazing is the popularity of François Legault, a former PQ minister who heads a non-existent party.
Mr. Legault is a retired businessman whose record as a former minister was anything but stellar. He’s a poor public speaker and doesn’t exude an ounce of charisma. The platform of his group, temporarily called Coalition pour l’avenir du Québec, is a half-baked document. But Mr. Legault has one thing going for him: He promises to put the issue of sovereignty to rest for at least 10 years.
If the coalition were transformed into a political party (which probably will happen this fall) and an election were held, it would handsomely win over both the Liberals and the PQ. The Liberals would form the Official Opposition, and the PQ’s parliamentary presence would be reduced to a rump, mirroring the Bloc’s position in Ottawa.
Moreover, 59 per cent of the coalition’s support would come from former PQ voters – presumably the same group of voters who rejected Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc in favour of the NDP in May. They’re now slipping out of the sovereigntist camp, ready to throw their vote at an embryonic party, just as they voted for invisible NDP candidates in the federal election.
The proportion of people who nominally favour sovereignty hasn’t changed since the 1980 referendum (it’s between 38 and 40 per cent), and most French-speaking Quebeckers would steadfastly refuse to be identified as federalists. They don’t want to vote against sovereignty (which is why they’re adamantly against the idea of a third referendum), but they don’t want to hear about it any more.
Origin Unfortunately, Mr. Curzi chose a very bad metaphor – since autumn, far from being the season of renewal, is the season of death, the time when leaves fall off the trees and nature prepares for the long slumbering silence of winter.
Unwittingly, however, he had it right. Indeed, it seems the sovereigntist movement is slowly and painfully reaching the end of its 50-year life. The first major sign was the rout of the Bloc Québécois in the last federal election.
But the situation has now worsened for the sovereigntists, since the Parti Québécois – the only force that could actually achieve sovereignty – is imploding under vicious internal dissent and violent attacks from a dozen radical splinter groups accusing the PQ leadership of being too moderate.
Throughout the summer, PQ Leader Pauline Marois has faced a mutiny among her troops. Half a dozen MNAs angrily resigned from the party, several MNAs are openly vying for her job, and others are at pains to find ideas to “rejuvenate” the party. Ms. Marois has never been a popular figure, but now her credibility is demolished. Are the sovereigntists engaged in a process of self-destruction?
Most voters, meanwhile, are indifferent to the noisy battle going on within the dwindling ranks of the die-hard sovereigntists and seem once again prepared to choose anything but a sovereigntist party.
According to a CROP survey published by La Presse, support for the PQ is down to 18 per cent. Amazingly, Jean Charest’s Liberals are now ahead of the PQ. Even more amazing is the popularity of François Legault, a former PQ minister who heads a non-existent party.
Mr. Legault is a retired businessman whose record as a former minister was anything but stellar. He’s a poor public speaker and doesn’t exude an ounce of charisma. The platform of his group, temporarily called Coalition pour l’avenir du Québec, is a half-baked document. But Mr. Legault has one thing going for him: He promises to put the issue of sovereignty to rest for at least 10 years.
If the coalition were transformed into a political party (which probably will happen this fall) and an election were held, it would handsomely win over both the Liberals and the PQ. The Liberals would form the Official Opposition, and the PQ’s parliamentary presence would be reduced to a rump, mirroring the Bloc’s position in Ottawa.
Moreover, 59 per cent of the coalition’s support would come from former PQ voters – presumably the same group of voters who rejected Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc in favour of the NDP in May. They’re now slipping out of the sovereigntist camp, ready to throw their vote at an embryonic party, just as they voted for invisible NDP candidates in the federal election.
The proportion of people who nominally favour sovereignty hasn’t changed since the 1980 referendum (it’s between 38 and 40 per cent), and most French-speaking Quebeckers would steadfastly refuse to be identified as federalists. They don’t want to vote against sovereignty (which is why they’re adamantly against the idea of a third referendum), but they don’t want to hear about it any more.
Source: Globe&Mail
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