MONTREAL
Notwithstanding the results of the May federal election, the progressive current that has long shaped Canada’s modern politics is by all indications still running strong.
In the face of a Conservative dam in Parliament, it is springing up in unlikely places, sometimes with unintended or unexpected consequences.
While the eyes of federal Conservative brain trust were peeled on a too-close-to-call Ontario campaign, a Joe-Clark-style Red Tory has slipped into power in Stephen Harper’s stronghold of Alberta.
Alison Redford’s election as the leader of Alberta’s Conservative party and premier-designate is the latest in a string of potentially game-changing results for Canada’s national politics.
It comes on the heels of the NDP surge of the last federal election in Quebec and almost a year to the day since Calgary surprised the country by setting its sights on a left-leaning mayoral candidate.
Alberta and Quebec have been the scene of some of the major upsets of the past year. That should come as no surprise.
In both venues, change is seeping through the cracks of the foundations of aging provincial coalitions.
Over the past four decades, Quebec’s sovereignty movement and Alberta’s Conservative dynasty have had a defining influence on Canada’s politics — respectively forcing their constitutional agenda and fiscal approach unto the national radar.
Both coalitions came of age over the course of Pierre Trudeau’s reign.
When Peter Lougheed first brought the Tory dynasty to power in Alberta in 1971, René Lévesque was laying the ground for the 1976 Parti Québécois victory.
On their simultaneous watches, both provinces turned their backs on the federal Liberals, setting in motion the three-decade long decline of that party as a national institution.
But today those provincial powerhouses are losing steam. They are fragmenting.
In the next Alberta election, three of the four main parties — including the Liberals — will feature leaders who once cohabited under the provincial Tory tent.
The vacuum created by the erosion of the right flank of the Conservative party to the Wildrose Alliance party made the victory of a progressive Tory leader such as Redford possible.
There is also anecdotal evidence that an unspecified number of atypical new Tories (disengaged or non-Conservative voters) joined the party over its leadership campaign so as to have a direct say on the choice of the next premier.
An even more dramatic realignment is ongoing in Quebec, where last May’s Bloc defeat has brought the PQ to the verge of implosion.
The next provincial ballot could feature as many four parties led by former PQ fellow travellers and the current favorite in the polls, ex-minister François Legault, wants to set aside sovereignty for at least a generation.
The dynamics of the next Alberta and Quebec campaigns stand to be strikingly different from those of the recent past; their results could transform the federal-provincial debate.
Few — including the Prime Minister — expected a progressive alternative to his vision of conservatism to rise from the ranks of his own party in Alberta, especially less than six months after his first majority victory.
At least until the dust settles on the Alberta developments, Ontario offers Harper his last best chance to find a soul mate in one of the four most populous provinces.
But a Conservative victory on Thursday would have more to do with the law of unintended consequences than with an Ontario embrace of more conservatism.
As the provincial campaign comes to an end, the NDP has become the wild card of Thursday’s vote and a potential last-ditch card up the Tory sleeve.
At the federal level, a divided progressive opposition is a key ingredient of Conservative success.
Still, even in profoundly conservative environments such as Alberta, Canada’s progressive streak is alive and well enough to change the rules of a game Harper was expected to dominate unchallenged for the foreseeable future.
Origin
Source: Toronto Star
Notwithstanding the results of the May federal election, the progressive current that has long shaped Canada’s modern politics is by all indications still running strong.
In the face of a Conservative dam in Parliament, it is springing up in unlikely places, sometimes with unintended or unexpected consequences.
While the eyes of federal Conservative brain trust were peeled on a too-close-to-call Ontario campaign, a Joe-Clark-style Red Tory has slipped into power in Stephen Harper’s stronghold of Alberta.
Alison Redford’s election as the leader of Alberta’s Conservative party and premier-designate is the latest in a string of potentially game-changing results for Canada’s national politics.
It comes on the heels of the NDP surge of the last federal election in Quebec and almost a year to the day since Calgary surprised the country by setting its sights on a left-leaning mayoral candidate.
Alberta and Quebec have been the scene of some of the major upsets of the past year. That should come as no surprise.
In both venues, change is seeping through the cracks of the foundations of aging provincial coalitions.
Over the past four decades, Quebec’s sovereignty movement and Alberta’s Conservative dynasty have had a defining influence on Canada’s politics — respectively forcing their constitutional agenda and fiscal approach unto the national radar.
Both coalitions came of age over the course of Pierre Trudeau’s reign.
When Peter Lougheed first brought the Tory dynasty to power in Alberta in 1971, René Lévesque was laying the ground for the 1976 Parti Québécois victory.
On their simultaneous watches, both provinces turned their backs on the federal Liberals, setting in motion the three-decade long decline of that party as a national institution.
But today those provincial powerhouses are losing steam. They are fragmenting.
In the next Alberta election, three of the four main parties — including the Liberals — will feature leaders who once cohabited under the provincial Tory tent.
The vacuum created by the erosion of the right flank of the Conservative party to the Wildrose Alliance party made the victory of a progressive Tory leader such as Redford possible.
There is also anecdotal evidence that an unspecified number of atypical new Tories (disengaged or non-Conservative voters) joined the party over its leadership campaign so as to have a direct say on the choice of the next premier.
An even more dramatic realignment is ongoing in Quebec, where last May’s Bloc defeat has brought the PQ to the verge of implosion.
The next provincial ballot could feature as many four parties led by former PQ fellow travellers and the current favorite in the polls, ex-minister François Legault, wants to set aside sovereignty for at least a generation.
The dynamics of the next Alberta and Quebec campaigns stand to be strikingly different from those of the recent past; their results could transform the federal-provincial debate.
Few — including the Prime Minister — expected a progressive alternative to his vision of conservatism to rise from the ranks of his own party in Alberta, especially less than six months after his first majority victory.
At least until the dust settles on the Alberta developments, Ontario offers Harper his last best chance to find a soul mate in one of the four most populous provinces.
But a Conservative victory on Thursday would have more to do with the law of unintended consequences than with an Ontario embrace of more conservatism.
As the provincial campaign comes to an end, the NDP has become the wild card of Thursday’s vote and a potential last-ditch card up the Tory sleeve.
At the federal level, a divided progressive opposition is a key ingredient of Conservative success.
Still, even in profoundly conservative environments such as Alberta, Canada’s progressive streak is alive and well enough to change the rules of a game Harper was expected to dominate unchallenged for the foreseeable future.
Origin
Source: Toronto Star
No comments:
Post a Comment