Here we are, just six quick months after Stephen Harper's Conservative party snatched its first majority government on May 2. Six months might not seem like a whole lot of time in which we can judge a government that gets four years to carry out its mandate, but owing to their emboldened majority, the Tories have accomplished a fair amount – more than many Canadians would have surely liked them to. Harper and his party campaigned on five key priorities – job creation, tax relief for families, ending the deficit by 2014-15, making Canada's streets safer, and investing in the North and the Canadian Forces – all the while promising that only their party would “focus on the economy” once elected. Bearing that in mind, it's worth finding out just how well they've lived up to their promises.On that first item, job creation, well, the numbers don't lie. Unemployment is at a stubborn 7.1 per cent, which is still more than a point higher than it was before the 2008 recession, but about one per cent lower than it was a year ago. During the campaign, the Tories stuck to the line that lower taxes and increased trade with new partners would help reduce unemployment. But trade talks with the European Union have stalled and the security perimeter deal with the U.S. could even be shelved. Neither of those two entities are likely to open up to Canada any further while they deal with systemic debt crises that have by and large escaped Canada. Case in point: Canada, for the first time, won't be getting an exemption from the Buy America clause of Barack Obama's new jobs bill, meaning fewer business opportunities south of the border for Canadian companies.
Just as well, the Tories' continued support for the Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf of Mexico will also lead to refining jobs in Alberta heading south. As far as tax policy goes, we'd have to wait at least a year to see if they'd have any effect on getting more Canadians employed. However, the Tories can certainly claim credit for the jobs that will be created by the $35-billion ship-building contracts that have been awarded to Halifax and Vancouver, as these are expected to bring those two cities around 15,000 jobs over the next 30 years. Unemployment has decreased, marginally, but it will take more than a make-work project in two cities to keep that trend heading downward.
And what about those tax cuts for families? The Tories said they wouldn't introduce their “Family Tax Cut” until the government's books have been balanced, which they said would happen by 2014-15. That ... doesn't look like it will happen on schedule, as GDP growth projections from this year have recently been downgraded from 2.9 per cent to 2.2 per cent. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has said we should expect a “significant” adjustment to the government's coffers because of that slowed growth, putting the 2014-15 deadline in jeopardy. And that's in spite of the five-per-cent across-the-board budget cuts each federal department has been tasked to find, with some agencies (the CBC, most notably) facing an even more onerous 10-per-cent cut, even though a certain federal political party promised to “maintain or increase” funding for the public broadcaster prior to May 2.
Meanwhile, the departments, from Defence to Environment to the Treasury Board, continue to follow their marching orders by axing a slew of positions (which, coincidentally, really won't help that whole job creation strategy much). Oh, and it's worth mentioning that the man in charge of doling out these cuts, one Anthony Clement, is also at the centre of a controversy over his flouting of government rules to sprinkle $50 million around his riding to beautify it for the 2010 G8 summit. Had that money been, say, used to fund veterans' programs, then maybe that department wouldn't be cutting 500 jobs over the next few years. What does this mean for the family tax cut? Well, if we can take the Tories at their word, we guess we'll just have to wait until they're re-elected again for them to implement it.
One aspect in which the Tories have truly been living up to their word is by aggressively pushing their omnibus crime bill through the House of Commons within 100 sitting days of Parliament. The Safe Streets and Communities Act, a bundle of nine separate crime bills that the Tories couldn't pass as a minority government, will introduce a slew of mandatory minimum sentences for mostly drug- and sex-related crimes, make it more difficult for prisoners to get parole, and eliminate house arrest for serious offenders. All this comes as crime rates in Canada are at historic lows, and as calls for the end of marijuana prohibition get louder and louder. In sum, the bill will lead to more (and less deserving) convicts serving prison sentences, which will necessitate the creation of more prison space to host all these new no-goodniks. As an aside, no one can really agree upon how much this bill will cost, let alone how much it will cost to house this new boon of prisoners, but if you're one of the 7.1 per cent of adults who are unemployed, we'd suggest you start sending off resumes to Corrections Canada.
The Conservatives' relationship with the Canadian Forces has taken a few twists and turns since May 2. The combat mission in Afghanistan evolved into a training role in July, meaning soldiers are now stationed mostly in Kabul where they will assist the Afghan National Army in figuring out how to run itself. You can debate the sense of Canadians being in Afghanistan 'til you're blue in the face, but the Tories did stick to the withdrawal timetable that both they and the Liberals agreed upon in the previous session of Parliament. The NATO mission in Libya, helmed by Canadian Gen. Charles Bouchard, was a mitigated success, even if the Canadian government played little role in its planning or execution. The real question is just what they intend to do now that the aerial mission is over and Libya begins the long process of building civil institutions that had been neglected for decades under Gadhafi. There is clearly a role for Canada to play in assisting Libyans in developing responsible government, but will Foreign Affairs keep their focus on North Africa once it's faded from the headlines? Their renewed focus on tying international aid to Canadian business and commercial interests suggests they might.
The government continues to procure new equipment for the Canadian Forces, in part by doling out those massive military ship-building contracts to Vancouver and Halifax in a process that was universally heralded as clean and competent. That a government is earning plaudits for not interfering in what should always be a bureaucratic decision is a little lost on us, but hey, it's better than them dishing out pork for politically based reasons, we suppose. The precise opposite happened with the Tories' procurement of the F-35 fighter jets, which we still don't have a definitive price for. We also don't know if they'll be able to operate in the Arctic, or heck, when we might actually have them as part of the air force. But the Tories did bring back the word “Royal” to the official names of the navy and the air force, so that's gotta count for something, right?
Throughout the campaign (and ever since), Harper et al. have repeated the mantra that only they can be trusted to “focus on the economy.” And how have they done that so far? Well, they've taken the liberty of devoting much of their energies to intervening in labour disputes and in the private and semi-private sectors. Back in June, they forced 48,000 Canada Post workers back to work for less money than what their employer had been offering to end a two-week-long mail strike-turned-lockout. Federal Labour Minister Lisa Raitt has seen her profile rise accordingly, as she's averted two separate Air Canada strikes by threatening their unions with back-to-work legislation as well. She justified her decision by saying a flight attendants' strike would threaten the health of the Canadian economy, even if there were other air and rail lines that were willing to fill the gap left by fewer Air Canada planes in the skies. Legislatively, however, the Tories have been more keen to focus on the crime bill, copyright law, ending the gun registry, toughening penalties against refugee smugglers, and enforcing the right to fly the flag. To us, that sounds a little more like "focusing on the Criminal Code," but if you're up for some mental gymnastics, you could make the case that the Tories have been “focusing on the economy” by breaking the back of organized labour.
Whether the Tories have lived up to their campaign promises has not a cut and dry answer. Their pitch to get rid of the deficit by 2014-15 seems more and more suspect each day, throwing the sprinkling of tax credits they promised into question. At the same time, it's only been six months. Job creation could speed up, or it could turn south, especially if the eurozone debt crisis snowballs any further. The Tories can't really be blamed for economic conditions in Europe. But the same goes with claims that the Tories are any better stewards at growing the economy than any of their rivals – whether it's up or down is entirely up to the whims of the global economy, regardless of who takes credit for it. There are still another four years until the next federal election. They've thrown red meat toward the base with the end of the gun registry and the crime bill, but in the next four years we'll truly see if the Tories will be able to achieve the prime minister's dream of becoming Canada's new "natural governing party." Their mixed record so far suggests they have a ways to go yet.
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Source: the Mark
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