City Hall forecast 2012

A look ahead at the big issues that will dominate the council agenda in 2012, plus a few fearless predictions (uh oh) and tips for surviving the big cheese, also known as Rob Ford.

Locking out logic

Herr Ford is banking on a scrap with the city’s outside and inside workers’ unions to boost his sagging political fortunes in 2012. His administration has been busy for weeks laying the groundwork for a lockout early in the new year.

But forcing a work stoppage is an iffy proposition. The unions have nothing to lose, since the mayor has made no secret of his intention to chop some 7,000 jobs. They’ll go into this fight with that in mind.

If voters were pissed off about hauling their garbage to depots in mid-summer in 2009, they may be angrier about lugging it to the dump in the dead of winter.

Garbage in, garbage out

The mayor’s pledge to privatize garbage pickup for 165,000 households west of Yonge to the Humber River was supposed to cost taxpayers less, but it’s clear from the numbers his administration is hiding that the supposed savings from that sell-off have been fudged. Those savings, grossly overestimated as they are, are even more questionable now that GFL Environmental, the hauler that came out of nowhere to win the garbage contract, has effectively monopolized pickup over half the city, just like that. That company has bought controlling shares of Turtle Island Recycling, the outfit that had the contract for private pickup in Etobicoke.

Transit shitty

There’s a conundrum for ford on the transit file, too. Transit City may be finished, but the question has never been put to a vote of council. And the memo of understanding between Ford and the province says it must be in order for Ford’s deal with the Libs to bury the Eglinton Crosstown to take legal effect. A move is afoot to revive the Sheppard LRT part now that Ford’s Sheppard subway plans are seemingly toast. The hoped-for private billions are nowhere to be found.

The mayor, though, seems convinced the province will bail him out on Sheppard. He notes the feds have come to the table with $383 mil for the project. But the last thing the province wants is to make Ford look good.

The kicker in that mess is that taxpayers are on the hook for the $65 million it cost to bury Transit City when the mayor declared that plan dead. Ford insists that figure is “completely fictitious.”

Actually, the mayor may be right about that one. In fact, the bill to bury Transit City could end up being as high as $130 million, according to another estimate.

Mushy is as mushy does

The Ford Nation notion isn’t completely defunct. Those in the mushy middlehave shown little inclination to balk at the austerity agenda despite heat from the Libs at Queen’s Park. I didn’t notice many council centrists at recent budget deliberations, for example. And no one among them is a possible mayoral challenger to Ford, so forget seeing a clear break from those who occupy council’s middle. The mushies are happy being mushy, and taking whatever scraps Ford tosses their way.

Right takes flight

As counterintuitive as it may seem, it’s his allies on the right that Ford needs to worry about most. If there’s to be a challenger to the mayor in 2014, it will most likely come from the right. (My guess: Karen Stintz).

Some among the mayor’s coterie have, if not abandoned ship entirely (the departure of Ford press secretary Adrienne Batra was a defining moment) are showing signs of outgrowing the mayor. There’s tremendous anxiety over the host of cuts proposed in the 2012 budget.

Ford’s base in Scarborough is looking shaky given the goings-on not only around the botched Sheppard subway plan, but also the whole host of services on the chopping block in challenged parts of that burb.

The push-back is coming from the city bureaucracy, too. Not all departments heeded the mayor’s call to cut 10 per cent from the bottom line.

Sell-off narrative

For an administration that’s lacked imagination when it comes to finessing the city’s finances, there seems no lack of creativity when it comes to saving face. Having failed to find the sacred river of gravy he claimed was flowing through City Hall – at one point in the campaign, Ford claimed $3 billion could be found “easily” in bureaucratic fat – the narrative is now about selling off city assets and surplus land to make the books (read Ford) look good.

We’ve seen this script before from conservative governments: borrowing from here, cutting from there to deliver insignificant tax cuts, and it’s only left us poorer and more in debt.

If hubris doesn’t get him...

Call it a coincidence or call me one twisted mutha. But am I the only one led by the mayor’s year-end gabfests with local media to see a weird synchronicity between Rob Ford and the late Korean dictator Kim Jong-il?

I’ve often wondered about Ford’s appreciation for hand-painted urns, earthenware being big in North Korea. But not to stray too far from the point.

Kim, we’re told, was a student of the cinematic arts. Our not-so-humble leader is a drama queen, too. He’s taken to the stage twice in cameos this year.

But Ford has saved his best acting for his real-life role as chief magistrate, never letting reality interfere with his fantastical thinking.

The mayor unleashed a few whoppers in those year-end one-on-ones with reporters last week. Pretty soon he’ll be selling videos, like Don Cherry’s greatest hits.

His office still refuses to make his itinerary public, unable or unwilling to account for his long absences from City Hall while claiming the mayor is out doing what he’s always done: helping constituents.

Ford says his obligation is to the public, not the media. Lately, he’s taken to suggesting that his disappearances are in preparation for another run in 2014. But how long can he continue his risky political behaviour?

When you’re Rob Fucking Ford 

The Ford myth has already begun to give way. Can those who voted for him honestly say they’re better off now than before he came to power? From service cuts to layoffs of city workers to higher user fees for city services, every one of Ford’s election promises has been broken. Those on which he’s delivered have only dug us deeper into a financial hole.

The mind-numbing “Stay the course” spiel is meant to project the image of a mayor in charge. Nothing could be further from the truth. Ford has been an unmitigated disaster. Only he and his dwindling supporters seem incapable of seeing that.

Under his watch, City Hall is a tinpot dictatorship in the grip of a tough guy with a cult-like following backed (or is that created?) by a propaganda machine churning out one big lie after another. That reality is slowly catching up with him. Regrets? In 2012, Ford may have a few.

Survival guide

• Read the Sun and listen to talk radio. That’s right. The a-holes from the 905 who call in pretending to understand Toronto will drive you ape shit, but the insight into the Ford mindset is invaluable. You have to be crazy to understand Ghadafi. Same applies for Ford. Think beer and chicken wings.

• If you must write letters of complaint, send emails or make phone calls, forget about the mayor. He’s a stubborn son of a gun. Hit members of his executive instead. Their vote counts just as much as Ford’s. And there are a few weak links in that chain of command.

• Make sure to pack a camera wherever you go. You never know when you might bump into the mayor on one of those mysterious late-night sojourns of his. And you’ll want the photographic evidence in the event you happen to catch him in a compromising position. It’s going to take some kind of scandal to chip away at that cult of personality.

• Last but not least... We could all learn from Robo’s uncanny ability to tune out the real world. I suggest turning down the volume on Ford. Not ignoring him completely – he’s too dangerous for that. Our collective mental health, though, could benefit from losing our obsession with all things Ford. Plus, not being the centre of attention is bound to drive him nuts, narcissist that he is.

Original Article
Source: NOW