After a day of unexpected drama at the UN climate change talks, a historic deal on greenhouse gases looked tantalisingly within reach on Thursday night – but with a handful of major economies holding out, the end result could still be discord and the death of the Kyoto protocol.One hundred and twenty countries, led by Brazil, Japan, Canada and many African nations, threw their weight behind a proposal from the European Union for a roadmap towards a new global agreement on climate change. Under the plan all the world's major emitters – both developed and developing countries – would negotiate a new pact in 2015 to cut emissions substantially from 2020.
The US also appeared to soften its approach, with its negotiating chief mentioning the "roadmap" twice with approval without actually signing up to it. His apparent support was tempered by caveats that could render it toothless, however.
All eyes are now on China, the world's biggest emitter, which has not decided its position on the EU roadmap, and according to some insiders has been giving conflicting signals. "China desperately does not want to be seen as the villain here, the wrecker of agreement," said a diplomat from a developed nation. "But they also have serious problems [with the roadmap]."
Of the major developing countries, only India spoke out strongly against the roadmap. The environment minister, Jayanthi Natarajan, said: "We have strained every nerve and met many parties. But I cannot see any convergence or any light at the end of the tunnel."
The only existing international treaty stipulating emissions cuts is the 1997 Kyoto protocol, the first commitment period of which expires next year. Between 2012 and 2020 countries are relying on a series of national emissions targets that were agreed at Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancún last year, but these do not have the same legal force as Kyoto.
For many countries that system of voluntary national pledges does not provide a guarantee – they fear that without an international framework governments will be prone to renege on their commitments.
The issue has dogged the talks for two decades. For some major developing countries, such as China, any international agreement should impose binding obligations on rich countries, but poorer ones should be exempt. For the US, it will be impossible to accept any deal unless it is equally legally binding – or non-binding – on all major emitters.
The US left the door open yesterday. Todd Stern, US envoy for climate change, said: "If we get the kind of roadmap that countries have called for – the EU has called for, that the US supports – for preparing for and negotiating a future regime, whether it ends up being legally binding or not, we don't know yet, but we are strongly committed to a promptly starting process to move forward on that."
But the US rejected another key aspect of the roadmap – a timeline for negotiations, with an agreement to be signed in 2015. The US wants no dates to be fixed.
These are make-or-break issues. Without a clear timetable and the end result of a legal treaty, there is a fear that any deal at Durban would amount only to a commitment to keep talking – and that would be worthless, according to EU insiders. Martin Lidegaard, Danish climate minister, said: "That is not good enough for the EU. We are heading back to the negotiations."
Intense diplomatic pressure is now being brought to get Beijing to agree a form of words by which it could agree to be legally bound in future. Although Xie Zhenhua, the Chinese head of delegation, told journalists this week that China was willing to sign up to "a legal document", other countries have said this commitment was not made in the negotiating chamber. China was publicly silent on the issue on Thursday.
Among developed countries, Japan has said it also wants negotiations on a new treaty to begin, though it has not set a firm timeline, and Australia said it would sign up if major emitters did. Canada unexpectedly supported most of the roadmap – a surprise because it has threatened to withdraw completely from the Kyoto protocol and is at loggerheads with the EU over tar sands.
In return for the roadmap, the EU is offering to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond the current commitment period, which ends in 2012. It is the only major rich country bloc to do so. If there is no roadmap, and the EU withdraws its support, the Kyoto protocol would effectively be dead.
Origin
Source: Guardian
No comments:
Post a Comment