That the budget will be the centrepiece of the upcoming sitting of Parliament is par for the course. Budgets frame government agendas and this one is expected to frame the rest of the Conservative mandate. But it will be debated long and hard for a variety of other reasons.
It will be the first restraint budget presented to Parliament since the Liberals wrestled the deficit to the ground in the late 1990s.
It comes on the heels of an uncommonly long federal spending spree — one extended by the global economic crisis.
This is the first federal budget in eight years and the first Conservative budget in six years that will not have been crafted with a mind to ensure the survival of a minority government.
Over that period, political necessity commanded the production of good news budgets.
The budget that is expected to come down in a few weeks is expected to be meatier — and ultimately harder to swallow than those produced by the last three minority governments.
A governance rule of thumb is that if change (and pain) are to be on the agenda, they should be dealt with earlier rather than later in a mandate. There have been plenty of signals that the budget will include a measure of both, including on pensions — a volatile issue that has a demonstrated potential to burn governments who mishandle it.
There is no doubt the Conservatives, who now control both houses of Parliament, will secure the required legislative approval for the 2012 budget. That battle is over before it begins.
But that only means the fight will take place on the larger stage of public opinion.
For the flip side of majority rule is that the government gets no opposition cover for its budget.
For the first time in years, the opposition parties are under no constraint to hold their fire for fear of an unwanted election.
That war of words will almost certainly be exacerbated by the new dynamics in the Commons.
The last time a federal government entered a cycle of restraint, it could count on the tacit support of its main federalist opposition.
In the drive to eliminate the deficit, the Reform Party acted as an accelerant rather than a retardant.
That dynamic gave the Chrétien-Martin fiscal agenda a lot of impetus.
By comparison, there is little common ground on the economy between the New Democrats and the ruling Conservatives. They are pulling in opposite directions.
For the leaderless official Opposition, the budget will present major challenges. Having never been in power, the federal NDP still needs to convince many voters that it has the credentials to run a government.
The NDP might rue the day when it decided to extend its leadership campaign until late March — a decision that probably means the issue will be unresolved in time for the budget.
The government’s restraint agenda is expected to hit the public service hard. Its unions make up a key constituency of the NDP. Interim leader Nycole Turmel once led one of those unions.
The Conservatives will be looking to turn the tables on the rookie official Opposition by casting it as a mouthpiece for big labour.
At the same time, the Liberals are itching to put an uneasy period of forced cooperation with the government on the economy behind them.
They will also seek to distinguish themselves from the NDP. If the fall session is any indication, they can be expected to hit the ground running in a quest to reclaim the middle of the road.
The 2012 budget will not trigger an election but it stands to have a defining impact on the still-in-progress branding of Canada’s national parties.
Original Article
Source: Star
Author: Chantal Hébert
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