The report, “State of the Taliban,” presents a damning assessment of the war, now entering its 11th year. Based on 27,000 interrogations of some 4,000 captured Taliban fighters, the report describes them as highly motivated, possessed of strong morale, and confident they will regain control of Afghanistan once western forces leave.
NATO officials have downplayed the report’s significance, arguing that the Taliban is much weaker after losing hundreds of fighters and much territory in the past year.
On Wednesday, MacKay echoed that view, arguing that the legitimacy of its assessment is doubtful given that it relies on interviews with captured fighters with a particular point of view to promote.
“We are continuing to see fighters being taken off the battlefield,” said MacKay. “Their followers, similarly, are diminishing. Their leadership is in disarray. And the support for the Taliban in Afghanistan continues to fall.”
According to National Defence figures, 158 Canadian soldiers were killed in Afghanistan and more than 2,000 were wounded or suffered “non-battle injuries” during the 10-year combat mission. Canada’s combat mission has ended, but 950 Canadian military trainers remain in Kabul and at two other sites in central Afghanistan until 2014.
The NATO report, seen by The Times of London and the BBC, raises the discomfiting question as to whether that sacrifice will have been in vain, or if more sacrifice is needed.
“In some ways (the report) gels with what we’ve seen in observing the situation on the ground,” said Mark Sedra, a research scholar at the University of Waterloo with expertise on Afghanistan. He noted that its conclusions are in line with what many observers have seen over the years. “We really don’t have many indications, despite what some major NATO leaders have said, that the Taliban is deteriorating or in decline as a movement.”
Indeed, the Times quoted the document, prepared by American military officers, as saying the Taliban’s “strength, motivation, funding and tactical proficiency remains intact” despite President Barack Obama’s troop surge in 2011. “Many Afghans are already bracing themselves for an eventual return of the Taliban.”
According to the report, members of Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s own government are increasingly interested in co-operating with, or even joining their opponents. It also disclosed growing numbers of reports of “outright co-ordination, equipment transfers, intelligence sharing or occasionally even the incorporation of Afghan security forces in Taliban operations.”
As well, Afghan soldiers are selling their weapons and vehicles to the Taliban, sharing intelligence with them and signing covert ceasefires as they prepare for NATO forces to leave. “The vehicles and weapons were once only acquired on the battlefield. They are now regularly sold or donated by the Afghan security forces.”
Equally disturbing, despite billions of dollars spent by Western governments on training and equipping Afghanistan’s security forces, they are ceding territory without a fight or, in some cases, joining forces with the insurgents. “The Taliban are absolutely confident in their ability to subdue Afghan security forces” once NATO withdraws, said the report.
Not surprisingly, NATO officials reject this judgment. “The Taliban have suffered tremendous setbacks on the battlefield in the last year,” NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said ahead of a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels. “And we know that they’ve lost a lot of ground and they’ve lost a lot of leaders.” Support for the Taliban is “at an all-time low” among Afghans, and that Afghan security forces are “getting stronger and more capable every day.”
Officials at NATO headquarters in Kabul insisted that while the report may provide a sampling of the opinions and hopes of Taliban fighters, it should not be regarded as an assessment of the campaign. “The classified document in question is a compilation of Taliban detainee opinions,” said Lt.-Col. Jimmie Cummings, a spokesman for NATO’s International Security Assistance Force. “It’s not an analysis, nor is it meant to be considered an analysis.”
William Patey, the British Ambassador to Kabul, wrote on his Twitter feed that “if elements of the Taliban think that in 2015 they can take control of Afghanistan they will be in for a shock.”
Perhaps so, but the NATO report also pointed out that while Taliban prisoners were weary of war, their morale remained high. “Detainees have become more confident not only in their potential to win, but the virtue of their cause.”
The same probably cannot be said about the Afghan forces. The same day the NATO report became public, an Afghan soldier shot and killed a U.S. Marine. It was the fourth such instance in just over a month of a member of the Afghan police or army firing on Western allies.
There is also evidence that Afghans are growing weary of the Karzai government. “Afghan civilians frequently prefer Taliban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of government corruption,” the BBC quoted the report as saying.
That jibes with the Canadian government’s most recent quarterly report on Afghanistan, which noted that in June 2008 the population in four districts in Kandahar province gave the Afghan army an approval rating of 85 per cent or more. However, as of June 30, 2011, it could not boast such a high approval rating in any of the six districts.
The situation is not helped by the Pakistani government being “intimately involved” with the Taliban, according to the NATO report. Pakistan’s ISI intelligence agency is “thoroughly aware of Taliban activities and the whereabouts of all senior Taliban personnel.”
Pakistan’s foreign minister immediately denied those claims during a visit Wednesday to Kabul. “Pakistan has no hidden agenda in Afghanistan,” said Hina Rabbani Khar, rejecting claims of official Pakistani aid to the Taliban as “old wine in an even older bottle.”
Amid these claims and counter claims, a Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, denied the organization has agreed to engage in talks with the Karzai government. Nor, he said, had any peace negotiation process been agreed upon with the international community, “particularly the Americans.”
Taliban officials announced in January that they intended to open an office in the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar, where they could talk directly to the U.S. and sidestep the Karzai government. Contacts between Taliban representatives and U.S. officials have reportedly taken place to discuss confidence-building measures as a prelude to any formal negotiations.
However, Taliban negotiators said Wednesday they had not “reached the negotiation phase with the U.S. and its allies. Before there are negotiations there should be a trust-building phase, which has not begun yet.”
Canadian officials, meanwhile, expressed doubts of their own about the Taliban’s desire to negotiate a peace settlement. A spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said the government “remains deeply skeptical” of the Taliban’s motives in establishing the Qatar office.
“The Taliban did not indicate that they are ready to renounce violence, respect the Afghan constitution, including women’s rights, and sever ties with al-Qaeda or other terrorist organizations,” spokesman Rick Roth said in an email.
The fallout from the NATO report remains open to question. It may well encourage the Taliban to be even more intransigent, thinking that time is on their side. On the other hand, the presence of some western troops beyond 2014, including elite forces, would make it difficult for the Taliban to reassert control over the country.
Original Article
Source: ottawa citizen
Author: Robert Sibley
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