The main act of the 2012 federal-provincial budget season is about to get under way and it could be one for the books.
Quebec will open it on Tuesday with what could be the last budget of the Jean Charest era.
That will be followed a week later by what is expected to be the most austere Liberal budget in modern Ontario history.
On March 29 Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will bring the exercise to a close with the first majority Conservative budget in two decades.
What the three budgets have in common is that they have been drafted with an eye to the red ink that has washed over government finances over the economic crisis.
They have also all been heralded as watershed events for their political authors.
But this is where the similarities end.
Politically the mindset that has presided over the drafting of the federal, Ontario and Quebec budgets could not be more different.
At this juncture, the defining budget of the Harper era is a free-spending 2010 document that the Liberals could easily have called their own. It was designed to address two pressing issues: a global economic downturn and the parliamentary survival of the minority Conservatives, and not necessarily in that order.
The March 29 budget is expected to be made of a more conservative material.
If Harper and his inner circle have bought the strategic advice that it is best to deal with the heavy lifting at the top end of a majority mandate — and there is reason to believe that they have — then it may contain more than the usual share of controversial cuts
In their approach to fiscal austerity, the Harper Conservatives have two advantages on Premier Dalton McGuinty: a governing majority and an ideological predisposition to smaller government.
By comparison to its federal counterpart, the Ontario budget has to be designed in such a way as to earn the support — active or passive — of one of the two opposition parties. But whatever route McGuinty chooses, it will be impossible to arrive at the destination without inflicting pain on a variety of Liberal-friendly constituencies.
What is also certain is that the combination of the two budgets — federal and provincial — will eventually result in lesser public services for Ontarians. That’s a situation that the Harper government will be under intense political pressure to address in the months and years to come but hard-pressed to alleviate without causing pain elsewhere.
That elsewhere could be Quebec, where all is already far from well for the province’s main federalist party.
Facing an election within the next year and lagging in the polls, Charest desperately needs to kick-start the fortunes of his third-term government. In stark political terms, his predicament is more comparable to that of British Columbia and Alberta premiers Christy Clark and Alison Redford than to McGuinty’s.
With elections on the horizon, B.C. and Alberta took different budget routes a few weeks ago.
The first tried to tackle a challenge on the right by bringing down a fiscally conservative budget; the second looked to the progressive middle to shore up a healthy Conservative lead.
Politically, the result was not very different. The NDP continues to enjoy a strong lead on the ruling Liberals in B.C. while Redford’s Conservatives have seen their support soften in the weeks since the budget.
Tuesday’s Quebec budget may actually matter less than two separate but related federal events.
The first quarter of 2012 has brought about a distinct improvement in sovereignist fortunes.
At the federal level, the Bloc Québécois has been making a steady comeback at the expense of the New Democrats — a movement that could be accelerated or reversed by the weekend’s NDP leadership outcome.
At the provincial level, a poll last week placed the Parti Québécois in majority territory. The disconnect between Quebec and the Harper government has been a major factor in both recoveries.
Given that, the budget that will be brought down in Parliament on March 29 may have more impact on Quebec’s electoral outlook than the one about to be unveiled in the National Assembly.
Original Article
Source: Star
Author: Chantal Hébert
Quebec will open it on Tuesday with what could be the last budget of the Jean Charest era.
That will be followed a week later by what is expected to be the most austere Liberal budget in modern Ontario history.
On March 29 Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will bring the exercise to a close with the first majority Conservative budget in two decades.
What the three budgets have in common is that they have been drafted with an eye to the red ink that has washed over government finances over the economic crisis.
They have also all been heralded as watershed events for their political authors.
But this is where the similarities end.
Politically the mindset that has presided over the drafting of the federal, Ontario and Quebec budgets could not be more different.
At this juncture, the defining budget of the Harper era is a free-spending 2010 document that the Liberals could easily have called their own. It was designed to address two pressing issues: a global economic downturn and the parliamentary survival of the minority Conservatives, and not necessarily in that order.
The March 29 budget is expected to be made of a more conservative material.
If Harper and his inner circle have bought the strategic advice that it is best to deal with the heavy lifting at the top end of a majority mandate — and there is reason to believe that they have — then it may contain more than the usual share of controversial cuts
In their approach to fiscal austerity, the Harper Conservatives have two advantages on Premier Dalton McGuinty: a governing majority and an ideological predisposition to smaller government.
By comparison to its federal counterpart, the Ontario budget has to be designed in such a way as to earn the support — active or passive — of one of the two opposition parties. But whatever route McGuinty chooses, it will be impossible to arrive at the destination without inflicting pain on a variety of Liberal-friendly constituencies.
What is also certain is that the combination of the two budgets — federal and provincial — will eventually result in lesser public services for Ontarians. That’s a situation that the Harper government will be under intense political pressure to address in the months and years to come but hard-pressed to alleviate without causing pain elsewhere.
That elsewhere could be Quebec, where all is already far from well for the province’s main federalist party.
Facing an election within the next year and lagging in the polls, Charest desperately needs to kick-start the fortunes of his third-term government. In stark political terms, his predicament is more comparable to that of British Columbia and Alberta premiers Christy Clark and Alison Redford than to McGuinty’s.
With elections on the horizon, B.C. and Alberta took different budget routes a few weeks ago.
The first tried to tackle a challenge on the right by bringing down a fiscally conservative budget; the second looked to the progressive middle to shore up a healthy Conservative lead.
Politically, the result was not very different. The NDP continues to enjoy a strong lead on the ruling Liberals in B.C. while Redford’s Conservatives have seen their support soften in the weeks since the budget.
Tuesday’s Quebec budget may actually matter less than two separate but related federal events.
The first quarter of 2012 has brought about a distinct improvement in sovereignist fortunes.
At the federal level, the Bloc Québécois has been making a steady comeback at the expense of the New Democrats — a movement that could be accelerated or reversed by the weekend’s NDP leadership outcome.
At the provincial level, a poll last week placed the Parti Québécois in majority territory. The disconnect between Quebec and the Harper government has been a major factor in both recoveries.
Given that, the budget that will be brought down in Parliament on March 29 may have more impact on Quebec’s electoral outlook than the one about to be unveiled in the National Assembly.
Original Article
Source: Star
Author: Chantal Hébert
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