Frank Graves poll: So where are we? In the midst of scandal, a measure of sway

A measure of opinion during a swirl of controversy can reveal much about a government’s moral authority. So with robocalls, Vikileaks and allegations from all sides about orchestrated smear campaigns, there may be no time like the present to check in on vote intention.

Before we get to the scandal, let’s consider where we’re at:

• Nearly a year after the election, Stephen Harper’s majority government is well short of its May 2 position and now tied within the margin of error of the leaderless and supposedly floundering NDP. Note that CPC support may well be understated since this poll covers 100 per cent of eligible voters — not just the 60 per cent who will actually show up to vote. Even still, with a two-point lead, it’s highly unlikely the CPC would retain its majority in the remote and hypothetical world of another election. Instead, it would be relegated to opposition with an NDP-led coalition.
• The third-place Liberals have improved slightly since their disastrous performance last May.
• The Greens are also up, though largely with younger voters who are less likely to vote.
• The rebirth of the near-dead Bloc Québécois is significant.

The CPC is thriving in Alberta. We now see a huge divide between Alberta on high end of the favorability spectrum and Quebec on the low end. While the Conservatives continue to do well with seniors and males, older Canadians are coming around to the Liberals. The second-place NDP are doing quite well within the margin of error of the CPC. The party’s slide in Quebec with the resurgent Bloc is offset by its performance in British Columbia where it leads.

Next we considered how Canadians feel about the direction the country and its government are heading. Mirroring rising economic anxieties, confidence here continues to fall and is now on par with the historical low of October 2010.

Even more disconcerting for the government is the 15-point net deficit that has opened on disapproval of its direction — a shift that is pronounced in Quebec and among younger, more educated Canada. Albertans and foreign-born Canadians, however, are very happy.

Finally — let’s look at Bill C-30. Even in Conservative Canada, the current legislation has few fans. Fifteen per cent of Canadians support passing the legislation in its current form. And while the plurality are open to “significant changes” to the bill, those who would rather kill the bill outright outnumber those who support the current version by a wide margin. Opposition is particularly strong among NDP and Green supporters, but even Conservative supporters would prefer the bill be amended. Men and university graduates strongly oppose it. It’s worth noting that those under the age of 25 are somewhat more amenable than others to having their internet activities monitored.

With the frenzy over robo-calls overtaking the frenzy over Bill C-30, it remains to be seen how it will all play with a public that often suffers from collective ADHD.

Given the government’s weakened position and poor standing on basic directional indicators, it risks descending into areas that call its legitimacy into question. While Harper’s Conservatives retain their moral authority, our poll suggests they’d be wise to tread carefully since they do not have oodles of residual political capital at their disposal.

Original Article
Source: ipolitics
Author: Frank Graves