The Forum Research survey over this past Monday and Tuesday found Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) has jumped out of the starting gate to take a lead across the country against his main competition in the Commons opposition, interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.), when it comes to trust, sincerity and preference as best choice for prime minister.
New Democrat MPs said the findings suggest critics who have predicted Quebec support for the NDP might collapse following the death last August of former leader Jack Layton were wrong.
“What I think the voters of Quebec are saying, what I get from the last election is, if anything is going to happen, it’s going to happen in Quebec,” New Brunswick NDP MP Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst, N.B.), who supported former NDP president Brian Topp for the party’s leadership, told The Hill Times. “They’ve turned the page now, and they’re saying, ‘Federally now, we want to be part of what’s happening in Ottawa. We want to make change, and if we want to get rid of Stephen Harper we have to get on with a federal party to do it.”
Forum Research pollster Lorne Bozinoff, whose firm polled voter opinion for The Hill Times as part of a wider monthly survey, said the results suggest Mr. Mulcair has had a “significant impact on the political scene” over the course of the leadership and may have already overshadowed Mr. Rae.
Nationally, the survey found Mr. Mulcair effectively tied with Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) when voters were asked which of the three national party leaders they found to be the most trustworthy. Twenty eight per cent of respondents favoured Mr. Mulcair and 29 per cent favoured Mr. Harper. Mr. Rae was selected as most trustworthy by 24 per cent of the respondents, with nearly 20 per cent of those who responded so soon after the NDP leadership convention saying they did not know who they trusted the most.
In Quebec, 48 per cent said they found Mr. Mulcair to be the most trustworthy of the three leaders, compared to 15 per cent for Mr. Harper and 17 per cent for Mr. Rae, again with one-fifth of the respondents replying that they did not know. The opinion splits were almost identical when voters were asked to select the leader they considered most sincere.
Mr. Harper had a moderate lead nationally when voters were asked which of the three leaders they thought would make the best prime minister. Thirty three per cent of respondents nationally favoured Mr. Harper as best choice for prime minister, with Mr. Mulcair at 27 per cent and Mr. Rae at 22 per cent. Seventeen per cent of the respondents said they did not know who they preferred.
In Quebec, where the margin of error was slightly higher because the sample of voter opinion was smaller, 48 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr. Mulcair as prime minister, compared to 17 per cent for Mr. Harper, 18 per cent for Mr. Rae and 17 per cent with no opinion.
After opinion had divided during the leadership race over whether Bloc Québécois voters would be open to Mr. Mulcair—who opposed the provincial version of the Bloc, the Parti Québécois, as a Liberal in Quebec’s National Assembly—52 per cent of Bloc Québécois supporters said they thought Mr. Mulcair was the best choice for prime minister.
Montreal Liberal MP Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.), whose electoral district is adjacent to Mr. Mulcair’s and shares a prominent neighbourhood with it, said the results suggest Mr. Mulcair has successfully changed his political image after joining the federal NDP to contest and first win his seat in a 2007 byelection.
“I think he has managed to rebrand himself sufficiently,” Mr. Trudeau told The Hill Times. “Image matters in politics, and he has been chosen by the NDP and therefore he must be a real NDPer. After a good convention like that you would expect to have a bump in attention and support. For me, we’ve got a long game to play. There are still three years before the election and we still have to go through a leadership convention as well.”
Mr. Trudeau also played down the survey’s suggestion Mr. Mulcair may so soon be eclipsing Mr. Rae.
“He’s exciting and new to a certain extent and people are so dissatisfied with Mr. Harper that they’re looking for someone strong to go against him, and someone new to go against him,” Mr. Trudeau said. “We’ve been dominating over the past year in the House because of Bob’s excellence. Now there’s a new guy to support and that’s what the polls show.”
But NDP MP Don Davies (Vancouver Kingsway, B.C.), who supported Mr. Mulcair in the leadership race, said the findings show Quebecers know Mr. Mulcair’s reputation as a political fighter, and his accomplishments in government.
“It’s a sign that Quebecers, who know Tom Mulcair the best, and Canadians who increasingly are getting to know him, are getting to see what a skilled politician he is,” Mr. Davies said. “Tom is a man who combines integrity and courage, experience, and common sense in a very powerful package. That’s not just a rhetorical thing, he’s got a long track record in politics that shows it.”
The survey found Mr. Mulcair more popular than the other two leaders among young voters and middle income voters. His support was also stronger in the Prairie provinces and the Atlantic, but he placed behind Mr. Rae and Mr. Harper in Ontario as preference for best prime minister. Forty per cent of respondents in Ontario chose Mr. Harper as the best prime minister, followed by Mr. Rae at 28 per cent and Mr. Mulcair at 16 per cent.
The survey of 1,638 randomly selected voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: Tim Naumetz
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