The Environics poll had the Conservatives and NDP tied on 30%, with the Liberals back on 20% support. In the by-election, Liberal Grant Gordon saw his party’s share of the vote rise by 11%, even though he lost to New Democrat Craig Scott.
The common trait in both these stories is the relative decline of the Conservatives. Most polls have been showing the Tories slipping since the party won nearly 40% of the vote in last May’s election but the Environics survey suggests they are actually in danger of relinquishing first place. In the Danforth by-election, Conservative support tumbled 9% to just 5%.
These are worrying numbers for the Harper government. Some of the slide can be blamed on the robocall saga and fears about the upcoming budget. But there is a deeper malaise. Too many middle-class Canadians, particularly in Eastern Canada, feel they are under siege.
A new study released by the Vanier Institute for the Family Thursday will make grim reading for the Tories. Income security remains “an elusive dream” for many, the authors concluded – and the situation is getting worse. Debt loads remain high – averaging $103,000 per family. There are 1.7 million families with a debt servicing ratio of 40% or more, making them vulnerable to rising interest rates. At the same time, family saving rates are dwindling – down to 4% of disposable income from 13% in 1990.
The roll call of financial distress goes on – increases in hourly earnings did not keep pace with inflation, which rose 20% between 2002 and 2011.
If you’ve seen your home heating oil bill jump 140%, you likely don’t feel particularly placated to learn that in Greece they can’t afford to buy the previous day’s newspaper. No wonder the Tories are reminding Canadians of Bob Rae’s record as Ontario Premier – their focus groups were likely showing that even Mr. Rae’s wobbly fiscal record is starting to look alluring.
The prospect of the Conservatives losing ground on the economy creates all kinds of possibilities for the opposition leader who can persuade Canadians he or she has the solution to the stagnation gripping their household finances.
Job number one for whoever becomes the next NDP leader will be to consolidate the party’s position in Quebec. The most recent CROP poll suggested the Bloc Québécois is resurgent and is now running neck-and-neck with the New Democrats.
But, if as seems inevitable, the party is set to lose a large number of seats in Quebec (projections based on the CROP poll suggest nearly 40), it is going to have to make up that shortfall among Ontario’s stressed suburban voters. This is hardly fertile terrain for New Democrats and it is tough to see any of the group of leadership candidates appealing in the ‘burbs. Yet, if they are to retain Official Opposition status, far less win the next election, they must push out of their downtown fastnesses.
The Liberals, on the other hand, have won in the suburbs before. The party is set to push a “two Canadas” message that highlights the Conservative government’s efforts are focused on helping the booming West at the expense of the beleaguered East. That message was further bolstered Thursday by new numbers from the Quebec government that show the government’s plan to re-structure federal health transfers on a strictly per capita basis will see Alberta receive $1-billion more than it would have done under the previous formula, while Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia will all receive hundreds of millions of dollars less.
The Danforth by-election suggests the Liberals have bottomed-out in Ontario. The candidate, Grant Gordon, hit the right notes in his advertising: We’re Listening, We’re Changing, We Want You Back.
Whether that message can be sold with Mr. Rae at the helm remains to be seen. It appears to be business as usual in the Liberal Party – brokerage politics designed to win and wield power. Mr. Rae said he wouldn’t seek the leadership permanently when he assumed the interim role but he is now using the powers of incumbency to do exactly that, squeezing out potential opponents. (On Thursday, there were reports some senior Liberals are in fact looking to move up the convention date to allow him an earlier ascension.)
Still, familiarity always breeds contempt for governments. And nothing makes the opposition look more attractive than austerity fatigue – the political equivalent of looking through the bottom of a beer glass during last orders. Sooner or later, voters will just get tired of seeing the Tories around.
Original Article
Source: national post
Author: John Ivison
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