In an unpublished discussion paper, Prof. Anke Kessler estimates that a decline in voter turnout due to the so-called robocalls would be between 1,000 and 2,500 votes per average riding, or about three percentage points.
Kessler said this would have been enough to make a difference to election results in five ridings alleged to have been hit with misleading robocalls because fewer than 2,500 votes were needed to ensure a Liberal or NDP victory in these contested ridings.
"I'm fairly confident there is a causal effect from reported robocalls onto voter turnout," Kessler told Postmedia News.
Polling stations with many NDP and Liberal votes in the previous election experienced a decline in voter turnout, she said. This was true in "robocalled ridings or non-robocalled ridings."
What suggests a targeted voter suppression campaign in close ridings, she said, is that voter turnout decline was "harsher" in ridings that were allegedly hit with misleading robocalls.
"One explanation is that robocalls caused it," Kessler said.
Kessler compared voter turnout at polling stations, vote share for each party and ballot results in all Canadian ridings in the 2008 and 2011 federal elections and came up with an average snapshot of potential voter turnout impact related to the so-called misleading "robocalls."
The study found that ridings with alleged robocall misconduct had more non-Conservative voters who stayed home.
The study estimates that non-Conservative polling stations would have had about 5.1 percentage points less in voter turnout compared to Conservative polling stations in an average district.
"Using the fact that the average targeted riding had 83,268 registered voters, this translates into an estimated absolute number of roughly 2,500 (fewer) voters showing up at the polls. This is substantial," Kessler wrote. "Among those districts allegedly affected by robocalls that are on the list I employ, a total of six ridings had winning margins smaller than that."
Yet Kessler noted some limitations in her study: "In no way can (the findings) 'prove' whether misconduct or an illegal act has occurred," she wrote.
Also, she said, the study does not provide "proof of robocalling" because she does not know if a targeted voter suppression campaign had taken place.
"This kind of analysis only applies to averages," not to a specific district, Kessler said.
The study said its findings reflect an "artificial construct of an 'average' riding, i.e., the interpretation of the results necessitates an electoral district with average characteristics (voter turnout, margin of victory, etc.) which does not actually exist."
"For this reason, I wish to emphasize that the analysis and the corresponding results are not suited to bring the outcome in a particular riding into question," Kessler wrote.
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Sheila Dabu Nonato
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