Such is the projection for 2025 if the status quo remains, according to a dramatic new report in which senior leaders from the private and public sectors analyze the demographic, technological, environmental and economic factors that will shape Canadian society in the years to come.
"Our future as a country is really under threat," says Bill Greenhalgh, CEO of the Human Resources Professionals Association, which conducted the joint study with professional services firm Deloitte.
"All the stuff we take for granted today: a good health system; effective education for the next generation; reasonable retirement; welfare for those who need it — just won't exist. At best, we're looking at a very flat forecast, with the possibility things might even get worse."
The 60-page CanadaWorks 2025 report, published Tuesday, draws on insight from 52 world thinkers within the business, academic and government sectors, as well as extensive in-house and secondary research. It was designed to encourage informed public debate about the issues that will help or hinder Canada as the country navigates a historic demographic sea change.
"If you look at Canada today, 60 per cent of the population is working to support the 40 per cent that don't: the elderly and the children. Well, in 20 years, that's going to flip, with 40 per cent working and 60 per cent not," says Greenhalgh. "Our economies and our social systems just weren't built for that. What worked in the past won't work in the future."
But the report notes that a strong, sustainable Canada is altogether feasible, given fundamental changes to education, immigration, human resources, budgeting and infrastructure.
Some of these strategies include making formal adjustments for the aging workforce, such as: flexible work-time arrangements; pension incentives; phased retirement; wellness programs; and self-paced work environments; modernizing education through improved access to technology; investments in teacher performance, and by matching post-secondary course offerings to employment market demand; reforming immigration to more effectively leverage the contributions of new Canadians; and making calculated investments in industry and infrastructure.
"We can't just cost-cut our way to prosperity; there has to be investment in the future," says Greenhalgh, noting that if the recommended steps are taken, Canada could see an average three per cent annual growth in GDP over the next decade, as opposed to the roughly 1.5 per cent forecast in the status-quo scenario.
Jeff Moir, partner in human capital consulting at Deloitte, says it comes down to inventing the future, not merely predicting it.
"We do have a strong hand right now (as a country); we think we need to play it," says Moir. "When we were doing this study, the idea of 'Own the Podium' — from the Vancouver Olympics — really came out. People kept saying we need more of that atmosphere in Canada, where we're seen as a stronger economic powerhouse."
Three Scenarios for Canada in 2025
"The Lost Decade": Failure to make strategic decisions about education, immigration and employment creates a bleak canvas for Canada. The economy regresses in terms of industrial diversity, social tension is heightened due to a lack of cross-cultural integration, the talent shortage forces employers to outsource more work, and the tax-base no longer supports our previous way of life.
"Unsustainable Prosperity": Canada's resources are in global demand, leading to the veneer of prosperity, but tradable sectors don't grow. The education system fails to evolve to meet new labour market conditions, producing smart people with unsellable skills. Immigration challenges, such as credential recognition, remain unsolved.
"The Northern Tiger": The country is set on a new course, with the public and private sectors making bold but attainable changes. Telework drives down real-estate costs and reduces the carbon footprint of commuting. Educational choices now match market demand. Immigration is improved by offshoring prolonged application processes and improving accreditation. New globally competitive sectors, such as green technology, are spawned by the strength of an integrated, technology-savvy and highly-engaged workforce.
Original Article
Source: ottawa citizen
Author: Misty Harris
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