Wading through the gamut of conflicting statements, political spin and daily back-and-forth has muddied the waters to the point where few Canadians can tell truth from fiction. Here’s what you need to know to follow the debate:
What is the F-35?
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is a single-engine, single-seat jet developed and produced by Texas-based defence giant Lockheed Martin. The U.S. Defence Department is overseeing the project and there are nine partner nations, including Canada.
The F-35 is envisioned as a jack-of-all-trades aircraft that will be able to attack ground targets and engage in air-to-air combat. There are three versions, the main difference being how much runway is needed to take off and land. Canada is planning to purchase only the standard variant, which requires a normal-length runway.
Why did Canada become involved?
Jean Chretien’s Liberal government recognized in 1997 that Canada’s CF-18 fighter jets were approaching the end of their lives. By signing on to the U.S.-led project then and agreeing to continue participating in 2002, it ensured Canada would be able to influence the design while making Canadian companies eligible for contracts. Auditor general Michael Ferguson’s report said that “securing industrial benefits for Canadian companies continued to be a driving motivation for participation” in 2002.
What were the implications of those two decisions?
The Chretien government cut a cheque for $10.6 million in 1997. It wrote another for $100 million in 2002 and disbursed $50 million to help Canadian companies involved in the project. Neither decision obligated Canada to purchase any F-35s, but it did allow Canadian companies to bid on contracts.
Then what happened?
Auditor general Michael Ferguson said the key decision was made in late 2006, when the Conservative government approved Canada’s involvement in the third phase. It was then that Canada agreed to contribute up to $551 million to the aircraft’s ongoing development over the next 40 years — whether it purchased any F-35s or not. The government agreed in principle to purchase 80 F-35s.
But the government said it was planning to buy 65 F-35s?
The original idea was to replace Canada’s fleet of 80 CF-18s with an equal number of F-35s. But the Conservative government announced in July 2010 that Canada would purchase 65 F-35s for $9 billion, plus an additional $7 billion for 20 years of maintenance. The military has since said it needs 65 F-35s to do its job. The reason for the change has never been fully explained.
Didn’t the auditor general find that the F-35s would actually cost $25 billion?
Yes. Internal Defence Department estimates from June 2010 that were obtained by the auditor general showed the "full life-cycle cost" of the F-35s over 20 years of service at $25.1 billion. "Full life-cycle costs" include the price of purchasing the aircraft, maintaining it, and all operating expenses such as pilot salaries, fuel, and replacement parts
Where does the $16 billion figure come from?
The government says this is the cost of “acquiring” the F-35s and maintaining them over 20 years. The Defence Department revised this figure down to $14.7 billion in March 2011.
So the full cost of the F-35s will be $25 billion?
No. This figure is for a 20-year period. The F-35 is actually expected to be in use for more than 30 years. The Defence Department has cost estimates for 36 years of use, which it has not made public. In addition, the Department of National Defence’s $25-billion cost estimate does not include a number of Canada-specific modifications that will be required or the 14 replacement aircraft the military believes will be required.
How much will the F-35s actually cost Canadians?
Unknown. Complicating matters is the fact that nobody knows how much one F-35 will cost as the price continues to increase. Until then, everything is a question mark.
So did the government mislead Canadians?
Depends on who you ask. Opposition parties and the parliamentary budget officer were demanding a full accounting of the F-35 in the weeks before the last federal election. In response, the Defence Department floated the $14.7-billion figure to Parliament and Canadians instead of the $25-billion estimate. The Conservative government knew of the $25-billion estimate but did not correct the record.
Since auditor general Michael Ferguson revealed earlier this month that members of the executive — namely ministers and cabinet — knew of the $25-billion estimate, the Conservatives have argued that they did nothing wrong as including operating expenses is not normal procedure.
But it was the government’s failure to produce the full costs of the F-35 in March 2011 that led to the contempt of Parliament ruling that prompted the last election. In addition, former auditor general Sheila Fraser demanded the Defence Department produce “full life-cycle costs” for all future projects after slamming it for its handling of a military helicopter purchase in October 2010.
The government has since promised to provide full life-cycle costs in the future.
What was the Department of National Defence’s role in all of this?
Auditor general Michael Ferguson’s report was hard on the Department of National Defence, finding that they twisted rules, withheld information, downplayed cost overruns and delays, and actively lobbied the government to sign onto the F-35 for years.
Instead of going after the Defence Department, opposition parties have charged that the Conservative government was either negligent by not providing the required oversight, or knew of the problems and kept them from Canadians.
Defence Minister Peter MacKay’s admission that the government knew weeks before the election that the full costs of the F-35 were $25 billion has fuelled allegations of the latter.
Will we find out the true story?
Parliament’s public accounts committee agreed on Thursday to investigate, but Conservative members defeated an opposition motion Thursday that would have compelled senior bureaucrats to testify. They also defeated a motion to compile the witness list in public.
Is Canada on the hook for 65 F-35s?
No. The F-35s are produced in batches and countries can put in orders for each batch. Canada has not officially ordered any F-35s. However, by signing on to the project’s third phase in 2006, the Conservative government did commit Canada to contribute up to $710 million over 40 years to the F-35 program — whether a single jet is bought or not.
How much has Canada spent on the F-35 to date?
As of September 2011, a total of $335 million of the $710 million committed to developing the fighter and supporting Canada’s aerospace industry had been spent. The government has declined to provide a more up-to-date number.
Can Canada choose another jet instead?
Yes. Opposition parties and critics have been calling for an open competition to replace the CF-18s. The government has backed off its original commitment to purchase the F-35 and instead says its budget to replace the CF-18s is fixed at the original $9 billion. While the F-35 is still an option, it says it is exploring all possibilities.
Is the government really looking at alternatives?
Uncertain. The fact it has established an “F-35 Secretariat” to oversee the program going forward has been read as an indication it has no intention of picking another aircraft. It has also resisted holding a competition. It argues that a U.S.-led process held between 1997 and 2001 satisfied that requirement, and that the F-35 is the only aircraft that meets Canada’s requirements.
Is the F-35 the best aircraft available on the market?
That is the pitch that has been made by the Department of National Defence and the Conservative government. The real answer, however, is that nobody knows as it’s still in development.
The F-35’s main selling point is its “stealth” capabilities, meaning enemies have a harder time detecting it. This is considered important as Russia and China are working to develop their own state-of-the-art aircraft. Some have disputed how much “stealthier” the F-35 really is, calling the label an advertising gimmick.
The aircraft has also been plagued with an untold number of problems over the years and a great deal of testing still hasn’t been done. It just completed its first night flight in January and hasn’t come close to starting the real tests: combat. These rigorous trials will determine what the F-35 really can — and can’t — do.
Will the F-35 be ready in time to replace the CF-18s?
They probably will be. But Canada was planning to buy them when they are at peak production, which would mean the lowest costs. The issue is whether peak production is reached in time.
Assuming the kinks get worked out, will the F-35 be the best aircraft for Canada?
If the F-35 turns out to be as stealthy and acrobatic as advertised, Canada could have an air force that will be the envy of most countries for decades. In addition, it will have an easier time of co-operating and co-ordinating in any conflict with the eight other allied countries planning to acquire the aircraft.
All these advantages will be hugely important for any foreign, multinational military mission Canada becomes involved in as well as working with the U.S. to protect North American airspace.
But the fact the F-35 has only one engine is considered by some a major drawback for Canada as the aircraft will likely spend a great deal of time in the Arctic, where two engines are preferred. Experts here remain divided on how significant this perceived drawback is.
What else happens if Canada pulls out or decides not to purchase any F-35s?
It’s not completely clear. If Canada remains in the program but doesn’t buy any F-35s, it could still be on the hook for up to $375 million, which is the remainder of the $710 million originally committed. However, Canadian companies would also be eligible for contracts associated with the program. Whether other partner countries who actually purchase the fighters would complain or otherwise intervene in this situation is unclear.
If Canada does pull out, it may have pay some penalties (exactly how much is unclear) and Canadian companies would not be able to bid on contracts — though some work would almost certainly still filter north from the U.S. In addition, if Canada decides to purchase the F-35s at a later point, it would pay significantly more.
How much does industry stand to benefit?
The potential economic spinoffs have been a driving force in Canada’s involvement in the F-35 program from the beginning. The government says Canadian companies have already won $435 million in contracts associated with the F-35. It has also said Canadian companies could win $12 billion in work.
Unlike almost all other military procurement projects, however, there is no guarantee that Canadian companies will get contracts, and Auditor General Michael Ferguson’s report said the $12-billion estimate is essentially a best-case scenario.
Original Article
Source: ottawa citizen
Author: Lee Berthiaume
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