The referendum, Ireland’s third on Europe in four years, puts it back in the spotlight after it avoided much of the recent heat from the euro-zone’s debt crisis by dutifully implementing its 85 billion euro ($106 billion) EU/IMF bailout.
While the German-led plan for stricter budget rules needs the approval of only 12 of the 17 euro-zone countries to be ratified, an Irish rejection would undermine one of Europe’s key initiatives just as problems mount in Spain and Greece.
The Irish debate has been squarely framed around a clause in the treaty stating that only those who sign up can access future European bailout money.
The government-led “yes” campaign has built its lead by warning of unpaid wages, empty cash machines and a sudden halt to inward investment if the treaty is rejected.
“We need to keep doing the right thing to get out of this mess,” said Louise McGovern, after voting “yes” at a polling station in a middle-class suburb of south Dublin. “It’s not for the Irish people to derail the EU project.”
The “no” camp, spearheaded by the rising Sinn Fein party and a small number of trade unions, say Europe will not dare cut Ireland off if, as is likely, it needs further official funding when its current bailout runs out next year.
It has tapped into anger at four years of austerity and the nagging sense that Ireland is no longer in control of its fate.
“We’ve got people in Europe deciding our future, people that we didn’t elect,” said Patrick Boland, a civil servant, who voted “no” on his way to work. “A ‘no’ vote would show the politicians in Europe that we don’t want to be part of your problem any more,” he said.
Every poll taken since the vote was called in February indicates it is likely to pass by a margin of around three to two, once undecided voters are excluded. This suggests the referendum has not been turned into a vote against the unpopular austerity policies.
However, with up to 20 percent of voters yet to make up their minds, according to some polls, and figures on Wednesday showing unemployment remains at a stubbornly high 14 percent, the government cannot completely discount encountering an angry electorate at the ballot box.
Polls close at 4 p.m. ET and counting begins at 3 a.m. ET on Friday, with results expected by the afternoon.
“What is at stake is the future of the country,” Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, the European Commissioner in charge of research and science and Ireland’s most senior official at the executive, told Reuters.
“It is probably the single most important referendum that we have ever had in the country,” she said.
As has been the case in previous European referendums, the result may rest on how many people turn out to vote.
Ireland has twice rejected European treaties in the past 11 years before reversing course in repeat votes that had a higher turnout. The coldest weather in weeks, with rain forecast all day, may keep some voters at home.
Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael party on Wednesday urged its members to contact friends, work colleagues and family members and ask them to cast their votes in favour of the treaty.
“There was a time when Irish citizens could play games with issues of enormous moment and get away with it. This time has gone,” the Irish Independent, Ireland’s most popular daily newspaper, said in an editorial urging a “yes” vote.
“If we vote no, our international reputation will sink to the Greek level.”
Original Article
Source: the star
Author: Padraic Halpin and Stephen Mangan
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