One oft-repeated phrase these days is that Stephen Harper is changing Canada. While that may be true to a certain degree, what I believe is more reflective of reality is the following: the fact that Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party is in government reflects the fact that Canada has changed.
Indeed, one can safely say that Canada is more conservative — or classically liberal, if you will — today than it was ten years ago. Canadians increasingly view government as being an enabler more so than a doer. Although there may be many reasons for this, there are four that stand out. Two of these reasons explain why Canada has become more conservative during recent years while two project increased conservatism for Canada over the years to come.
The first reason has to do with Canada’s immigrant communities. As these communities experience successive decades in Canada, their economic independence grows. Less reliance on the government often translates into more conservative views on fiscal issues. Consequently, we have seen Canada’s Chinese, Italian, South Asian, Eastern European and Jewish communities all move slowly but surely toward the Conservative Party in recent years.
Although there are other reasons for this — such as the Liberal Party taking these groups for granted as well as the Tories effectively targeting them — the economic factor would appear to be the overarching reason for these groups’ increased conservatism. It should also be noted that Canada’s newer immigrants are coming from more culturally and fiscally conservative parts of the world — unlike, say, Eastern European immigrants who came from parts of the former Soviet Union — and hence are also more inclined to vote Tory.
Second, the Quebec separatist movement has been in decline since the 1995 referendum, with a federalist government holding the reins of power in Quebec City since 2003. One of the principal reasons that the spending of Canada’s federal government increased so dramatically in the 1960s when compared with public expenditure increases in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and other countries was the emergence of a bidding war between Ottawa and Quebec City over the loyalty of Quebeckers. As a consequence, Quebec’s economy is now dependent on the rest of Canada, with the somewhat ironic result being that the bidding war is largely no longer needed.
Moving now to the future: the result of the 2008 recession has been continued economic trouble in the United States and Europe. In this era of global economic interdependence, that means unpredictable (read: slow) growth for Canada over the years to come. Limited revenue requires limited expenditures if we are to avoid chronic deficits. It should be noted that further exploitation of Canada’s oil resources is only a quick fix if it is not coupled with other measures to modernize Canada’s economy.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, is the upcoming demographic shift — caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation — which will drive the cost of many programs and services through the roof. Barring massive increases in taxation (or waves of new immigrants who enter the workforce), it will become necessary to find ways to reduce government spending on things such as health care, welfare and pensions. Failure to do so, once again, will lead to massive debt.
It should be noted that this demographic shift will mean the ratio of available workers to retirees will shrink from today’s 5 to 1 to just 2 to 1 over the next twenty years. In others words, we’ll be experiencing a labour shortage. Spending increases were encouraged when the baby boomers began to enter the economy in order to create artificial jobs for these individuals. As the baby boomers leave the workforce, the opposite effect will take place — high spending will become intolerable.
Canada is becoming more fiscally conservative — both by norm and by necessity — yet this does not mean that liberalism has seen its last day. Indeed, Stephen Harper only began his rise on the federal scene by recognizing that Canada was a liberal country and that in order to take power, he had to move toward the centre. Similarly, Liberals will have to consciously recognize that Canada is becoming more conservative if they are ever to take the reins of power again.
What this suggests is that Liberals should not change their goals or values, but rather their message and means. For example, taking action against climate change will require Liberals to convince Canadians that economic freedom and competition go hand in hand with environmental sustainability. That is to say: revenue derived from a carbon tax policy (or some other green initiative) can be used to reduce personal and corporate income taxes as well as the national debt.
Similarly, persuading people to care once again en masse about justice for aboriginals will require Liberals to frame the issue as one of economic inequality and to explain to Canadians how the latter inhibits economic growth and prosperity.
For Canadians, thinking about the environment and native rights is a luxury in times of economic difficulty. Yet as a society, we cannot afford to ignore these issues. The only way for Liberals to truly address these issues is to get with the times and recognize that, indeed — it’s the economy, stupid.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics
Author: Zach Paikin
Indeed, one can safely say that Canada is more conservative — or classically liberal, if you will — today than it was ten years ago. Canadians increasingly view government as being an enabler more so than a doer. Although there may be many reasons for this, there are four that stand out. Two of these reasons explain why Canada has become more conservative during recent years while two project increased conservatism for Canada over the years to come.
The first reason has to do with Canada’s immigrant communities. As these communities experience successive decades in Canada, their economic independence grows. Less reliance on the government often translates into more conservative views on fiscal issues. Consequently, we have seen Canada’s Chinese, Italian, South Asian, Eastern European and Jewish communities all move slowly but surely toward the Conservative Party in recent years.
Although there are other reasons for this — such as the Liberal Party taking these groups for granted as well as the Tories effectively targeting them — the economic factor would appear to be the overarching reason for these groups’ increased conservatism. It should also be noted that Canada’s newer immigrants are coming from more culturally and fiscally conservative parts of the world — unlike, say, Eastern European immigrants who came from parts of the former Soviet Union — and hence are also more inclined to vote Tory.
Second, the Quebec separatist movement has been in decline since the 1995 referendum, with a federalist government holding the reins of power in Quebec City since 2003. One of the principal reasons that the spending of Canada’s federal government increased so dramatically in the 1960s when compared with public expenditure increases in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and other countries was the emergence of a bidding war between Ottawa and Quebec City over the loyalty of Quebeckers. As a consequence, Quebec’s economy is now dependent on the rest of Canada, with the somewhat ironic result being that the bidding war is largely no longer needed.
Moving now to the future: the result of the 2008 recession has been continued economic trouble in the United States and Europe. In this era of global economic interdependence, that means unpredictable (read: slow) growth for Canada over the years to come. Limited revenue requires limited expenditures if we are to avoid chronic deficits. It should be noted that further exploitation of Canada’s oil resources is only a quick fix if it is not coupled with other measures to modernize Canada’s economy.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, is the upcoming demographic shift — caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation — which will drive the cost of many programs and services through the roof. Barring massive increases in taxation (or waves of new immigrants who enter the workforce), it will become necessary to find ways to reduce government spending on things such as health care, welfare and pensions. Failure to do so, once again, will lead to massive debt.
It should be noted that this demographic shift will mean the ratio of available workers to retirees will shrink from today’s 5 to 1 to just 2 to 1 over the next twenty years. In others words, we’ll be experiencing a labour shortage. Spending increases were encouraged when the baby boomers began to enter the economy in order to create artificial jobs for these individuals. As the baby boomers leave the workforce, the opposite effect will take place — high spending will become intolerable.
Canada is becoming more fiscally conservative — both by norm and by necessity — yet this does not mean that liberalism has seen its last day. Indeed, Stephen Harper only began his rise on the federal scene by recognizing that Canada was a liberal country and that in order to take power, he had to move toward the centre. Similarly, Liberals will have to consciously recognize that Canada is becoming more conservative if they are ever to take the reins of power again.
What this suggests is that Liberals should not change their goals or values, but rather their message and means. For example, taking action against climate change will require Liberals to convince Canadians that economic freedom and competition go hand in hand with environmental sustainability. That is to say: revenue derived from a carbon tax policy (or some other green initiative) can be used to reduce personal and corporate income taxes as well as the national debt.
Similarly, persuading people to care once again en masse about justice for aboriginals will require Liberals to frame the issue as one of economic inequality and to explain to Canadians how the latter inhibits economic growth and prosperity.
For Canadians, thinking about the environment and native rights is a luxury in times of economic difficulty. Yet as a society, we cannot afford to ignore these issues. The only way for Liberals to truly address these issues is to get with the times and recognize that, indeed — it’s the economy, stupid.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics
Author: Zach Paikin
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