He doesn’t care whether you think he’s anti-democratic, environmentally negligent or socially regressive. He’s already written off your vote.
But he does care whether you acknowledge that he’s a good economic manager. That was his key to winning a majority in the last election. It is his best hope of securing another strong mandate in 2015.
No one has seriously challenged his economic competence.
New Democratic Party Leader Thomas Mulcair intends to change that. He thinks Harper’s reputation is overblown and his “action plan” to produce jobs, growth and long-term prosperity is myopic.
Is Harper’s record assailable? Does Mulcair’s line of attack have any chance of working?
Let’s take a dispassionate look at the prime minister’s economic performance and strategy.
On the positive side:
• Harper steered the country through the 2008-2009 recession more rapidly and less painfully than any of his counterparts in the industrial world. The NDP leader will have a hard time disproving that.
• Since the recession, he has reduced the federal deficit by 60 per cent. Barring a double-dip global recession, a plunge in commodity prices or a run of mortgage defaults, he should be close to a balanced budget — or there — by the next election.
• His trade diversification drive — he signed a free trade deal with Colombia, is negotiating a bigger one with the European Union and is seeking membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership — is long overdue.
• His decision to cap the growth of provincial health transfers starting in 2017 is defensible. Someone had to apply the brakes to the relentless expansion of Canada’s health budget.
• And from a strictly financial viewpoint, his plan to overhaul the immigration system, giving preference to young, highly trained, readily employable foreign recruits makes sense.
On the negative side:
• Harper exhorted consumers to spend during the recession. Now he is telling them to reduce their debts, while the Bank of Canada tempts them to borrow with low interest rates. Sending contradictory signals is illogical and ineffective.
• Job growth remains anemic. Before the recession, the unemployment rate was 6.2 per cent. It is now 7.2 per cent. But the number is deceptive; a large percentage of Canadians are working part-time, on contract, casually or in precarious, low-paying jobs.
• Young Canadians — many of whom went into debt to pay for education — are faring worst. Their jobless rate is 13.9 per cent. Their career aspirations are fading.
• Harper’s determination to make Canada an energy superpower poses significant risks. One is the boom-and-bust nature of the commodity market. A second is no one will permit Alberta to build oil pipelines to ship out its unprocessed petroleum. A third is that the market for “dirty oil” will dry up as cleaner sources come on-stream. A fourth — although Harper won’t face it — is that future generations will be saddled with a massive cleanup bill.
• In a similar vein, the prime minister’s unwillingness to slow the growth of inequality will exact an economic price, although probably not on his watch. Every society in which a privileged elite has amassed a vastly disproportionate share of the wealth has lost its economic vitality and gone into a long, slow decline.
• Finally, there are two large liabilities on Ottawa’s books. One is the still-ballooning cost of the F-35 fighter jets the government is committed to purchasing. The other is the still-hidden cost of locking up thousands of non-violent offenders. Both will eventually blow holes in the federal budget.
Bottom line: Harper’s economic flank is not impregnable.
But it will take precision, persistence and more credibility than Mulcair has earned to conduct a successful attack.
He’ll also need luck. Right now, Canadians aren’t questioning Harper’s economic credentials. But three years from now, if there’s still a dearth of jobs and hope, they’ll be sick of austerity and the prime minister who prescribed it.
Original Article
Source: Star
Author: Carol Goar
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