Another Conservative insider said Ms. Oda (Durham, Ont.), who previously got into trouble with the handwritten “not” allowing funding to non-profit Kairos, said she may be in a for “a rough ride.” Although media have noted that she will likely be moved, the insider also said Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) “does not like to be told what to do by the media,” and may not in the end dump her.
“He does have a stubbornness to him that may see him leave her alone if it means thumbing his nose at the emerging narrative that she is gone,” the insider said.
The Huffington Post Canada reported last week that Ms. Oda could retire from politics before changes to the Cabinet are made, although Ms. Oda also said she has no plans to retire.
Since 2006, the majority of Cabinet vacancies have come up as a result of a minister’s retirement—as in the case of former Treasury Board president Stockwell Day who didn’t run in the last election—or election defeat—as in the case of former Foreign Affairs minister Lawrence Cannon in the last election. Former junior ministers Rob Moore (Fundy Royal, N.B.) and Rob Merrifield (Yellowhead, Alta.) were quietly shuffled out of Cabinet after the May 2011 election; but former MP Helena Guergis’ and Maxime Bernier’s (Beauce, Que.) removals are the only two examples of ministers being kicked out following political scandal. To that end, Mr. Bernier has since been brought back into a junior Cabinet position, responsible for Small Business and Tourism.
In other positions, one Conservative insider said that the likelihood that Defence Minister Peter MacKay (Central Nova, N.S.) will get moved is good. “The question becomes who you replace him with,” the insider said, which is “no small task as that would create a ripple effect of senior folks.”
Others speculate that Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) wants the Defence portfolio, but is seen to be doing a good job at DFAIT. “Swapping with MacKay would not be seen as a good idea by PMO,” said one insider.
Given the stress—in terms of money and effort—Conservatives have put on building their brand around the military, Liberal pundit Rob Silver said he thinks Mr. MacKay has shown himself to be a “bit over his head” at Defence.
“I just don’t think Harper can have such a weak spot … and it’s almost exasperated because Fantino has also not been the strongest,” Mr. Silver said. “I would not be surprised at all if they get rid of Fantino’s role and shift MacKay and put somebody stronger into that ministry. I also think [MacKay] he’ll be put into a slightly less challenging role.”
In further speculation, one insider said there could be a switch in roles for Public Safety Minister Vic Toews (Provencher, Man.) and Justice Minister Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls, Ont.). Because of Mr. Toews’ botched handling of Bill C-30, the Lawful Access Bill, he could be on his way to a new job, while Mr. Nicholson takes on Public Safety.
“It really is tough to say because Nicholson has done a great job in Justice and Toews not so much in PS, so it depends on what else opens up that can serve as a promotion for Nicholson,” said a Conservative lobbyist.
Mr. Silver said he sees Mr. Nicholson as potentially becoming the replacement “fixer” minister for the government. Previously, Mr. Silver said Mr. Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) has played that role, but Mr. Silver said Mr. Baird’s current portfolio—which he was appointed to in May 2011—is one in which it’s important to establish an international reputation and dialogue.
“Harper has shown his go-to fix-it guy for problem ministries is John Baird. The problem with Baird now though is he’s somewhere—I don’t think Harper’s just going to move him out of Foreign Affairs,” Mr. Silver said. “The name I hear in terms of the kind of replacement fixer for Baird is Nicholson. I think a lot of people see him as a competent guy who can go and plug in a hole.”
Other speculation includes a possible move at Citizenship and Immigration. Political observers have said Minister Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.), who’s been in his current role since 2008, “is due for a change.” One insider said there is speculation he may end up at Human Resources to complete his work on immigration and employment issues.
Former minister Monte Solberg made the same move from Immigration in 2006 to Human Resources minister in 2007, essentially swapping jobs with current HRSDC Minister Diane Finley (Haldimand-Norfolk, Ont.).
Tim Powers, vice-president of Summa Communications and a Conservative pundit, said he thinks people feel Public Works Minister Rona Ambrose (Edmonton-Spruce Grove, Alta.) has “certainly come into her own as a very capable minister,” and said he thinks Treasury Board President Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.) has weathered out G-8 funding controversies and is seen as a “steady performer.”
One lobbyist said Industry Minister Christian Paradis (Mégantic-l’Érable, Que.) could also be moved. The lobbyist said he should be moved “before he gets them in real trouble.” He could potentially move to Transport and another Quebec MP could get a promotion into Industry. Mr. Bernier (Beauce, Que.) has previously held the Industry portfolio. Others have said that current Transport Minister Denis Lebel (Roberval-Lac Saint Jean, Que.) has performed well and could also be in for a promotion if Mr. Paradis gets shuffled.
“Paradis has been sanctioned by the ethics officer twice already and is under investigation for a new transgression (accepting the hospitality of somebody bidding for a contract). On top of that he is not the sharpest tool in the shed. So he is ethically challenged,” one lobbyist said. “I’m sure the centre would see him as a walking liability.”
In a detailed and lengthy column last week for Postmedia, Michael Den Tandt noted that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.), who announced new mortgage rules last week, would likely stay in that position. He’s the only minister who has not been shuffled out of his job. He also said Mr. Kenney, Mr. Baird, or Heritage Minister James Moore (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, B.C.) could potentially be “airlifted into Defence to clean house there.”
Conservative MPs Michelle Rempel (Calgary Centre-North, Alta.), Kellie Leitch (Simcoe-Grey, Ont.) and Chris Alexander (Ajax-Pickering, Ont.) are all rookie MPs whose names are floating around as potential Cabinet additions, however observers have noted that Cabinet is already well-stacked with Albertans, which could rule out Ms. Rempel for reasons of regional representation. Political observers have noted, however that Ms. Rempel often outshines Environment Minister Peter Kent (Thornhill, Ont.) in Question Period.
If a Cabinet shuffle happens, it’s expected to come late in the summer.
Mr. Silver said indications that Ms. Oda is on the outs go beyond her expense extravagancies.
“What’s telling to me is how few Conservatives are willing to stand up in public and actually defend her, Mr. Silver said. “Other people who have had situations in that Cabinet, there was a real rallying around the minister, and there hasn’t been for Bev.”
Looking at Mr. Harper’s track record with Cabinet shuffles and his style of stressing “stability and continuity,” Mr. Silver said he thinks “a relatively minor” shuffle will take place: “More of a fine-tuning…there’s some obvious weak spots right now in the Cabinet that may necessitate some shuffling, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that.”
Mr. Silver said he sees more of a tendency from Mr. Harper to shuffle ministers down the Cabinet chain to smaller portfolios rather than shuffling them out of Cabinet altogether.
But in Ms. Oda’s case, Mr. Silver said she already has a small portfolio and doesn’t see where she could go but out. This is similar to Associate Defence Minister Julian Fantino (Vaughan, Ont.), whose Cabinet position specifically revolves around the F-35 procurement process, now dubbed by many as a “fiasco.” He said Mr. Fantino could also be on the outs.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: BEA VONGDOUANGCHANH, LAURA RYCKEWAERT
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