Lockheed Martin argues the airplane’s cost will lower as more countries buy the planes and demand increases. However, Wheeler and Freeman both agree costs are likely to go up.
Seoul wants a guarantee from the U.S. that each of the 60 airplanes it purchases will be no more than $118.3 million.
Freeman thinks Washington may give the guarantee to Seoul with the hopes that more international purchases will keep costs down at home. He says Washington may make American taxpayers cover the remainder of the bill for South Korea and Lockheed Martin.
Wheeler disagrees with Freeman, arguing that, though Seoul is an important ally to Washington, the price is just too high, even for the air force variant.
“Like us, they will have to just wait and see how bad this really gets before committing,” he says.
Even if Seoul successfully secures a guarantee from Washington, there will be crippling costs for flight and maintenance after South Korea purchases the airplane.
The DOD currently estimates every hour in sky costs over $35,000. Freeman says his organization thinks these estimates are low.
“Even so, they are going to fly over 300 hours per year. You’re talking about $11 million per year, per plane. It could cost $660 million a year for South Korea to keep these planes in the sky.”
The costs of flying the planes could limit training hours and, in turn, compromise pilots’ ability to operate an already questionably capable airplane.
“Pilots work and operate best when they’re flying. It’s like anything, you have to stay sharp on whatever you do,” Freeman says. “A plane is only as valuable as the pilot that’s flying it.”
He says South Korea needs to consider the possibility that these costs alone could hinder the efficiency and performance of their air force.
The overpriced F-35
Wheeler says he expects the F-35 program will be the lowest hanging fruit on the vine of budgetary cuts next January when the second round of defense cuts will be addressed, though he doesn’t think it will be dealt with as decisively as it should be.
The navy has shown signs of backing out of their version of the F-35. Countries around the world are also beginning to express concern about the costs and performance of the program and may back out. If this occurs, the price tag for a single unit is likely to rise.
“[The fewer units are sold], the more the unit costs are going to go up and that’s going to affect our foreign and domestic purchases all the same,” Freeman says.
Japan recently announced plans to purchase the F-35, but they have not signed a delivery contract. Unless South Korea wants to pay an inflated price for the jet after signing a contract, Wheeler says it would be wise to wait to see what happens in the next few years.
If South Korea purchases the airplanes they must do so through Foreign Military Sales, a U.S. government-run middle group that deals with weapons sales abroad. The catch: if the prices go up after the agreement, or if the jets don‘t work as promised, South Korea will be powerless to seek redress from Lockheed Martin. Seoul will be forced to pay full price.
Costs may go up so high that even if the U.S. government does provide a $118.3 million price limit guarantee it may simply be too expensive to honor.
“The cost history has a long ways to go and its going nowhere but up,” Wheeler says.
As for the people who get stuck with the F-35 : “They’ll have an airplane that is high cost, difficult to maintain, won’t fly frequently and won’t perform its missions very well,” he said.
New F-16s would do for South Korea
If Seoul is arming itself to against North Korea, Chuck Spinney - an author and former military analyst for the Pentagon who has testified before the U.S. Congress on many occasions - says they simply don‘t need high-tech stealth airplanes.
Spinney says even if stealth did work, it would be unnecessary against North Korea because they don’t have the air defense capability to justify the purchase. He says South Korea would be better off if they simply purchased new F-16’s.
“The F-35 will be an inferior alternative to the F-16,” Spinney says. “They could negotiate for a stripped down air superiority version of the F-16, which would be an outstanding aero performer, and if it made the North Korea ‘strategists’ feel better, they could have a few F-16’s configured for deep-strike bombing of North Korean airfields and missile sites.”
Freeman, Wheeler and Spinney all agree South Korea should not try to put all of their money into one plane. The country should also purchase a ground support airplane like the A-10, which is considered a world-class bomber. They say it would improve their capacity to deal with North Korea in the event of a conflict.
By avoiding the F-35 and opting for a more efficient air force with more aircrafts the opportunity for Seoul could be immense.
“With a low-cost, high-effectiveness force mix like this, South Korean pilots could afford to train aggressively at proper flying hour rates,” he says.
“With proper combined arms training with the South Korean army, South Koreans could have the most capable military in Asia and then perhaps American soldiers could come home.”
Original Article
Source: english.hani.co.kr
Author: Stuart Smallwood
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