The national survey commissioned by Postmedia News and Global TV also reveals that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Tories are slipping in popularity and the once-powerful Liberals are continuing to wane.
Ultimately, the poll conducted this week by Ipsos Reid reveals a historic shift in political allegiances, as a growing consensus forms around the NDP among those Canadians who would like to see Harper’s Tories removed from office.
According to the poll, which asked Canadians who they would vote for if an election occurred today, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 38% of the popular vote, up three points since last month. (That’s also well up from the 2011 election, when the NDP finished second with 31% of the vote.)
The governing Tories would receive 35% of the vote, down two points since last month (and also down from the 40% they attained to win a majority government last year.)
Support for the Liberal party, now heading into an unpredictable leadership race that won’t include its current leader Bob Rae, is also shaky. The party would get 18% of the vote, down one point from its showing in the 2011 election.
The Green party would receive about 4% of the vote. And the Bloc Quebecois, once powerful in its province, is now running second to the NDP there.
Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said in an interview Friday that the findings are part of a significant trend which shows Canadians are becoming more polarized around key issues such as the economy, the role of government, and taxes.
He said left-wing, “progressive” voters are now coalescing around the political voice that offers the strongest opposition to Harper’s government.
“That’s what’s happening now for the NDP,” said Bricker.
“We’re seeing that there is an opposition emerging. People who are against Harper figure that they have the best chance of defeating them, and that’s where they are going.”
Bricker said the trend is reminiscent of the 2004 election, when conservative voters stopped splitting their vote between the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives — thereby making it harder for the Liberals to stay firmly in power.
“The problem that the Tories have now is that they have an opposition that is growing, plus they have a third party (the Liberals) that is not doing its job. The subtext of what you are seeing here is the evisceration of the Liberal party.”
Particularly worrisome for Harper’s party, he said, is that support for the NDP is not only strong in Quebec, but has also skyrocketed in Ontario, where there are many ridings.
The poll found the NDP has taken the lead in Ontario, with 40% support compared to the Tories’ 34%. In Quebec, the NDP is also at 40%, while the Tories are in third place with 18%.
The poll comes in the wake of recent controversy in the House of Commons over the government’s massive budget bill, and as MPs head home to their ridings for the summer to take stock of their constituents’ concerns.
Bricker said he doesn’t ascribe the rise in NDP popularity directly to the political machinations that occurred in the Commons in recent weeks. Nor is he convinced that it’s necessarily because of public support for Mulcair, who was chosen party leader in late March.
Rather, he said it’s connected to the changing nature of the country and the fact the student protests in Quebec represent a broader unease with the economic policies of those in power.
“Quebec has become ground zero for whatever the progressive movement is going to be in the country. And they’re finding allies around the country.”
“People who are progressive, who are just kind of loose fish floating around, are now feeling the NDP is the place to be if you are a progressive.”
Bricker said that, in addition to this trend, the economic uncertainty in Europe could also threaten the Tories’ prospects in the 2015 election. If that economic crisis spills over into Canada and Harper is not able to stem the damage, he could feel the political pinch himself.
“It puts Harper in a pretty precarious situation, because his strong suit is he is best able to manage the country in an economic crisis,” said Bricker.
“If the economy is not managed well and if people are feeling in jeopardy, then that’s him breaking faith on the issue that makes him the most appealing candidate for voters.”
Among the regional findings:
In Ontario, the NDP (40%) is ahead, followed by the Conservatives (34%) while the Liberals are securely in third place (22%), followed by the Green party (4%).
In Quebec, the NDP (40%) continues to dominate, followed by the Bloc (26%), while the Tories (18%) and Liberals (15%) struggle to compete.
In Alberta, the Tories (67%) are well ahead, and are trailed by the NDP (24%), while the Liberals (5%) and Greens (5%) are at the bottom.
In B.C., the Tories (37%) are competing with the NDP (35%), while the Liberals are in third, (21%) and the Greens are last (7%).
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are first (45%), while the NDP (43%) run a close second, and the Liberals (10%) run third. The Greens are last (2%).
In Atlantic Canada, the NDP (38%) are in front, followed by the Liberals (30%), the Tories (26%) and the Greens (6%).
For the survey, a randomly selected sample of 1,099 adult Canadians was interviewed online throughout the Ipsos online panel. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error for the regions is as follows: B.C. – 7.8%; Alberta – 9.8%; Manitoba/Saskatchewan – 12.4%; Ontario – 5.1%; Quebec – 5.5%; Atlantic – 10.4%.
Original Article
Source: national post
Author: Mark Kennedy
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