The prospect of a possible changing of the guard in Quebec City is already focusing attention on Harper’s Achilles’ heel.
Among his five Quebec MPs, only one has anything resembling a following outside his own riding and it is Maxime Bernier, a minister whose free spirit had wrought embarrassment on the government in the past.
In a comparable predicament, past prime ministers used byelections to bring in some top Quebec recruits. But Harper does not have a single safe Conservative seat to play with in the province.
In the circumstances, the Conservatives might think twice before continuing to apply their habitual scorched-earth approach to NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, or to Liberals such as Justin Trudeau or Stéphane Dion.
Their presence in leading roles on Parliament Hill contributes more to the standing of federalism in Quebec than that of the current prime minister.
Harper’s saving grace may be that a weak federal hand is matched by an equally weak sovereigntist hand.
The momentum that could propel the PQ to power in the next election is primarily fuelled not by nationalist passions but by widespread fatigue with a three-term Liberal government.
Jean Charest holds the dubious title of Canada’s most unloved premier but it is just as hard to find an opposition leader as unloved as Pauline Marois. Moreover there is little public appetite for a resumption of the constitutional wars.
But even absent of an immediate referendum threat, the replacement of a bridge-building Quebec premier with a bridge-burning one would not be devoid of national consequences.
René Lévesque spent much time on the road across Canada before becoming premier in the late seventies and Lucien Bouchard entered politics through the House of Commons. By comparison to those predecessors, Marois has shown little curiosity about the workings of the federation.
Her limited English may be to blame but it could also be symptomatic of an absence of interest.
One of the first intergovernmental acts of a PQ government is expected to be the province’s withdrawal from the Council of the Federation — a forum whose creation Charest promoted a decade ago to facilitate a national conversation among the premiers.
An isolationist Quebec government may not be as disruptive to the rest of the federation as one with the support to wade back in the referendum trenches but it could be a major obstacle to Harper’s energy-based economic agenda.
For example, in a recent op-ed piece former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna suggested that building a national pipeline to ensure the flow of Western Canada’s energy resources to the industrial centres of Central and Eastern Canada should be the unity project of the early part of this century.
In many quarters, looking east is increasingly seen as a preferable alternative to running a gauntlet of provincial, First Nations and environmental opponents to link Alberta’s oilsands to the West Coast.
But would the optics of such an undertaking really be attractive against the backdrop of a sovereigntist-led Quebec?
A few days ago, Harper’s Quebec lieutenant signalled that his government was willing to work with whatever provincial party Quebec voters choose to elect.
There were questions as to the timing of Christian Paradis’ statement and suggestions that it was disloyal to Charest.
In fact, the premier’s election strategy rests squarely on forcing Quebecers to confront the reality of a Marois government,
The hope is that as the prospect of the PQ returning to power sinks in, scores of federalist and fatigued nationalist voters will hold their noses and turn out to support the Liberals in the election.
It speaks volumes about Harper’s lack of traction in Quebec that the most he can do to help Charest is acknowledge that the federalist premier could be replaced by the sovereigntist Marois before the leaves turn colour.
Original Article
Source: the star
Author: Hébert, Chantal
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