Stephen Harper’s Pacific trade coup is a murky one

After a stumbling start, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has finally managed to wangle an invitation for Canada to talks to create a powerful new Asia-Pacific free trade zone. Fuzzy as the details are, it’s an initiative worth exploring.

Canada needs to diversify trade, given the struggling American economy and Europe’s debt crisis, and the boom in East Asia and Latin America. We also need to protect the trade deals we have.

While the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks are in what Harper describes as a “fairly preliminary” stage, they fit nicely with his drive to build business abroad. The negotiators aim to create a trade zone that encompasses not only the U.S., Canada and Mexico, but also Chile, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei. That’s a $20-trillion market of 650 million people.

The talks aim to “build on” the existing North American Free Trade Agreement and other trade pacts by reducing tariffs, prying open government procurement, strengthening protection for intellectual property and harmonizing regulations.

Predicting potential gains from all this is a mug’s game. But the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington has just estimated that a TPP could generate almost $300 billion more in annual income among the partners. For Canada, that would imply a $10- billion bump-up. Those gains could be far larger, in the $2 trillion range collectively, if the TPP were to be adopted as a template by the 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group that also includes China, Russia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

The relatively modest near-term stakes may explain why Harper’s interest in the Pacific trade talks, which began in 2005, initially was lukewarm. Ottawa got galvanized only when Washington got involved in 2009. The TPP is U.S. President Barack Obama’s way of deepening ties with key Asian partners, in part to offset China’s influence. Canada couldn’t afford to ignore that shift.

Still, the Harper government’s reflexive secrecy has left Canadians wondering just what Ottawa is prepared to trade off, to be part of the club. The Prime Minister’s trade coup is a murky one. Parliament has seen nothing like the cost/benefit analysis that is called for, even at this early stage.

Concerns have been raised by the U.S. and others about Canada’s supply management to protect farmers who produce poultry, eggs and dairy products. About investment in telecommunications and cultural industries. About copyright protection and intellectual property rights. And about our attitudes toward foreign investment.

While Harper insists that “Canada has not agreed to any specific measures,” hard bargaining lies ahead. The question for Parliament is: Will the expected economic gains for Canada offset any giveaways we may face? And as a latecomer will Canada be under pressure to swallow deals cut by the original partners?

Just now it’s hard to know. If Harper hopes to avoid a maelstrom of public concern for Canadian sovereignty, jobs and culture as talks progress, he will have to sell this trade pact, not just negotiate it behind closed doors. A good place to start would be to shed some light on what Ottawa expects to gain, and what it is being asked to barter away.

Original Article
Source: the star
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