“From all the different things that I’ve seen, they’re all pretty active, doing a lot of regional stuff which is not unusual in the summer, getting close to the constituents,” Conservative pundit and Summa Strategies vice-president Tim Powers told The Hill Times last week.
“Most of the action has been local or portfolio-based in key areas where key announcements and decisions need to be made,” said Mr. Powers.
Nanos Research pollster Nik Nanos told The Hill Times last week that while Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) is still Canadians’ first choice, his leadership index rating fell since last September from 114.2 last fall to 72.7 in a recent survey.
“This coming fall I would expect that there’s going to be some sort of charm offensive to help slowly get Stephen Harper’s brand back to where the Conservatives have had it for the last number of years,” Mr. Nanos said. “Prior to his brand taking a hit, he had a lot of coattails that the government and the party could ride on. Those coattails are shorter now.”
But pundits said last week that Mr. Harper will continue to do what he’s always done since gaining power: remind people why they elected him.
“I don’t know if I’d use the term ‘charm offensive’. I’d call it a competency offensive and remind people why they chose him,” Mr. Powers said. “I think he always takes opportunities to do that. … I think the Prime Minister likes to play from his strong hand and his strong hand is economic management. I think you’ll probably see, as you have every summer since he’s been Prime Minister, a fairly hectic August for him that will showcase him and the government doing the things they do to keep the Canadian economy strong.”
Prime Minister Harper is scheduled to go out West in early August, and to the Arctic in August. He will also likely hold Cabinet meetings to prepare for the resumption of Parliament and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to visit Canada Aug. 15-16 to discuss the global economy, trade and investments ties.
Yaroslav Baran, a former Conservative Hill staffer who is now with the Earnscliffe Strategy Group in Ottawa, said that so often the punditry is tempted to evaluate politicians through “Hollywood-like branding notions,” and pay “way too much attention to the latest poll.”
“Yes, it’s easier to talk about Prime Minister so-and-so being associated with this or that major legacy showpiece—like the Charter or NEP or NAFTA or the Auto Pact, or whatever. But the fact is that ‘caretaker PMs’ tend to outlast the ‘vision PMs,’” said Mr. Baran in an email to The Hill Times. “Vision politics—or blockbuster policies, if you want to call them that—tend to be the most polarizing, and this past spring is the closest we’ve seen from our government to doing that kind of thing. Personally, do I think it’s all that bold and controversial to say, ‘We’re going to reform our regulatory process so that investors will know within two years whether or not they’ll get approval?’ No. I think it’s a no-brainer. But because of the subject matter involved, it was also catnip to the opposition and some like-minded ENGOs who are ideologically hostile to the government. So it was blown up successfully by the opposition and its allies into something larger than life.”
Mr. Baran said “larger-than-life policy” traditionally happens when a government starts to lose its shine. “But then the issue goes away and life starts to get back to normal.”
Mr. Baran said, for the most part, Prime Minister Harper’s tenure “has been one of peace, order and good government.” Prime Minister Harper has “not been particularly keen on ‘vision’ politics. He believes in providing sound governance while cleaning up the system wherever he can. His legacy will likely not be on the scale of rewriting the Constitution, but it will be an aggregate of many smaller items: democratic cleanup, a sound economy, a more prosperous citizenry, expanded free trade markets, and a justice system that more accurately reflects Canadians’ values. I would say that continuing to govern in the image of your public is charm offensive enough.”
Lobbyist and former Conservative candidate John Capobianco agreed, saying that it’s easy to peg any strategy promoting one’s self as a “charm offensive,” but “at the end of the day … the Prime Minister’s never changed his way of looking at things, and his approach to running government from the time he’s had a minority government to the time he’s had a majority government.”
Mr. Capobianco, senior vice-president at Fleishman-Hillard, said the economy has always been Mr. Harper’s strong point, which he will continue to emphasize. “From my perspective, I don’t see it as a charm offensive, I don’t see it as a campaign that he’s going to be involved in,” he said.
“I think, from Nik’s perspective, the numbers are the numbers, but I think the Prime Minister’s always held a strong base of support throughout and notwithstanding the NDP with their recent leadership campaign and the honeymoon blip that [Thomas] Mulcair got, I think that will all even out. … I think at the end of the day, Canadians see the Prime Minister as the most competent and the most capable leader.”
Mr. Nanos said last week that Mr. Harper’s brand has suffered more than the Conservative brand.
“There’s been a more dramatic drop in Stephen Harper’s personal brand, compared to that of the Conservatives,” said Mr. Nanos, adding that mishandling the F-35 fighter jet procurement has been particularly damaging. “The Conservatives’ brand has been built around economic stewardship and competency,” Mr. Nanos said. “For a lot of Canadians, whether they vote for the Conservatives or another party, they’re wondering how the Conservatives could have made mistakes in terms of estimating the costs related to the F-35.”
Mr. Powers said that while the morale in the party is generally that people are in a “good mood,” they have not been complacent and understand there’s always room for improvement.
“I think a number of people recognize that there were bumps and bruises at the end of the legislative session, that certainly the government took some heat on the process related to the omnibus legislation and other files, F-35s and so forth, but everybody now has a long window view which impacts morale,” he said.
“What I mean by that is they recognize that without the immediate threat of elections that were so common in the minority era and the fact that people are new to a majority last year, there’s a calmness … but no one is complacent or unaware of the challenges and the corrections that need to be made going forward. Any good organization sometimes needs minor corrections here and there. I think you use the summer to reflect on how you can improve your performance. I think people are off doing that.”
Mr. Powers also noted that it’s a good, regular thing to do.
“I think one of the strategies of selling is to always remind people why they buy. I think Canadians have supported the Conservative Party in large part on how this government has managed the economy and the successes that they’ve had doing that. I think you always lead from your position of strength, and that’s the strength of the government right now,” Mr. Powers said.
Despite the number, political pundit Gerry Nicholls said, there is still time for the Conservatives to turn things around by the next election.
“Harper has no need to launch a ‘charm offensive.’ Knowing Harper as I do, he probably has a long-range plan that he will continue to implement,” Mr. Nicholls, who worked with Mr. Harper at the National Citizens Coalition, told The Hill Times last week. “And certainly, Harper’s success so far has not relied on his ‘charm,’ with his robotic demeanor; Harper actually exudes ‘anti-charm.’ Harper is successful because his policy messages—economic strength, stability, law and order—resonate with Canadians. In short, people support Harper not because they like him, but because they agree with him.”
A summer Conservative caucus meeting is expected to be announced this week. Insiders said there will not be one in August, but rather one in September to take place in Ottawa, prior to the House returning on Sept. 17.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: Bea Vongdouangchanh
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