OK, that “in-waiting” part is calculated hyperbole, but here’s the point: this guy is not a joke or a bad dream, or a momentary political diversion.
He’s the federal official Opposition leader whose party is ahead by two percentage points in the national polls. The latest numbers show that if an election were held now, the Harper Conservative would barely squeak out a minority.
Albertans cannot just wish Mulcair away; in fact, 18.5 per cent of us want to vote him in. At some point (starting today would be good) he has to be taken seriously.
Clearly, his aggressive stance on energy — first slagging the oilsands for hurting Canada’s economy, now calling for the shutdown of a project vital to Alberta’s access to markets — is working. That’s because Mulcair both voices and shapes growing national opinion.
The NDP leads the Conservatives in both B.C. and Quebec. In crucial Ontario, Mulcair’s party is only three points behind Harper’s crew. The New Democrats lead by eight points in Atlantic Canada.
All this is happening while the tattered Liberals still scoop up 20 per cent of national support. If the left manages to merge or if the Liberals simply collapse under the weight of the NDP, it’s look out Stephen Harper.
Premier Alison Redford’s sole diplomatic error in her Canadian energy offensive, in my view, is to not meet Mulcair on the grounds that there’s no point because she can’t change his mind about the oilsands, the dollar and other energy matters.
She might be a bit spooked by the memory of James Cameron, the movie director whose red carpet welcome so badly hurt former premier Ed Stelmach.
There’s no link whatever. Alberta leaders didn’t have to meet a movie guy with diving bell fantasies. But someday the premier could badly need a working relationship with Mulcair.
Mayor Naheed Nenshi will welcome him at City Hall today.
Enbridge president Al Monaco would be glad to see Mulcair, too, he says. Intergovernmental Minister Cal Dallas said the NDP leader is always welcome in Alberta.
They all must know — and Redford surely does, too — that everything is breaking Mulcair’s way.
The flat-out attack on Enbridge by Debbie Hersman, head of the U.S. Transportation Safety Board, was stunning in its brutality.
Likening the company to the Keystone Kops over its handling of the Kalamazoo River oil leak, she cited the company’s 17-hour delay in taking action and failure to repair the line even though corrosion was evident as far back as 2004.
That played directly into Mulcair’s hands. Visiting Victoria on Wednesday, he said the Northern Gateway pipeline plan “should be stopped and the plug should be pulled on it.”
The stakes in these stands of his go far beyond pipelines or even the oilsands, to political opportunities that could hugely increase his influence across the country.
In B.C., not only is his federal NDP leading the polls, but the provincial New Democrats are ahead of the governing Liberals by a mammoth 45 per cent to 23 per cent.
An NDP government in B.C. would give Mulcair huge leverage on the coast. It would also kill any hope of progress on Northern Gateway for at least four years.
Quebec is even more promising for Mulcair. With the prospect of the Parti Quebecois demolishing Premier Jean Charest’s Liberals, the country could face a third push toward a referendum on separation.
And Mulcair, with a 58-member caucus from Quebec, would immediately be a crucial federal force in that debate.
If he plays his hand well he could come to be seen as a mediator who helps save Canada. That would raise his credibility enormously, especially in Ontario.
The federal Conservative response so far is to go after Mulcair in attack ads. No provincial strategy is yet evident. They’d better get moving, and fast — because Thomas Mulcair sure is.
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Don Braid
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