“I don’t want to exaggerate but I think he’s been an overwhelming success so far in his short time as leader,” said David McGrane, University of Saskatchewan political science professor and an expert on the New Democrats.
Prof. McGrane said that Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) has been particularly impressive in the way he’s been able to keep support for the party in Quebec, which had been flagging after the Orange Crush that swept the province in May 2011, going strong.
“Overnight he solidified Quebec for them, and after that he really started to make roads in English Canada, particularly in Ontario and even in the west and Atlantic Canada. In terms of the polls it’s been a success so far,” he said.
The NDP trail the Conservatives nationally by just five per cent, with 32 per cent support. The Conservatives sit at 37 per cent while the Liberals sit at 20 per cent and the Greens and the Bloc Québécois sit at six per cent each. The poll was conducted by Abacus Data and released Aug. 15. It’s considered accurate plus or minus 2.2 per cent 19 times out of 20.
Mr. Mulcair was elected at the NDP’s leadership convention March 24 in Toronto, beating seven other candidates.
“It really has been I’d say a remarkable start for a leader of the official opposition,” said Summa Strategies’ Robin MacLachlan, a former NDP staffer who supported Paul Dewar (Ottawa Centre, Ont.) during the leadership race.
Mr. MacLachan said that Mr. Mulcair has been particularly adept at uniting the NDP caucus after the leadership race.
“That is often the first test that a leader will face: how can you bring together your fellow leadership candidates, the caucus from the front bench to the back bench and present a unified opposition? That is what to me, I think, the most important early success of Tom’s leadership was,” he explained.
To that end Mr. Mulcair has also done a good job of showcasing other strong NDP players and improving the party’s credibility as a government in waiting.
“One of his real successes has been succeeding at both leading the NDP as the official opposition and presenting the NDP front bench as future Cabinet ministers,” said Mr. MacLachlan.
University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman said that under Mr. Mulcair’s stewardship, the NDP is gaining clout in unconventional areas.
“He’s succeeded in making people, not just the general public but also elite opinion leaders in business and in media take the NDP more seriously and also see them as less threatening than they did even under Tommy Douglas,” he explained.
Mr. MacLachan noted that while it’s been a short time since Mr. Mulcair was elected leader, it’s been an eventful one, with the NDP’s filibuster against the Conservatives’ omnibus budget bill, and with Mr. Mulcair’s outspoken stance on oilsands development and Canadian manufacturing.
Both Prof. McGrane and Prof. Wiseman said that the NDP and Mr. Mulcair would have benefited from the honeymoon period a leader experiences with the Canadian public after being chosen.
Prof. Wiseman said that it would be a test of Mr. Mulcair’s ability in sustaining that good will.
Some pundits thought that the honeymoon was over when Mr. Mulcair warned that unfettered development of Alberta’s oilsands would lead to a hollowing out of Canada’s manufacturing sector this spring, a stance Mr. MacLachlan said is a “defining issue for Mr. Mulcair and the NDP.”
Mr. MacLachlan said that while his remarks initially were scoffed at, people seem to be coming around to Mr. Mulcair’s position.
“Now it seems that every political leader, particularly in B.C. from Premier [Christy] Clark to James Moore are trying to align themselves with his position on the development of the oilsands, on pipelines, and more generally on the economy,” he said.
Prof. Wiseman agreed. “His position on the oil sands, what’s striking there is at first I thought, ‘Uh oh, this is impolitic, he’s going to drop in the polls.’ But they didn’t drop and the more you got to hear what he said … his position is that polluter pays. If you put that to people, they’re in favour of that,” he said.
But if the NDP are going to be thought of as a serious alternative to the Conservatives, Mr. Mulcair and the party are going to have to start presenting their own solutions to resource development and the economy to Canadians, noted Prof. McGrane.
“That’s a pretty big challenge,” he said. “I know what he said about the Dutch disease was very controversial but it was the first time almost ever in my memory that the NDP has been at the forefront of a debate about the economy.”
Mr. Mulcair has also been working to set up a binary in the House of Commons, framing the debates as between the Conservatives and the New Democrat Official Opposition and pushing the Liberals and their leader Bob Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.) out of the picture.
Prof. McGrane said that Mr. Mulcair has been “very effective” at this so far.
“More and more Canadians are only seeing politics in a very polarized fashion between the NDP and the Conservatives,” said Prof. McGrane.
He added that this strategy would continue into the fall, especially as the Liberals head into their own leadership race.
The past few months have also afforded Canadians a good look at Mr. Mulcair’s leadership style. During the leadership race, he was painted by his detractors as an unpredictable hot-head who would sour former leader Jack Layton’s legacy of optimistic politics in Canadians’ eyes.
So far there have been no major public blowups.
“Yes he’s a tenacious opponent in the House of Commons, his friends and foes alike will be quick to admit that, but I think that’s what progressive Canadians are looking for in opposition to Stephen Harper. Someone who can take that fight to the Conservatives,” said Mr. MacLachlan.
Mr. Mulcair’s years as a Liberal Cabinet minister in the rough and tumble Quebec National Assembly have shaped his style, he added.
“I think people want Tom to fly off the handle. I think that fits into a narrative that others are trying to write,” said Mr. MacLachlan.
In the mean time, the more Mr. Mulcair is at the NDP’s helm, the more his colleagues will become accustomed to his style, pointed out Prof. Wiseman.
“As each month, as each week, as each day goes by, Mulcair is becoming more ensconced in the culture in the party, and the party at the same time is becoming more influenced by Mulcair,” he said.
Mr. MacLachlan said that he would define Mr. Mulcair’s leadership style as “disciplined.”
Nowhere has this been more evident than in his handling of Quebec issues. The NDP’s largely rookie caucus comes overwhelmingly from the province, and when mass student protests on tuition fees arose in this spring, some observers predicted it would cause cracks in the group’s unity. Instead, they remained largely silent and while some MPs marched with demonstrators, the party did not become entangled in provincial affairs.
Prof. McGrane said that Mr. Mulcair has been “pretty intelligent” in his handling of the protests and in keeping his party out of the current Quebec election.
He will, however, be challenged if a Parti Québécois government is elected on Sept. 4 and begins picking fights with Ottawa.
“If the PQ does win, and they do start demanding things, which they will right away, how is he going to handle that?” said Prof. McGrane.
Prof. Wiseman predicted that Mr. Mulcair would stick to his current strategy of silence, which has been working so far.
“The challenge to the NDP and Mulcair will be, well is he going to carry the torch for Quebec in the House? We’ll see. I suspect, he’s very astute, he’ll do what he did now in the provincial election,” he explained.
When the House of Commons returns from summer recess Sept. 17, Mr. Mulcair and his official opposition team will be facing a renewed and refreshed Prime Minister and Cabinet, said Mr. MacLachlan.
“[The Conservatives] really lost control of the agenda, and the NDP under Tom Mulcair’s leadership was able to take control of that agenda. Even without the votes to defeat a budget, the NDP was able to at least define the narrative around the budget,” he said.
He said that Mr. Mulcair will be challenged to keep the focus on the Conservatives’ economic record this fall.
Prof. Wiseman said that Mr. Mulcair will have to utilize his skills in the House.
“I think he’s good in the House. He may not have the humour that a guy like Rae has, the quickness in a response, but I think he’s got a good handle on the files, and I think he’s forceful,” he said.
He added that historically, governments face a dip in their popularity around the second year of their mandate, but that with an election still far off, it would be a challenge for Mr. Mulcair to capitalize on the situation.
What he can do is develop a strong long-term image, explained Prof. Wiseman.
This is one area where Mr. Mulcair can improve, said Mr. MacLachlan.
“As leader of the official opposition and government in waiting, Canadians need to know Tom,” he said. “He needs to work hard so that Canadians can get to know the smiling Tom Mulcair. They see the tenacious fighter in the House of Commons but they need to get to know the person.”
But just six months into his tenure as NDP leader, Mr. Mulcair has a long way to go before the opportunity to prove himself at the polls.
“[The next election in] 2015 is a long way off, so these first six months have been good but the challenge going forward is how do we maintain that discipline and that united front both inside and outside the House of Commons?” said Mr. MacLachlan.
The NDP caucus is meeting in St. John’s, Nfld., from Sept. 4-6.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: JESSICA BRUNO
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