The Abacus Data Inc. poll reveals a deep wedge between Alberta and B.C., two political pillars of Harper’s majority government, and suggests a growing distance between Alberta and the rest of the country.
The online poll of 2,099 Canadians also indicates that a majority in the country, with the notable exception of Albertans, support B.C. Premier Christy Clark’s call for a better financial payoff to off-set the environmental risk posed by the $6 billion oilsands pipeline, according to a poll made public Friday.
And it shows that Canadians outside Alberta, and especially British Columbians, don’t buy the federal government’s argument that the entire country benefits from oilsands expansion.
A surprising 41 per cent of B.C. respondents who voted Conservative in 2011 said they don’t support the project that is closely identified with the Harper government.
The pipeline debate “is dividing not only eastern and western Canada but also the populations of the country’s two western neighbours, whose people are more divided on the issue than ever before,” Abacus chief executive David Coletto wrote in his analysis of the results.
Coletto, pollster for the Conservative-friendly Sun News Network, said his findings offer an explanation for the government’s recent effort to distance itself from the project.
James Moore, Harper’s senior B.C. minister, was harshly critical of Northern Gateway a few weeks after a U.S. regular’s devastating report in July labeled Enbridge a “Keystone Kops” company due its handling of a massive 2010 Michigan spill.
Harper followed with a statement in Vancouver earlier this month saying science, rather than politics, will determine whether the project gets the federal go-ahead.
“While it is unclear whether the Conservative caucus in B.C. advocated for a softening of the Harper government’s position on Northern Gateway, our data clearly demonstrates their motivation to do so,” Coletto wrote on the iPolitics website Friday.
The Harper government faces a challenge in both convincing Canadians of the benefits of pipelines, and in maintaining his party’s longstanding dominance in B.C., according to Coletto.
Nationally, three in 10 respondents (31 per cent) backed the pipeline, down seven points from an Abacus poll in January with a similar question. The percentage of respondents against the project rose three points to 32 per cent. The remaining respondents were unsure of their position.
But positions were much more firm in the two western provinces. A total of 63 per cent of Albertans were “somewhat” or “strongly” in favour, compared to just 17 per cent against.
In B.C. a country-leading 56 per cent were against, compared to just 24 per cent in favour. The gap was even more stark among those with strong feelings – just seven per cent of B.C. respondents were “strongly” in favour, while 40 per cent were “strongly” opposed.
“All this adds up to a potentially big mess for the federal government,” Coletto wrote in his analysis.
“One part of its base, Alberta, supports the pipeline while another part (British Columbia) is deeply opposed. As the rest of the country continues to make up its mind, Stephen Harper and the Conservative government will have to find a way to manage this difficult issue.”
In an email interview Coletto said the Harper government’s majority could be at risk in 2015 unless he successfully distances his government from the project in B.C or increases Tory support in other parts of the country.
The Tories currently hold 21 of 36 seats, and B.C. will become even more important in 2015 with the addition of six new seats – the majority of them in traditional Conservative territory.
“I do think the Tories are risking support if they remain adamantly supportive of the pipeline,” Coletto said.
Harper “needs all its seats in B.C. to keep its majority. If 2015 is about energy and the government doesn’t sell the importance of the oil sands and energy transportation to Canadians, look out.”
The Abacus survey of 2,099 Canadians was drawn from an online panel of 150,000 Canadians. The company weighted data so respondents reflected Canadian census data in terms of factors like age and gender. The survey was conducted August 10-12 and included an extra-large sample from B.C. totaling 793 respondents.
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Peter O'Neil
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