The campaign is still young and if as many things happen in the remaining four weeks as in the first, poll numbers could swing in many different directions. Still, if the vote were held today, the Parti Québécois would form the next government of the province of Québec.
If that is how things unfold on voting day, Sept. 4, how will the new premier, Pauline Marois, approach the relationship with the rest of Canada? How high is the risk of a third referendum on separation?
Québec’s political future is not an issue in this campaign. The PQ’s platform only states that once in government, the party will hold a referendum “at a time it deems appropriate.” That time will not come early if we believe the polls showing only 40 per cent of Quebecers in favour of separation (the same level of support as in the 1980 referendum).
In an attempt to assuage the PQ’s hardcore supporters, Marois has proposed what she calls a “sovereigntist governance.” If she becomes premier, she will demand that the federal government cede new jurisdictions to the province — for instance, employment insurance.
Bernard Drainville, a prominent PQ member of the National Assembly, recently explained the advantages of that strategy for the separatists: “I don’t see how we can lose. If Quebec wins (more powers), it becomes stronger. If Quebec is rebuffed, the demonstration is made that there is a limit to our ability to progress in this country.”
Quebecers may choose the PQ to govern the province but it does not mean they have a large appetite for new federal-provincial fights. On the contrary, the majority is tired of constitutional battles and of the whole separation issue. Not that they are less nationalist. Simply put, they don’t think the problem can be solved in the foreseeable future. Therefore, why waste time and energy over it?
This is the sentiment the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is counting on to increase its support. The party was founded less than a year ago on the initiative of a former PQ minister, François Legault.
He has put together an improbable coalition of federalists (including veterans from the Liberal Party of Canada) and separatists under an umbrella of reforms to tackle Québec’s concrete and urgent problems, for instance poor access to health care and a high dropout rate.
Legault has sworn not to get involved in constitutional issues for at least 10 years. More recently, he went so far as to say he did not believe in sovereignty anymore: “For me, the idea of having a country just to have a country, and then have a great big constitutional fight, I don’t think it’s appropriate,” he told Le Devoir.
The CAQ has had a good early campaign, avoiding the pitfalls that often lie in wait for new political parties. Still, its support is fragile and significantly below that of the two “old parties.” So again, even though much could change before voting day, the most probable scenario at this point is a PQ victory.
Though current circumstances are not ripe for a referendum, once the Péquistes are in power, they will control the agenda. Brilliant strategists as they are, they will try to provoke a crisis that will fuel nationalist sentiment. When regional or linguistic tensions arise, as is bound to happen in a country as complex as ours, they will use them to their advantage. And, as soon as the polls look favourable, they will hold the referendum they have been dreaming of since the “stolen referendum” of 1995.
What should the rest of Canada do?
Federal and provincial politicians will have to act wisely so as not to give the PQ government ammunition, while at the same time defending national interests. Ottawa will need a subtle understanding of what is going on in Quebec, an intelligence it presently seems to lack because of the weak presence of French-speaking Quebecers in the high levels of government.
A final consideration. If the provincial Liberals are defeated on Sept. 4, Jean Charest will quit politics. Quebec federalists will lose the man who has been their best champion for two decades, with no successor on the horizon. A separatist government would therefore find itself more dominant then ever on the provincial scene.
So, what if the PQ wins? Just wish it does not happen.
Original Article
Source: the star
Author: André Pratte
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