Here are five that could muscle their way on to centre stage some time between now and Christmas:
Tom Mulcair and the Quebec tap dance: Pauline Marois may have been held to a minority, but that doesn’t mean the Quebec premier will not attempt to provoke Ottawa.
Marois has already forced Stephen Harper’s hand on asbestos, forcing the federal government to finally drop its support of a carcinogenic export that had badly stained this country’s reputation abroad.
She has in her hand a court ruling giving her the right to the data needed to establish a provincial long gun registry and there were signs Friday that Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird was trying to shape a more humanitarian foreign policy in a Montreal speech, sanding the sharp military edges to emphasize Canadian “values” shared by Quebec.
But where does this leave Opposition leader Mulcair, a former Quebec provincial cabinet minister overseeing a caucus top heavy with Quebec MPs whose provincial political sentiments are not always clear?
Mulcair must bob and weave, carefully backing Marois when he feels Quebec interests must be defended, pivoting to the federalist leader he is when need be, all the time fending off volleys from across the aisle over his party’s Sherbrooke Declaration, which would allow Quebec to separate on a simple 50 per cent plus one vote.
Conservatives are waiting to exploit any holes in his federalist armour.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal caucus: Parties in the midst of leadership races traditionally do not show the discipline needed to hold a government to account.
But it is worth watching whether the shallow Red Sea will part and make it clear the job is Trudeau’s if, as expected, he runs.
If so, the MP for Papineau must be drawn out on policy and that job will fall to the parliamentary press gallery.
Pipeline shifts: As Ottawa dozed, Northern Gateway pipeline opposition galvanized over the summer, leaving the Harper Conservatives furiously paddling in its wake.
Harper signaled a change in tone, suggesting science, not politics, would decide the pipeline’s fate. But no one expects him to fold up on something he called a national priority.
Watch for more conciliatory language, an end to the attacks on the “money-laundering,” “radical” environmentalists and listen for tone stressing safety, responsibility, environmental stewardship and other softer, fuzzy, less confrontational buzzwords.
We may also start hearing Go East, Young Man, when it comes to laying pipe.
Organized labour vs. Conservatives: There is a stealth “right-to-work” movement at the federal level tightening around labour unions.
The government backs a private member’s bill by Conservative MP Russell Hiebert, which would force unions to be more transparent about how they spend dues collected from their workers.
Pierre Poilievre, an Ottawa-area MP with considerable influence and a former parliamentary secretary to Harper, has promised to push for the right of federal unionized workers to opt out of paying union dues after the Public Service Alliance of Canada backed Marois as the most worker-friendly candidate in the recent Quebec election.
Both moves would fundamentally weaken long-held labour rights in this country and start Canada on the race to the bottom adopted by 23 U.S. states. The Canadian labour movement will engage in this battle. Harper will attempt to paint New Democrats as being in the pocket of “big union bosses.”
Restless backbench: The big summer cabinet shuffled advertised in many quarters (including this column) didn’t happen, leaving those with cabinet aspirations hanging.
But it also reinforced the resolve of the glut of Conservative backbenchers who gave up on cabinet posts long ago and may feel emboldened to speak out on issues the Harper government would prefer to leave unspoken.
The prime minister has given a little more leash to his backbench to speak its mind and he has shown considerable skill in keeping his caucus in line.
But he may have to draw on those skills again. Mid-mandate is a classic time for the governing gang to get a bit unruly.
Another omnibus bill is coming down the tracks.
A would-be maverick popped up and was smacked down in the last session.
Harper knows how the opposition will react, but he should be worried less about his enemies and more about his so-called friends sitting in his own caucus.
Original Article
Source: the star
Author: Tim Harper
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