“This is the largest acquisition ever in Canada by an offshore state-owned enterprise, and this kind of thing always generates some degree of debate and or unease,” Earnscliffe Strategy Group principal Yaroslav Baran told The Hill Times in an email. “You can bet there will be discussion about this—all the different angles, from populist sentiment to reciprocity to the market signals that the final decision will send.”
Industry Minister Christian Paradis (Mégantic-l’Érable, Que.) said last week in a statement that he will take the time needed “to carefully examine CNOOC’s proposed acquisition of Nexen Inc. and determine whether it is likely to be of net benefit to Canada.”
Mr. Baran, who previously worked as a Hill staffer to the government House leader, said the Conservative Party policy planks such as economic management, international trade, and resource development will also likely be topics of discussion for the party in the lead up to the fall legislative session.
“The new catchphrase is that trade is the new stimulus,” Mr. Baran noted, identifying the progress on the Canada-EU free trade agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership as key priorities for the government this fall.
“Diversifying trade relationships has been a key government objective over the past six years, with nine free trade agreements concluded to date—albeit with smaller countries—and [more than] 50 other negotiations underway,” he said.
He also pointed to the outcome of this week’s Quebec election as an issue that could “colour the tone of the next of couple of years.”
Conservative support has eroded in Quebec. The party currently holds only five of the province’s 75 seats, and had a poll average of 16 per cent support in the province in July, trailing the Liberals at 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 20 per cent, and the NDP at 39 per cent.
The Tories will convene on the morning of Sept. 17 for a standard half-day caucus meeting on Parliament Hill. This will be the fourth consecutive year that the Conservatives convene in Ottawa prior to the start of the fall legislative session.
Conservative national caucus chair Guy Lauzon declined to comment on the agenda for the upcoming meeting.
Mr. Baran said the upcoming meeting is an important venue for sharing constituent feedback, but he also identified a number of issues that the Conservative caucus needed to be mindful of going into the fall session.
“The end-of-summer caucus meeting is always an important opportunity for the government to garner feedback from MPs and Senators on what they’ve been hearing from constituents over the summer, and also to collaboratively discuss the major issues that will be consuming or contributing to the government’s agenda,” Mr. Baran said.
While Conservatives will hold a half-day huddle on the first day back to Parliament, the official opposition is hoping to bolster its rising Atlantic support with a two-day summer caucus retreat this week in St. John’s, Nfld.
New Democrats will convene at the Sheraton Hotel on Sept. 5 and 6 to prepare for the upcoming legislative session.
NDP House leader Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.) told The Hill Times that this week’s meeting of New Democrats will focus on presenting the party to Canadians as a viable alternative to the governing Conservatives when the House resumes this fall.
“We will be focused on, as Jack used to say, being ready to propose and not just oppose,” Mr. Cullen said, referring to late NDP leader Jack Layton, who passed away from cancer on Aug. 22 last year.
“Our plans will be in the short and medium term as far as what we’re doing in this upcoming session, but also putting together foundations to present ourselves as a viable government in a couple of years’ time,” he said.
Mr. Cullen said that one benefit to his party meeting more than a week ahead of returning to Parliament was that it allowed MPs time to return to their constituencies and test their message with voters.
“Going away and confirming our plans and then going back home allows us to ground-test some of our plans,” Mr. Cullen acknowledged.
In the year and a half since the Conservatives won their first majority government and the NDP became the official opposition for the first time in history, national support for the Tories has declined slightly while support for the New Democrats has held steady.
Last May the Conservatives won a 166 seat majority with 39.6 per cent of the popular vote nationally, while the NDP won 103 seats with 30.6 per cent of the popular vote.
According to the latest averaging of national polls by aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com, the Conservatives and NDP are now statistically tied in public support, with the two parties’ polling at 33.9 and 33.6 per cent, respectively. The Liberals are a distant third, polling at 21.7 per cent.
The NDP owes its persistent support to a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada over the past year. On election day the party received 29 per cent of popular support in the region, trailing both the Conservatives and the Liberals, who received 38 and 30 per cent popular support at the ballot box, respectively.
An averaging of polls in Atlantic Canada by ThreeHundredEight.com shows the NDP leading all other parties with 38.3 per cent support in the region as of Aug. 30, while the Liberals are polling at 29.6 per cent and the Conservatives are polling at 28 per cent.
In July, NDP national caucus chair Peter Julian (Burnaby-New Westminster, B.C.) told The Hill Times that his party was “very keen” on solidifying its support base in the Atlantic.
University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman said that part of the NDP’s aim in holding its summer caucus meeting in Newfoundland is to consolidate its Atlantic support.
“This is really remarkable and sort of unheard of,” Mr. Wiseman said of the recent polling data, noting that the New Democrats currently hold only six of 32 seats in the region. “If they could pick up a number of seats there it will really strengthen their hand.”
As for the Liberals, the party’s approaching leadership race is likely to be the most talked-about item at their national caucus meeting this week in Montebello, Que., despite that fact that it’s not formally on the agenda, said caucus chair Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac Saint Louis, Que.).
“What will come out of this caucus is a greater focus on the Liberal leadership campaign,” he said. “There may be more talk on the periphery of the caucus meeting if you will, amongst observers, about potential leadership candidates and so on.”
Mr. Scarpaleggia said that items like spending limits and other party rules would likely be announced.
Liberal Party President Mike Crawley will likely announce some of the rules that will govern the leadership contest, set to come to a head next spring, said Liberal insider Rob Silver, but it’s not clear whether all of the rules will be announced this week.
There has also been some speculation that a number of candidates will use the retreat as an opportunity to launch their campaigns, said Mr. Silver, but he cautioned that doing so would risk having a leadership announcement get lost in the deluge of other announcements and messages coming out of caucus next week.
“Of all the places I would launch, a caucus retreat would be pretty much at the bottom of the list,” Mr. Silver said.
The caucus meet itself will be useful in “mapping out” the coming fall session, said Mr. Scarpaleggia.
The Conservatives currently have 21 bills moving through the House of Commons, with another one set to come in from the Senate. The Upper Chamber currently has two government bills on the go.
Another budget implementation bill, as well as a fall economic update, are expected this fall.
Mr. Silver said that the party would likely focus on strategy and messaging for the fall session. He added that debates on policy would soon take place in the forum of the leadership race.
“There’s going to be a lot of discussion in terms of various issues, in terms of whether [we] should be changing our positions from the past on issues, and that’s properly debated within the context of the leadership race. That’s different from, ‘How do we respond to what the Conservatives are saying?’” he said.
Mr. Scarpaleggia said that caucus offers the opportunity to “firm up” the party’s position on issues and open up discussions into new ones.
The effect of the leadership race on House strategy will also be discussed. Mr. Silver said that having Mr. Rae as a committed interim leader will give the party stability.
The party will also have to figure out how to remain relevant as the third-place team in the House, especially as the NDP return without their own leadership race handicap this fall. The NDP and the Conservatives will be looking for ways to push the Liberals to the sidelines.
Who in the party will be tapped to take on a higher profile while leadership candidates are absent from the House will be a topic of conversation, though in some cases it will be on the periphery of the caucus.
“I imagine there will be lots of conversations in hallways and nooks and crannies of bars in Montebello and so on,” said Mr. Silver.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: CHRIS PLECASH, JESSICA BRUNO
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