Part of me thinks international affairs will be shaping many of the debates in Ottawa for months to come. The world’s fragile fiscal system, its impact on Canada and what we are doing on the home front should see a few politicians get the lather on. Iran, Syria, Libya and other world trouble spots will consume time. Trade, trade, and more trade debates will fire up the oratory. More than a few people, both inside the Conservative Party and outside, will be watching what the government does on the Nexen-CNOOC deal. Also, who are we kidding? We will be staring across the border regularly now to see what happens with the U.S. presidential election.
Domestically, I am sure in some quarters an old school obsession will remain with Quebec’s new separatist premier and the games she may play. Personally, I think the federal parliament and those who cover it need not fall into paralysis over this as has been the case in the past. Most people in Quebec and the rest of Canada are in mindsets quite different than 1980 or 1995. Besides, Pauline Marois has to keep Quebec from going bankrupt first—hard to be an independent nation with no money.
The long leadership race of the Liberals will no doubt get tongues wagging if the can’t-miss prince Justin Trudeau enters the contest. Justin should never be underestimated! He’ll garner a disproportionate amount of media attention for a battle to lead the third party. Welcome to 2012, Trudeau sycophants, a modern-day Trudeaumania will be much harder to achieve in this multi-layered communications environment. Hey Liberals, if you crown another can’t-miss leader and overlook building your machine infrastructure, developing some compelling offering other than ‘we-are-the-almighty-destined-Liberal-Party,’ you are dumber than dumb.
This fall will be Tom Mulcair’s first full session as opposition leader. I’ll be watching to see if–as he says he will—he starts proposing some things as opposed to just opposing. Saying the Tories suck ad nauseum won’t be enough to get the NDP into power. But he’ll also want to be careful not to put a target on his back in terms of a policy option that the government can blast away. I think the NDP’s Sherbrooke Declaration and Mulcair’s strong endorsement of it could be a huge Achilles heel to NDP growth in the rest of Canada. Marois’ moves may also cause Mulcair some caucus management challenges with his 50-plus MPs from Quebec. Bloc Orange anyone? A sour version of Orange Crush.
For the Conservatives and the PM, the steely focus on the economy will remain. The iron-fist management style often criticized, but generally effective, will likely continue. That said, the PM and his government will want to get tone and temperament right in the House of Commons. No need to go all Lawrence Welk, but dialing down the Iron Maiden wouldn’t hurt. Also the government will want to play less defence on things like the F-35 and the character of government debates. He who sets the agenda, wins the day!
Conservatives feeling the heat, desperate to change the channel: NDP
I know Tim Powers was a keen observer of the NDP planning session in St. John’s a few weeks ago. He even made the trek to his home province to witness the New Democrats’ growing popularity in Newfoundland and Labrador.
As a seasoned political operator, I know Tim noticed how strong and united the New Democrat team is under the leadership of Tom Mulcair. A serious, disciplined, and thoughtful official opposition, some things Canadians hadn’t seen in a long time—until the NDP took over the job after the 2011 election.
Perhaps this is why Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are uttering nonsense about a phantom carbon tax proposal that was never proposed. Conservatives are feeling the heat, and they are desperate to change the channel.
But Tim need not worry about us—NDP MPs will continue to hold Harper and his Conservatives to account. In contrast, Harper spent the spring dealing with scandals, making excuses for his ministers, refusing to make amends for their mismanagement of the F-35 fighter jets fiasco, and defending the Conservatives’ sneaky and unpopular budget. No wonder there is growing unease inside Harper’s own caucus.
Tim can expect New Democrats to put forward practical ideas, showing Canadians they have a clear choice between a Conservative government that will listen only to their powerful friends and the oil lobby, and a strong New Democrat team who listens to Canadians.
Fresh from a tour of southwestern Ontario on jobs and the economy, Mulcair and his team will bring forward ideas to strengthen Canada’s shaky economy, promote responsible and sustainable policies for our resource development and repair the damage Conservatives are creating, damages to things like our pension system, employment insurance or health care.
These will be the key issues for the fall session. Key debates between an old, tired, and ethically-challenged Conservative government plagued by scandals and mismanagement; and a re-energized, substantive, and structured NDP opposition working hard to get ready to replace the Conservatives in 2015.
In other news, the Liberal Party still doesn’t have a leader.
Harper IS the Tory Party of Canada: Liberal
Nothing matters, so much, in the coming Parliamentary session. Not unless Harper approves it, that is.
No other Parliamentarian comes close. Past Prime Ministers have power—one, in fact, was called a “Friendly Dictator,” which was as absurd as it was inaccurate—but none had power like Harper.
So policies, and personalities, don’t matter so much in Ottawa. They come and go. All that matters is Harper’s point of view.
That Stephen Harper is the undisputed leader in Canadian politics—that he utterly dominates the landscape, in a way no one else does—is a fact. It is also a blessing and a curse for the Conservative Party of Canada.
It is a blessing in the sense that Harper, more than any other person, is responsible for all of his party’s successes. It has been a long time in the making. About a decade ago, Harper commenced working on a three-step plan to transform Canada.
First, he brought together the warring factions of the right. He convinced Reformers and Progressive Conservatives that, unless they came together as a single conservative force, the Liberals would continue to beat them.
Second, Harper set to work on destroying the brand of the most successful political machine in western democracy, the Liberal Party.
Harper knew his principal rival was, and remains, the Grits. Over a decade, Harper has methodically deconstructed the Liberals, to the point where the once Natural Governing Party is a rump in the House of Commons.
Finally, Harper has moved his party to the centre, and shed much of the racism and extremism that once was synonymous with the Reform Party. He now has the most ethnically diverse caucus in the House of Commons, and he has purged most of the rednecked mouth-breathers who dominated his caucus. Just a few weeks ago, he mercilessly put down a social conservative attempt to reopen the abortion debate.
His successes are myriad. So, too, his adversaries. Their corpses—Dion, Ignatieff, Rae, and others—litter the political landscape.
Stephen Harper is a winner. So what will happen when the winner departs?
He will, eventually. He is not a wealthy man. He is not too old. Multiple corporate sinecures await, along with lucrative speaking engagements and honourary degrees. In private life, he will be held in high regard, and he will be rich beyond imagining.
Herein, the curse. His party will face annihilation when Harper departs. They will be destroyed.
Harper, you see, is not merely the face and voice of the Conservative Party of Canada—he IS the Conservative Party of Canada. Every win, every major achievement, can be traced back to him.
His Cabinet, and his caucus, not so much. Like many Prime Ministers, Harper has not given much thought to succession. He has groomed no one. No prince (or princess) waits in the wings, waiting to assume the throne.
The Conservative Party has invested so much in Harper, it has nothing left to invest in a successor.
The Conservative strength is, paradoxically, their weakness. Their dynasty started with Stephen Harper, and it will end with him.
Original Article
Source: hill times
Author: TIM POWERS, KARL BéLANGER AND WARREN KINSELLA
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