Could political polarization already be yesterday’s game? This week saw flip-flops by both the Tories and NDP on key policy positions, bringing both parties closer to the political centre — and potentially bringing the Liberal party back into contention for government.
First, the Conservatives released their Economic Update on November 13. Deficits are now forecast to extend into fiscal 2016 — and listen to what Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had to say about it:
“As I have said on many occasions, balanced budgets are not an end in themselves. They are a means to an end, and that end is a better, more prosperous future for all Canadians.”
As columnist Michael Den Tandt noted in the National Post this week, that stance torches whatever was left of the Reform Party’s fiscal legacy. It’s not just the ink that’s red: increasingly, it appears the Tories might be too.
Then the NDP did an even more amazing about-face on November 15, coming out in favour of free trade deals. Trade critic Don Davies took pains to explain that the party is not in favour of all such agreements, but only those which are of “net benefit” to Canada, including deals with “complementary economies” such as that of Japan. How the NDP will sell this to its labour base is anybody’s guess, considering that the Canadian Auto Workers called on the federal government to halt trade negotiations with Japan earlier this year over fears of job losses in the domestic auto sector.
Why are the Tories and New Democrats moderating their economic policies? More importantly, why now? For the Conservatives, the reason is likely an economic reality check. The Tories are trying to put the best spin on bad economic news: their forecasts are off, their revenues are lower than projected and they are staring down both a fiscal cliff in the United States and a fiscal crisis in Europe. The new reality demands a rethink — either cut spending more, raise taxes, or balance the books later.
The Tories probably figure they can get the least grief by choosing door number three. If they’re lucky, the Americans will pull back from the brink, the EU will get its act together, demand for natural resources will grow, and the government will actually meet its previous projections and bring the deficit to heel before the next election in 2015. They are playing a variation of Paul Martin’s game when he was finance minister: instead of predicting balanced budgets and getting a surplus, the Conservatives are predicting deficits in the hopes of achieving a balanced budget.
For the NDP, their about-face is likely due to a political reality check. Poll after poll suggests their honeymoon with voters is over: the Liberals, particularly under Justin Trudeau, are gaining support at their expense. Hard-left polemics will not win back departing centrist voters, so the NDP needs to moderate its positions to appear less radical.
But they still need to pick their battles, and cannot wholly abandon their left-leaning roots. Free trade is a pretty easy place to start: fighting its expansion is about as futile as fighting the tide. The NDP is also putting its traditional protectionist spin on the issue: as Thomas Mulcair thundered in the House of Commons this week, ”The New Democrats support trade. We just do not support selling out Canada.”
In other words, free trade if necessary, but not necessarily free trade.
What might be the impact of this shift to the centre for both parties? It depends on whether it extends beyond economics and into other policy areas. For now, it appears that the Tories remain tough on crime, committed to cutting bureaucracy, hawkish on foreign relations and divided on social conservatism. Meanwhile the New Democrats remain fans of rehabilitation, big government, the United Nations and left-wing social causes.
Any big changes on those fronts might end the political polarization that has, until now, kept the Liberals squeezed out of contention — and further revive the fortunes of Canada’s Natural Governing Party.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics
Author: Tasha Kheiriddin
First, the Conservatives released their Economic Update on November 13. Deficits are now forecast to extend into fiscal 2016 — and listen to what Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had to say about it:
“As I have said on many occasions, balanced budgets are not an end in themselves. They are a means to an end, and that end is a better, more prosperous future for all Canadians.”
As columnist Michael Den Tandt noted in the National Post this week, that stance torches whatever was left of the Reform Party’s fiscal legacy. It’s not just the ink that’s red: increasingly, it appears the Tories might be too.
Then the NDP did an even more amazing about-face on November 15, coming out in favour of free trade deals. Trade critic Don Davies took pains to explain that the party is not in favour of all such agreements, but only those which are of “net benefit” to Canada, including deals with “complementary economies” such as that of Japan. How the NDP will sell this to its labour base is anybody’s guess, considering that the Canadian Auto Workers called on the federal government to halt trade negotiations with Japan earlier this year over fears of job losses in the domestic auto sector.
Why are the Tories and New Democrats moderating their economic policies? More importantly, why now? For the Conservatives, the reason is likely an economic reality check. The Tories are trying to put the best spin on bad economic news: their forecasts are off, their revenues are lower than projected and they are staring down both a fiscal cliff in the United States and a fiscal crisis in Europe. The new reality demands a rethink — either cut spending more, raise taxes, or balance the books later.
The Tories probably figure they can get the least grief by choosing door number three. If they’re lucky, the Americans will pull back from the brink, the EU will get its act together, demand for natural resources will grow, and the government will actually meet its previous projections and bring the deficit to heel before the next election in 2015. They are playing a variation of Paul Martin’s game when he was finance minister: instead of predicting balanced budgets and getting a surplus, the Conservatives are predicting deficits in the hopes of achieving a balanced budget.
For the NDP, their about-face is likely due to a political reality check. Poll after poll suggests their honeymoon with voters is over: the Liberals, particularly under Justin Trudeau, are gaining support at their expense. Hard-left polemics will not win back departing centrist voters, so the NDP needs to moderate its positions to appear less radical.
But they still need to pick their battles, and cannot wholly abandon their left-leaning roots. Free trade is a pretty easy place to start: fighting its expansion is about as futile as fighting the tide. The NDP is also putting its traditional protectionist spin on the issue: as Thomas Mulcair thundered in the House of Commons this week, ”The New Democrats support trade. We just do not support selling out Canada.”
In other words, free trade if necessary, but not necessarily free trade.
What might be the impact of this shift to the centre for both parties? It depends on whether it extends beyond economics and into other policy areas. For now, it appears that the Tories remain tough on crime, committed to cutting bureaucracy, hawkish on foreign relations and divided on social conservatism. Meanwhile the New Democrats remain fans of rehabilitation, big government, the United Nations and left-wing social causes.
Any big changes on those fronts might end the political polarization that has, until now, kept the Liberals squeezed out of contention — and further revive the fortunes of Canada’s Natural Governing Party.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics
Author: Tasha Kheiriddin
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