Justin Trudeau-led Liberals would win strong minority, poll says, while Marc Garneau-led Liberals would finish third

Liberal leadership frontrunner Justin Trudeau would lead his party back into power with a strong minority if an election were held today, while rival Marc Garneau would leave the party lagging in third place, a new poll suggests.

Four in 10 Canadians would vote for a Trudeau-led Liberal party, the Forum Poll for the National Post says, a statistic that hasn’t changed since the research company began polling on the possibility.

The Liberals under Trudeau would win 154 seats in the House of Commons, one short of a majority, with 109 seats going to the Conservatives and the NDP dropping sharply to 41 seats.

“There’s no question that a Liberal party led by Justin Trudeau would be favoured to win the election if it were held now, and they’d do it with the help of a significant tranche of soft NDP supporters, who appear to be parking their votes in the expectation of a Liberal messiah,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.

The party is set to elect a new leader at its April convention.

Trudeau has had a rocky start to his leadership campaign with trip-ups on issues such as the gun registry and his attitude towards the West. While Garneau earns kudos from many political pundits, the wonkish former astronaut has yet to start warming over Canadians.

With Garneau as Liberal leader, the party would only take 26% of the vote, trailing the NDP at 28% and the Conservatives at 33%. The Tories would form a minority government again with 140 seats compared to 89 for the NDP and 67 for the Liberals.

However, the Liberals would double their seats in such a scenario.

When asked about the Liberal leadership race, 39% of respondents said they would vote for Trudeau compared to 12% for Garneau.

Other Liberal leadership contenders such as Martha Hall Findlay and Deborah Coyne polled at an anemic 2% and 1%, respectively.

Trudeau does not seem to be hurt by his two-year-old comments in which he said blamed the nation’s problems on Albertan politicians.

“Canada isn’t doing well right now because it’s Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic agenda. It doesn’t work,” he told the Tele-Quebec program “Les francs-tireurs.”

He apologized for the remark, which only made the news this fall after polls showed that he appears to be a serious candidate for prime minister.

The poll also measured Canadians’ satisfaction with the current leadership, where Prime Minister Stephen Harper continues to own a dismal disapproval rating.

While 35% approve of his performance, his net approval rating is -22%. NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has a net favourable rating of 7% and interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae sits at 8%.

The Forum PollTM was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,355 randomly selected residents of Canada aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on December 18th, 2012. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2 %, 19 times out of 20.

Original Article
Source: national post
Author: Josh Visser