The budget documents will apparently go to the printer soon, after several aspects were thrashed out Thursday at a Treasury Board meeting.
That meeting was closed, naturally. But key details provided by government sources point to a budget far more about restraint (or “holding the line,” as the government calls it) than deep cuts.
The sources say spending on operations will actually rise 0.6 per cent.
Starting from this year’s base of $36.422 billion, total program spending in 2013-14 is projected at $36.673 billion (an increase of 0.689 per cent, to be exact.)
The PCs will also reveal an operating deficit of about $300 million. Just a few months ago, they promised never to do that. Now there can be “no denial,” one source said.
The details could still change somewhat. Premier Alison Redford’s office warned Friday night against grasping at stray facts, saying the numbers are not final and cabinet still has upcoming meetings to deal with budget decisions.
But, as I understand it, this is the program spending plan as printing day approaches.
A precise number for capital spending hasn’t emerged. However, it’s said to be about $5 billion. That would cut more than $700 million in project spending from earlier plans for 2013-14.
With $5 billion in capital added to the $36.6 billion operating budget, the budget will show combined spending well above $40 billion.
Many party people had wanted to stay below $40 billion, for obvious political reasons. Barring a midnight raid on the Queen’s Printer, that won’t happen.
Fiscal conservatives — especially those in Wildrose — are bound to be disappointed in a budget that contains no absolute, across-the-board cuts.
Redford will still paint this as a tough budget; and by real-world measures, she’ll have a point.
With inflation plus population growth expected to be 4.3 per cent in the next fiscal year, the 0.6 per cent spending hike doesn’t begin to cover new demands on services.
The government will claim it has actually cut more than $1 billion from the money needed to meet these growth-driven needs.
However the PCs split the hairs, there’s bound to be major impact on departments.
Long-term funding promises for health and education are obviously at risk.
Health was supposed to get an extra 4.5 per cent in 2013-14, the fourth year of a five-year pledge to provide predictable funding.
Keeping that full promise to the AHS spending machine would cost the government $720 million — nearly three times the entire program spending hike the government plans to announce.
Health care and education will get some extra money, but not nearly as much as expected — and promised.
To pay for even those smaller increases, the sources say, most of the other 16 government departments will face absolute cuts of varying degrees.
Job losses would seem inevitable, since the major cost in most departments is compensation.
Despite all this, the PCs will trumpet a savings plan.
At present, the Heritage Fund is only topped up annually for inflation. All other earnings go toward general spending.
The budget will promise that starting two years from now, 50 per cent of the fund earnings will be retained. After four years, 100 per cent will stay in the fund.
The government believes that the fund, now worth more than $16 billion, could top $30 billion within a decade.
One key number — the budget deficit for 2013-14 — is obviously missing from all this.
That little surprise is held close by the premier and a small core of ministers.
But if the revenue shortfall from the “bitumen bubble” next year is really $6 billion, it’s hard to see a deficit below $3 billion in 2013-14.
We’re missing one other number, too.
How much borrowing will be needed to keep the deficit within limits the public can swallow?
So far, that question elicits only silence.
Original Article
Source: calgaryherald.com
Author: Don Braid
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