That sentence, which may alarm Liberals, New Democrats and the Council of Canadians, is taken from an insightful, perceptive and likely controversial new book called The Big Shift.
Written by Globe and Mail columnist John Ibbitson and by Ipsos Global Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker, The Big Shift makes a persuasive, yet provocative argument that a new political alignment has emerged in Canada, an alignment that has propelled the Conservatives to power and which will dramatically and permanently change the Canadian narrative.
Middle-class, suburban Ontario voters, say the authors, have migrated into the Conservative Party camp, allying themselves with that party’s traditional voting base in the Prairies, in the British Columbia Interior, and in rural Canada.
Of course, we saw this surprising—some might say shocking—voting alliance between suburbia and traditional Tory voters materialize in the 2011 federal election.
In fact, the Conservative Party’s unexpected success in suburban ridings, particularly those surrounding downtown Toronto, is what gave Prime Minister Stephen Harper his majority government.
So this political partnership is not exactly news.
But what makes The Big Shift such a fascinating read, is that, using polling numbers, census data and lots of keen observation, Ibbitson and Bricker explain not only why this new alignment has taken place, but more importantly, why it will be an enduring fixture on Canada’s political landscape.
In other words, Harper’s majority victory in 2011 was no fluke.
Rather, the Conservative Party won because its emphasis on low taxes, balanced budgets, law and order, and a strong military, resonated not only with voters in Western and rural Canada, but also with Ontario’s suburbanites.
This is the big shift: voters in suburban Ontario now share many of the conservative values of their rural and Western compatriots.
That, say the book’s authors, is a political game-changer.
Interestingly, included in this game-changing shift is a key demographic: immigrant voters who have lived in Canada for more than 10 years and who now reside in the suburbs.
These immigrant voters, once solidly loyal to the Liberal Party, moved heavily to the Conservatives in the 2011 election because they liked the brand of conservatism Harper was selling.
What all this means is that the old governing consensus forged by what Ibbitson and Bricker call the “Laurentian elites” has been forever shattered.
By fashioning a strong and stable national coalition, linking Ontario suburbs with Westerners and rural Canadians, Harper’s Conservatives represent a “New Canada”, with new values, new attitudes and new priorities.
This will change the way we see ourselves as a nation and it will change the way we deal with issues like health care, education, foreign affairs and trade.
It also means the Opposition parties will have to adapt to a new Canadian reality if they want to successfully compete with the Conservatives.
Needless to say, Ibbitson and Bricker’s views probably won’t be accepted by those political, media and academic elites who, ignoring all the evidence, still cling to the notion that Harper’s 2011 victory was an aberration.
But they are deluding themselves.
Like it or not, Canada is changing demographically, culturally and politically in ways that will favour the Conservatives.
Plus these changes will affect more than just politicians.
They will also present both challenges and opportunities for anyone concerned with public policy or public attitudes.
So if you want to understand what makes the New Canada tick, The Big Shift, with its well-written, well-researched, non-partisan analysis, is an absolute must read.
Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com
Author: Gerry Nicholls
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