Stephen Harper’s not-so-permanent majority

Canadian conservatives are giddy with the notion that Canada is moving in their direction. A new book by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson argues that our country’s population has undergone a seismic shift toward the political right, a situation that will make Stephen Harper and his heirs “perpetually dominating.” The Big Shift inoculates itself against critique by asserting that anyone who doesn’t recognize this new national order is part of an out-of-touch clique they call “The Laurentian Elites.”

At the risk of seeming to fall into this category, I’d say that it’s actually the book’s authors who are missing the larger trend.

Canadian conservatives have a lot in common with their American counterparts: They seem to think that if they make twice as much noise they must be twice as numerous. You’d think they might be chastened by the hubris of U.S. strategist Karl Rove, who launched a plan 10 years ago to create a “permanent Republican majority,” and is now shunned by the party he ran into the ditch.

Bricker is a pollster, so here’s a number he may find compelling: Only last week, an EKOS poll found that just 37% of Canadians feel the country has been moving right. Not coincidentally, that is precisely the same percentage of Canadians who would vote for the Conservative party. That leaves 63% of the electorate favouring the centre and left. You can make the boughs of a tree creak in a new direction with a mighty wind, but the roots are not so easily moved.

There’s no debating that the Conservatives have worked hard to shape a new Canadian ethos. The question is whether or not they have been able to compress the population into the Jell-O mould they crafted for us.

You can tell Canadians that their identity lies in the Armed Forces, the Crown, hockey and Timbits — but you can’t will that to be true. And a recent survey by Nanos Research for the Institute for Research on Public Policy suggests that — in spite of millions spent on 1812 military commemorations, anniversary celebrations of the Russia-Canada hockey series, and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee — Canadians have been left cold. When asked what type of historic events Ottawa should be commemorating, respondents actually said they would have preferred to make a bigger deal of the 30th anniversary of that liberal sacred text, The Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Ibbitson and Bricker argue that Canada is being transformed by newcomers. Experience tells us that the more dependable pattern is for newcomers to be transformed by Canada. True, immigrants may bring old world values, but many come here precisely to escape rigid collective morals; and a good number harbour a distrust of government authority and militarism.

What the Tories have been good at is harnessing rural and suburban anger. Dissatisfaction in these parts of Canada may provide Mr. Harper with a good seat count, but it doesn’t represent a shift across demographics.

As for suburban resentment of urbanites, it’s not only a corrosive electoral strategy, it may be a short-lived one. Toronto Mayor Rob Ford surfed a wave of suburban anger into office. Today, 40% of those who voted for him say they regret it.

There’s a reason an under-qualified, mop-haired Liberal boy-king from Montreal is a threat to Harper’s Conservatives: Nostalgia for Pierre Trudeau’s left-wing utopianism is still a powerful force. And while it may be comforting for Canada’s conservatives to believe that the population is evolving toward their vision, the facts just don’t support that contention.

Original Article
Source: fullcomment.nationalpost.com
Author: John Moore